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It’s fairly attainable that this could possibly be a huge mistake, however I’ve requested 9 of my co-workers to hitch me in a season-long NFL picks contest.
And by mistake, it is not as a result of we might seem like a bunch of dummies — which we most likely will — however extra so as a result of I’ll be chasing them down each week to decide on three video games, towards the unfold, for the following 4 months. That alone is the rationale we’re doing three video games as a substitute of 5, which is what you usually see in an excellent contest.
We’ll preserve monitor as we go, with every win gaining some extent and every push as a half level. As for the prize of first place and the punishment of final place? We’re open to ideas.
Week 1 Trends
Nobody likes the Patriots
Six of us are taking PHI -4 and nobody is backing the Patriots. It’s sq.. It’s the general public facet. But it is onerous to unsee what’s been seen this offseason.
The Pros, who’re on NE +4, will level out that the Patriots made a significant improve at offensive coordinator. And that over the past decade, groups coming off a Super Bowl loss are simply 3-7 towards the unfold in Week 1. And that New England nonetheless has Bill Belichick, who absolutely has been planning a strategy to decelerate Jalen Hurts over the past 4 months.
But us Joes? It’s onerous to think about Mac Jones getting sufficient time to throw the ball behind an offensive line that has — optimistically — had restricted time collectively. Especially going up towards an Eagles defensive entrance that even Belichick admitted was most likely the very best in soccer. Personally, the Eagles simply do not match the invoice for a Super Bowl hangover. They have a younger, ascending quarterback. A dominant defensive entrance. Excellent pass-catching weapons. And Matt Patricia (simply kidding).
Packers backers (3-0) and Viking quests (3-0)
The early-season optimism for the Chicago Bears fully missed this group. We’ve bought three bets on the Packers to cowl +1 on the street. They’re one of many larger mysteries on the board as they flip to Jordan Love with a win complete of seven.5 — their lowest in 16 years.
Minnesota was additionally fairly in style this week at -5.5. We’ve bought three bets on the Vikings, or extra appropriately, three bets towards the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who’re as soon as once more with no franchise quarterback and destined to return to the underside of the NFC. Baker Mayfield (TB) is simply 29-41-1 ATS since coming into the league, according to the Action Network.
Are we overrating the Steelers (3-1)?
NFC runner-up San Francisco is a 2-point favourite in Pittsburgh. Although they have been good as street underdogs underneath Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are simply 1-5 ATS in season openers.
Even as Kenny Pickett enters his second season, the largest distinction for the Steelers may be T.J. Watt. Pittsburgh was 8-2 with Watt final yr and simply 1-6 with out him. He’s wholesome and sits at +800 to win DPOY.
Four video games we have been too afraid to the touch
- CAR +3.5 at ATL
- TEN +3 at NO
- LV +3.5 at DEN
- BUF -2.5 at NYJ
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