Friday’s match ensured that the race among the middle of the table teams in IPL 2021 remains a close one with Punjab Kings (PBKS) beating Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and climbing up to fifth slot for the moment. Every match from here on affects not only the teams playing but others similarly placed too.
After the KKR vs PBKS match on Friday, there are now 11 league stage matches to play. Over Saturday and Sunday, 4 of these matches will be done and dusted. By Sunday night, the playoffs race picture should be a much clearer one.
Shankar Raghuraman of TOI has done the calculations to show the probabilities of each team qualifying after Friday’s game, assuming that in any given match the chances of winning or losing are 50-50.
The analysis also ignores net run rates, since, with two to three games left for each team, current NRRs could change quite a bit.
Here are all the playoff possibilities for the teams in the race for the playoffs, with 11 league stage matches left to play:
1) CSK are already through to the playoffs and they now have a 99.2% chance of finishing within the top two or at least tying for one of those slots.
2) DC too are sure to qualify and can do no worse than joint third. Their chances of finishing in the top two or tying for one of those slots are now at 85%.
3) RCB will not miss out on qualifying on points though interestingly they still could on net run rate with a 1% chance of them being tied for fourth. Their chances of making the top two on points are just under 41% now.
4) Despite their loss on Friday, KKR remain in fourth position, but their chances of staying within the top four on points at the end of the league have dropped to 37.5% from 57%. They no longer can make the top two.
5) PBKS have moved up to fifth place with the same 10 points as KKR and have a 36.7% chance of ending up in the top four on points. They too cannot make the top two.
6) While MI are currently lower ranked than KKR and PBKS with the same points, the extra game in hand they have means their chances of ending up among the top four on points are much brighter at 66%. They still can make the top two or at least tie for one of those slots, though there’s only a 0.8% chance of that happening.
7) RR have a 25% chance of ending up among the top four on points and no chance of making the top two.
8) Realistically, as things stand, CSK, DC and RCB are the ones competing for the top slots (eventual placement in final four) with the four others (KKR, PBKS, MI and RR) competing for one slot for all practical purposes. SRH are already out of the race for the playoffs.

How are we arriving at these probabilities?
The process starts with listing out every possible scenario that remains in terms of combination of individual match outcomes. As of Saturday morning, with 11 games left to play, that means 2,048 (two possibilities for the first game, each of which has two for the next game and so on, yielding a total of 2 raised to the power 11 or 2,048). We then look at what each scenario means in terms of the final points tally for each team and what rank that puts them at (ignoring NRR, which cannot be forecast in advance). The probabilities for each team are then calculated by dividing the number of scenarios in which it finishes in the top four by the total number of possible scenarios, as of now 2,048, and multiplying by 100.
Teams that are on the same number of points can have different probabilities because of what matches they have left and also how matches involving other teams affect their final placing. For instance, MI is lower placed than KKR and PK right now with the same points and a lower net run rate, but the extra game in hand gives them a better chance of qualifying.
What were the playoff possibilities at the end of September 30? Find out HERE.