Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: How the Saudi-Iran deal might create diplomatic openings for India and Pakistan, former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s supporters conflict with police, and Nepal’s president faces a no-confidence vote.

If you want to obtain South Asia Brief in your inbox each Thursday, please join here.

A basic query about final week’s Beijing-mediated settlement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to revive diplomatic ties is that if it should maintain. Will the 2 bitter rivals truly take pleasure in a sustained rapprochement?

India and Pakistan have a powerful curiosity in seeing the accord succeed. Better Iran-Saudi relations would give each South Asian international locations extra diplomatic area to strengthen their very own connections—and particularly their business ties—with Tehran and Riyadh. However, due to their want to not upset Washington by shifting too near Iran, Islamabad and New Delhi will take a cautious strategy irrespective of the deal’s consequence.

Saudi Arabia, regardless of the occasional spat, is one among Pakistan’s closest allies. Riyadh is a longtime military partner and a frequent supply of financial assist to Islamabad, from bailout funds to remittances. Many Pakistani military and civilian leaders even have shut ties to the dominion.

By distinction, Pakistan and Iran have usually been at odds. They’ve accused each other of harboring militants that focus on the opposite and have backed opposing sides throughout battle in Afghanistan. Successive Pakistani governments have pitched themselves as impartial within the Saudi-Iran rivalry, and Islamabad beforehand sought to mediate a rapprochement. But to keep away from scary Saudi Arabia, Islamabad has avoided pushing nearer to Tehran. Aside from some commercial links, cooperation is comparatively restricted.

India, in the meantime, has historically carried out a extra profitable balancing act, pursuing strong business relations, particularly by means of power commerce, with each the Saudis and the Iranians. But since 2019, New Delhi has severely curtailed its power imports from Iran to keep away from violating U.S. sanctions, and it has ramped up trade with Saudi Arabia and the opposite members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which embody Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). India has additionally strengthened ties with the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which is closely influenced by Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies.

New Delhi’s assist for the Abraham Accords and participation in initiatives that emerged from them—such because the India-Israel-UAE-United States quadrilateral forum—have put it at odds with Tehran. India-Iran ties have been undercut by New Delhi’s rapidly growing ties with Israel, in addition to Tehran’s relations with Beijing. And final month, Iran’s international minister canceled a go to to India after a promotional video for the Raisina Dialogue, a thought management summit sponsored by India’s authorities, confirmed pictures of Iranian anti-government protesters.

Better Iran-Saudi Arabia relations would benefit Indian and Pakistani diplomacy. Both capitals already should navigate great-power competitors involving international locations which have essential relations with them (U.S.-Russia for India and U.S.-China for Pakistan). One fewer bitter rivalry to take care of can be a aid.

Iran-Saudi rapprochement might additionally release alternatives for India and Pakistan to focus extra on key financial initiatives with Iran. These embody growing the Chabahar port in southeastern Iran, which India envisions as a part of a connectivity hall ultimately extending to Afghanistan and Central Asia (New Delhi has already pledged assistance), and finishing {a partially} constructed Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, which might convey Pakistan a much-needed power safety increase.

Pakistan has an particularly giant stake in a profitable Iran-Saudi deal. It borders Iran, and up to 20 percent of Pakistan’s inhabitants is Shiite. At the identical time, due to its army alliance with Riyadh, it’s usually been pressured to ship troops to Saudi Arabia for coaching and stabilization functions, and to Bahrain and Yemen to assist advance Saudi safety pursuits. Pakistan has agreed to a few of these requests and declined others, however the stress makes it uncomfortable.

But the advantages of a profitable Iran-Saudi Arabia deal for India and Pakistan shouldn’t be overstated. Both international locations will proceed to be cautious of their dealings with Iran—and due to Washington, not Riyadh. The United States doesn’t need its companions doing enterprise with Tehran. India could have an in depth partnership with Russia, however its relationship with Iran is extra modest. This means, not like with Moscow, New Delhi has little incentive to have interaction extra with a core U.S. rival and threat angering Washington.

Similarly, Pakistan, within the throes of an acute financial disaster, gained’t need to upset the United States by participating extra with Iran: The United States is Pakistan’s top export destination, a main supply of bilateral financial help, and a nation with affect within the International Monetary Fund.

Islamabad and New Delhi will tread rigorously, regardless of any new diplomatic area generated by a profitable Iran-Saudi Arabia deal.

Biden ambassador choose confirmed. On Wednesday, the U.S. Senate voted 52 to 42 to approve President Joe Biden’s nomination of former Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti to be the subsequent U.S. ambassador to India. The submit has been vacant since January 2021—the longest hole within the historical past of U.S.-India relations. Biden nominated Garcetti in July 2021, however the affirmation course of was held up by allegations that Garcetti didn’t correctly deal with sexual harassment claims towards an aide throughout his time as mayor. Garcetti contends he knew nothing in regards to the allegations and would have acted if he did.

His affirmation was certainly not assured. Last week, he was authorised by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee thanks largely to 2 Republican senators voting in his favor. But different Republican senators had stated they wouldn’t approve his nomination. However, seven Republicans ended up backing him within the full Senate vote, which was crucial provided that three Democrats voted towards him.

