Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: The Maldives prepares for a presidential runoff with penalties for great-power competitors, former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif might return from self-exile, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wraps up a rocky journey to New Delhi.

With no outright winner within the Maldives presidential election final Saturday, the nation is getting ready for a runoff on Sept. 30 between the highest two contenders. Main opposition candidate Mohamed Muiz—the mayor of the capital metropolis, Male—took 46 p.c of the vote, whereas incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih got here in second with 39 p.c of the vote. Geopolitics solid a protracted shadow over the election, and the identical can be true of the runoff.

Like many international locations in South Asia, the Maldives has turn into a battleground for India-China competitors; the island nation is strategically positioned within the middle of the Indian Ocean. This great-power competitors is now a fault line in home politics. Muiz is seen as pro-China and anti-India—very similar to his jailed political ally, Abdulla Yameen, who cultivated stronger ties with Beijing as president from 2013 to 2018. Solih, in the meantime, helps boosting relations with India.

This sample of political rivals gravitating towards rival overseas powers is comparatively current for the nation. The Maldives declared independence from the British in 1965, and for 4 a long time it fell squarely underneath India’s sphere of affect. India’s authorities backed dictator Maumoon Abdul Gayoom for his 30-year rule, which resulted in 2008. That 12 months, the Maldives held its first democratic election, bringing Mohamed Nasheed to energy. New Delhi embraced him as effectively.

Yameen took energy in 2013, and the nation slid again towards authoritarianism. During his tenure, China moved in with new infrastructure initiatives and a trade agreement. Soon afterward, the Maldives turned a proper accomplice in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. By 2018, Beijing had accomplished major projects within the nation, together with a brand new runway on the fundamental worldwide airport.

But when Solih was elected president that very same 12 months, the geopolitical tables turned once more. The chief established an “India First” policy to strengthen partnership between Male and New Delhi, together with pulling out of the commerce take care of Beijing. In return, India accredited $1.4 billion to assist the Maldives finance loan paybacks to China. India additionally dedicated funds for neighborhood improvement initiatives, a brand new cancer hospital, a brand new port, and an airport upgrade.

When India launched its COVID-19 vaccine diplomacy marketing campaign in 2021, the Maldives was the first country to obtain pictures: 100,000 doses of the Covishield vaccine. Last 12 months, Solih visited New Delhi and signed agreements on cybersecurity, catastrophe administration, and infrastructure, together with a venture announced in 2021 that may join Male to 3 islands by way of a 6.74-kilometer (4.2-mile) sea bridge.

Yameen pushed again, a minimum of till his legal woes worsened. Last 12 months, the previous president launched a marketing campaign he referred to as “India Out,” taking a tough line on New Delhi, together with calling for the cancellation of protection offers. Muiz has pursued the same place, vowing to expel all Indian army personnel from the Maldives if he wins the presidency; a spokesperson for his get together not too long ago called this place “non-negotiable.”

Although his “India First” coverage indicators his sturdy inclination for partnership with New Delhi, Solih’s place within the great-power competitors is extra balanced than that of his rivals. He has not taken a confrontational stance towards Beijing, hosting senior Chinese officers and concluding a series of business and cultural accords with China. And throughout his time period, cooperation with India has picked up quickly, particularly with regards to infrastructure.

To view the Maldives presidential election purely as a referendum on great-power rivalry can be an exaggeration, although. Muiz’s shock success within the first spherical could be attributed to factors which will relate extra to home issues than to public preferences for friendship with Beijing over New Delhi. Those embrace issues about Solih’s handling of corruption allegations and fractures inside his get together.

Still, it’s no small matter that rival political leaders in a nonaligned state are associating themselves with competing powers. Some observers say that Yameen, who previously held a much less hostile place towards India, might have adopted his “India Out” stance as a cynical ploy for votes. The marketing campaign produced some anti-India sentiment and protests, but it surely’s troublesome to gauge its affect on public opinion towards India on the entire within the Maldives.

Beijing and New Delhi will definitely watch the result of this month’s runoff intently. Perhaps solely in Nepal—the place China has reportedly intervened to unite leftist events aligned with the federal government in Beijing—has India-China competitors seeped so deeply into home politics. But in Kathmandu, nobody looking for to move the federal government has campaigned on a platform demanding that India or China drastically curtail their affect.

Nawaz Sharif to return to Pakistan? On Tuesday, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) announced that the get together’s chairman, former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, will return to Pakistan on Oct. 21. He exiled himself to London in 2019, citing medical causes. Sharif beforehand served three phrases as premier, the final lower quick in 2017 when he was disqualified from politics on corruption fees. He has confronted authorized bother ever since.

