The first three weeks of the NFL season has produced more points than any opening three weeks in league history. Things didn’t slow down on Thursday night when two of the worst teams in the league put a combined 65 points on the scoreboard.

Betting on the “over” in each of the first 49 games this season would have rewarded the bettor with a mind boggling 30-19 record. Oddsmakers have begun to make adjustments, and the current over/under point totals are the highest weekly averages posted in recent memory.

Theories abound as to why point totals are up in the NFL. Some people feel as though the pandemic has kept defensive units from having enough practice time to be effective. Others feel as though the lack of fans has made road games less hostile, leading to fewer mistakes by visiting offenses.

My own theory is that offenses are benefitting from a slight change in the way games are being officiated. Offensive holding penalties are being called less, while defensive pass interference calls are on the rise.

At some point the oddsmakers are going to go too far in raising the point totals, and as a sports bettor, it’s important to begin to fade the overs at the right time. It’s never fun to sit back and root for points to not be scored, but taking the “Under” when the time is right will be very beneficial to your bankroll management.       

Last week’s picks:

BENGALS (+4 ½) @ Eagles: This game verified the two primary opinions I had coming into this matchup: Joe Burrow is good at football, and the Philadelphia Eagles are not. Carson Wentz continued his poor play while Joe Burrow showed great poise. Burrow kept his inferior roster competitive before the game ended in a tie. Bengals 23, Eagles 23 – WIN

PACKERS (+3) @ Saints: When you think about the Saints, you think of future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees, and you think of Sean Payton, the innovative offensive minded head coach. But the Saints are one notch lower on the dominance meter than they’ve been in the past, and when the oddsmakers are giving points to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, you take the points and run. Rodgers completed passes to eight difference receivers and led the Packers to the victory. Packers 37, Saints 27 – WIN

STEELERS (-4) vs. Texans: This pick didn’t look good as Deshaun Watson and the Texans built up a 14-3 lead early in the 2nd quarter. But the Steelers made adjustments on defense to take Watson out of his comfort zone. On the other side of the ball, the Texans were unable to stop the rushing game of the Steelers. This recipe allowed for the Steelers to take over the game and cruise to the victory. Steelers 28, Texans 21 – WIN

CHIEFS (+3 ½) @ Ravens: I don’t think anyone could have predicted what took place during the marquee matchup on Monday night featuring two elite quarterbacks in Pat Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. The Ravens took a quick 3-0 lead before the Chiefs completely dominated the next two quarters of play and led 27-10 at the half. Baltimore had no answers in the 2nd half as the Chiefs rolled to the victory. Mahomes passed for 387 yards while the Kansas City defense held Jackson to only 97 yards in the air. Chiefs 34, Ravens 20 – WIN

OVER 61.5 rushing yards by Austin Ekeler – Panthers @ Chargers (-110): The Chargers were a touchdown favorite coming into the game. But the Panthers built up an 18-7 lead, forcing the Chargers to put the ball in the air. Ekeler ended up just short of the number needed to cash. Panthers 21, Chargers 16 – Austin Ekeler – 59 rushing yards – LOSS

UNDER 5 ½ combined team TD’s – Bears @ Falcons (-155): Through 3 quarters of play it looked like we were going to nail this pick. The game was going as I expected, with the Falcons building up a lead, and the Bears being too inept on offense to score enough TD’s. But the Bears benched Mitchell Trubisky in favor of Nick Foles, who proceeded to throw three 4th quarter touchdowns to knock us out of the cash. Bears 30, Falcons 26 – LOSS

This week’s picks:

COWBOYS (-4 ½) vs. Browns: Without the benefit of a miracle on-side kick recovery, the Cowboys would be 0-3. And while their two losses were against two talented teams in the Rams and Seahawks, there are no moral victories in the NFL. The Browns are riding high after back to back wins against the Bengals and Washington. But the last time Cleveland went up against a quality team they were blown out by the Ravens. The Dallas defense has to get better this week if they want to save their season. And while Cleveland has a stud running back in Nick Chubb to go along with a talented wide receiver group, the Cowboys are too talented on paper to lose this game at home. Look for the Cowboys to cover.

SEAHAWKS (-6 ½) @ Dolphins: This has all the makings of a classic trap game for the Seahawks. Their defense is horrible and they’re coming off an emotional win against the Cowboys. Miami was able to notch its first win of the season last week against the Jaguars. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was extremely efficient in the win. But the mental makeup of this Seahawks team is special, and most of that is due to their leader in quarterback Russ Wilson. Look for the Dolphins to make some noise early, but in the end the Seahawks will beat the number to gain and move to 4-0 on the season against the spread.

CARDINALS (-3 ½) @ Panthers: Arizona has been coughing up the football at an alarming rate. Quarterback Kyler Murray has more interceptions than touchdown passes this season. The Panthers are still reeling from losing superstar running back Christian McCaffrey to injury. They were able to get a win last week but that was a result of their defense creating four takeaways. Murray threw three interceptions last week against the Lions, yet only lost the game by three points. The Panthers are 1-6-1 against the spread in their last eight games. The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a losing record. If the Cardinals hold onto the football, their defense will keep the Panthers in check allowing an easy cover in this one.

UNDER (48) Giants @ Rams: This game is set up to be a blowout win for the Rams. The big question is whether the Giants will be able to dent the scoreboard enough to affect the overall point total. The Giants offense has been in shambles and became worse when star running back Saquon Barkley was lost for the season due to injury. What will also help the point total is the fact that the Rams have run the football on 54% percent of their plays, which is the highest percentage in the NFL. Look for the Rams to score more than enough points to win the game handily, while keeping the Giants in check enough to keep the score under the projected point total.          

Prop bet:

OVER (29.5) Total Points by RAVENS (-110): The Ravens are going to want to get the bad taste out of their mouths following their performance against the Chiefs last Monday night. Look for them to send a statement against Washington this week and return to form on offense.