Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s note of extreme caution in yesterday’s Mann ki Baat echoed the nationwide surge of coronavirus cases in the past week. India added nearly two lakh cases in four days with earlier hotspots like Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai giving way to a more pan-India distribution of new cases. The pandemic is entering a phase where backward districts in states like Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh and Bengal will start reporting more cases. It is for this scenario that time was bought through nationwide lockdowns. We now know that a vast majority recovers with no, few or mild symptoms. But governments must adequately equip district and taluk hospitals for those requiring medical care.

Emphasis must be on reducing mortality at all costs. Delhi’s story is relevant for states witnessing a surge now because a decline could follow if the outbreak is managed in orderly fashion. After several mistakes, Delhi ramped up testing, improved various processes at its hospitals, and lined up thousands of beds in auxiliary care centres besides reposing faith in home isolation. Citizens were therefore reassured about government’s preparedness. Improved treatment protocols have also helped. A sero survey pointing to 23% Delhiites developing antibodies, an estimated 45 lakh people, adds to the body of knowledge.

The highly contagious virus jumping asymptomatically across lakhs of people calls for rethink of repeating economically bruising lockdowns. Regions now experiencing a surge may also be witnessing similar asymptomatic transmission. But to be certain we need more data and scientifically designed sero surveys must commence across India without delay, to be repeated at regular intervals. This will help understand if Delhi and Mumbai’s decline proceeds from the virus running into too many people with antibodies.

The impending Unlock 3.0 needs a reality check with many states reposing faith in lockdowns, even weekend ones. Delhi’s experience with and without lockdowns has convinced Karnataka chief minister BS Yediyurappa to oppose lockdowns but he is the exception. India tested 4.42 lakh samples on Saturday up from 2.15 lakh on June 25 and must keep scaling it up. Early testing helps patients stay on the radar of health officials and facilitates hospitalisation for those whose symptoms take a serious turn. Where doctors and health facilities are in short supply, governments must go the extra mile to ramp up messaging on masks and community surveillance. A test of state capacity in India’s poorest regions begins.