Sharif’s trajectory resembles that of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan (ousted in April 2022) and different Pakistani leaders: He rose to the head of energy due to sturdy relations with the army, and he misplaced it after he fell out with the generals. Sharif’s brother, Shehbaz, led the federal government that handed over energy to a caretaker administration final month.

Just beforehand, Pakistan’s parliament passed laws reducing the size of political disqualifications to 5 years, seemingly paving the way in which for Nawaz Sharif to return and contest elections, that are anticipated early subsequent 12 months. But some warning is so as: Throughout Pakistan’s historical past, exiled leaders have promised to return solely to renege. Sharif’s get together at present has army backing, however its poor financial efficiency whereas in management has made it unpopular with the general public.

Khan’s giant assist base despises Sharif, viewing him as incompetent and corrupt. The PML-N might hesitate to deliver him again if it isn’t satisfied that his return will energize the get together base and place it to triumph in elections.

Trudeau’s rocky New Delhi journey. In a weird coda to final weekend’s G-20 summit in New Delhi, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau left India on Tuesday after getting caught for 2 further days on account of a mechanical drawback together with his airplane. Local media report that the Canadian authorities declined a suggestion from New Delhi for him to fly house on a jet utilized by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and different senior officers.

The uncommon delay provided fodder to Trudeau’s critics in India, the place many individuals are sad with him for not doing sufficient to handle New Delhi’s long-running concerns about Sikh protesters in Canada that the Indian authorities says are separatist agitators. Trudeau has countered that the problems of rule of regulation and freedom of speech restrict his choices for taking motion.

Trudeau additionally had a clumsy assembly with Modi on the sidelines of the G-20 summit, throughout which the Indian chief reiterated issues about Sikh activists. Earlier this month, Canada additionally introduced it will pause talks on a commerce accord with India, saying that it needed to take inventory of the negotiations. Perhaps tellingly, Trudeau reportedly did not take any diplomatic conferences throughout his further two days in India. However, when he departed on Tuesday, there was an Indian senior official on the airport to see him off.

Sri Lanka ransomware assault. On Monday, Sri Lanka’s authorities confirmed native reviews that its cloud system was hit by a serious ransomware attack on Aug. 26, possible triggered by somebody with a Sri Lankan authorities e-mail account clicking on a suspicious hyperlink. The assault was repelled inside 12 hours, however the roughly 5,000 individuals with Sri Lankan authorities e-mail accounts completely lost data from between May and August as a result of there was no system backup in place throughout that point.

Officials investigating the assault noted that the federal government cloud used a model of Microsoft Exchange that made it extremely weak. The incident is a sobering reminder of Colombo’s lack of sturdy cybersecurity, though it did move laws earlier this 12 months that may set up its first cybersecurity nationwide authority. Sri Lanka ranks 83rd out of 175 international locations within the e-Governance Academy Foundation’s National Cyber Security Index, which measures international locations’ preparedness to handle cyber threats.

On Wednesday, Chinese diplomat Zhao Sheng offered his credentials in Kabul, formally turning into the primary new ambassador from any nation to Afghanistan for the reason that Taliban takeover greater than two years in the past. Zhao’s arrival presents a public relations boon to the Taliban, though no nation—together with China—has acknowledged the regime. The group pulled out all of the stops for the brand new ambassador on Wednesday and suggested that Zhao’s appointment signifies that different international locations ought to strengthen engagement, too.

China’s choice to ship a brand new ambassador to Kabul is the newest indication that it might ultimately turn into the primary nation to acknowledge the Taliban authorities. Before the takeover, Chinese officers hosted high-level engagements with Taliban leaders, and Beijing has since expressed a want to put money into the nation’s pure assets. (Its solely identified acquisition to date is an oil extraction agreement signed in January between the Taliban and a Chinese power firm.)

Unlike a lot of Afghanistan’s neighbors, China has loved constantly pleasant relations with Kabul for the previous two years. The fundamental impediment to Beijing’s recognition of the Taliban regime is safety issues.

The Taliban have trumpeted current crackdowns on Islamic State-Khorasan militants that attacked Chinese targets, however China stays involved. It can be frightened in regards to the risk posed by a small group led by Uyghur militants, in addition to the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, which is predicated in Afghanistan and has attacked Chinese initiatives over the border in Pakistan. Until Beijing is satisfied that the Taliban is addressing these issues, recognition stays unlikely.