In the top, it seems that the Senate emphasised the U.S. strategic crucial of confirming him, even whereas acknowledging issues about his previous administration failures. On Wednesday, Todd Young of Indiana, one of many two Republican senators to vote for Garcetti within the committee vote, said, “This has become a grave national security concern of mine—not to have an ambassador in place. Our strategic partners wouldn’t conceive of going two years into the establishment of a government … and failing to place their person in the role.” Garcetti was authorised just some months earlier than a possible state visit to Washington by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi this summer time.

Khan supporters conflict with police. On Tuesday, Pakistani police arrived at former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s residence in Lahore aspiring to arrest him on corruption expenses. Large teams of Khan supporters blocked their path, with some throwing stones at police, leading to a violent confrontation that concerned police use of tear fuel and water cannons. Throughout the disaster, Khan remained holed up in his residence.

In the top, the police left with out an arrest—simply the newest occasion in current weeks of the state not following up on its menace to arrest Khan. On Wednesday, the police said they’d pause their arrest operation till Thursday due to the necessity to allocate assets to safety for a cricket match. But on Thursday, a excessive courtroom in Lahore postponed the operation till Friday.

Khan’s backers consider the big present of assist exterior his home scared off the police, and so they applauded his choice to not merely flip himself in in response to corruption expenses that they consider to be false and politically motivated. Khan’s critics consider he’s making a mockery of the regulation by not turning himself in after being served with arrest warrants and lacking a number of courtroom appearances.

While one could attribute the state’s repeated unfulfilled arrest threats to indecisiveness, it might even be an intimidation tactic—one meant to maintain Khan and his supporters unsure and apprehensive about his destiny. Khan can also be threatened by disqualification. Last October, election officers disqualified Khan from holding public workplace on each corruption and terrorism expenses that he rejects as false. His attorneys are contesting that decision in courtroom, although his backers worry that the federal government and army management could attempt to construct a stronger case towards him. If the disqualification choice is upheld, Khan would theoretically be ineligible to run in nationwide elections later this yr.

Art college college students give closing touches to a portray of Indian actors N.T. Rama Rao Jr. and Ram Charan from the Indian movie RRR—whose viral dance tune “Naatu Naatu” made Oscars historical past on Sunday as the primary tune from an Indian movie to win the Academy Award for Best Original Song—alongside a road in Mumbai on March 13.Indranil Mukherjee/AFP through Getty Images

Indian movies win Oscars. This yr’s Academy Awards gave Indians two huge causes to rejoice. For the primary time, a tune from an Indian movie gained an Oscar: “Naatu Naatu,” a number from the film RRR. And The Elephant Whisperers turned the primary Indian documentary to win an Oscar, within the Best Documentary Short class. Significantly, neither movie was made within the Hindu language. RRR is a Telugu-language movie, and The Elephant Whisperers is a Tamil manufacturing.

It’s a reminder that the Indian film enterprise extends far beyond Bollywood, India’s internationally recognized Hindi-language movie business (some Indian film buffs have been upset when Academy Awards host Jimmy Kimmel wrongly described RRR as a Bollywood movie). Telugu-language movies have their very own business, often known as Tollywood, whereas Tamil-language movies are a part of what’s known as the Kollywood business.

Since 2008, when Nepal shifted from a monarchy to a republic, the nation has had 11 completely different governments. By comparability, the nation’s presidency, whereas a comparatively ceremonial submit, has been a uncommon bastion of political stability. Ram Chandra Poudel, who took the oath of office on Monday, turned simply the third Nepalese president since 2008, after being elected final week by the nationwide and provincial parliaments.

But Poudel has discovered himself on the middle of Nepal’s newest political firestorm. The choice final month of Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who took workplace solely a number of months in the past, to endorse Poudel—a member of the opposition Nepali Congress social gathering—as his presidential alternative triggered resignations from a dozen senior ministers, that means that Dahal should now face a no-confidence vote later this month. With Poudel having gained the presidential election, will probably be much more tough for Dahal to make up along with his coalition companions.

That stated, Dahal might nicely come out of this high-quality: Experts say he might prevail within the no-confidence vote, due to assist from a Nepali Congress social gathering that he’s labored with up to now. But the nation’s risky politics will proceed to churn, with one more new governing coalition doubtless within the offing.

• Staring Down the Black Hole of Russia’s Future by Anastasia Edel

• Putin Is Trapped in the Sunk-Cost Fallacy of War by David V. Gioe

• Don’t Trust Russia’s Numbers by Agathe Demarais

Academic Fatima Waqi Sajjad, writing in Dawn, requires adjustments in Pakistan’s schooling system to handle the issue of well-educated folks changing into extremists. “Extremist ideologies lose their appeal,” she writes, “when education allows young minds to think freely and inspire social change.”

Former army adviser Lt. Gen. Prakash Menon, reflecting in The Print on India’s tensions with China and Pakistan, argues that India have to be ready to combat three completely different potential forms of battle. “Nuclear, conventional and non-conventional war must be viewed as layers that constitute war and blend in varying degrees into each other. They are connected and could be occurring within the same war.”

An editorial within the Dhaka Tribune describes the erosion, salinity, encroachments, and habitat losses that characterize the present disaster in Bangladesh’s rivers. Any correctives “will require a coordinated effort among policymakers, scientists, and the public to develop and implement sustainable solutions that balance economic development with environmental conservation.”