Nifty is having strong support at 17000, while on the upside 17350 may act as a hurdle for the index, crossing above the same can show upside movement.
By Rahul Shah
Equity benchmarks snapped their two-week winning streak dragged by banking and FMCG stocks. Both Sensex and Nifty fell nearly 1% each as investors evaluated economic risks from the US Federal Reserve monetary-policy tightening, Russia’s war in Ukraine, FIIs selling and rising oil price. FIIs were net sellers over Rs5000cr during the week while Brent Crude spiked over 20% to $120/bbl from the low of $98/bbl. Sensex slipped by 502 points (0.9%) to close at 57362 while Nifty shed 134 points to close at 17153 against the previous week’s close.
Expect markets to be range-bound with caution note this week on account of surging oil price and geopolitical tension on Russia-Ukraine crisis. Moreover, market will keenly watch on RBI after oil marketing companies’ total hike in the past five days to Rs 3.2 per liter while Retail inflation in February crosses 6 per cent mark for second consecutive month to touch an 8-month high. The central board of directors of the RBI on Friday reviewed the impact of the Ukraine conflict on the economy. Among the other factors like FIIs uncertainty surrounding several global developments continue to weigh on investors’ minds. The rising US yields to 2-year high at 2.45% have once again raised concerns that the Fed may go for rate hikes. The risk of the Russia-Ukraine war is diminishing for the moment and the more immediate concern is the impact of more aggressive interest rate hikes, especially on the economy. Among the global events, latest impacts of war in Ukraine, an OPEC+ meeting, U.S. monthly job numbers (Friday), while the European Union and China hold a virtual summit as the war in Ukraine enters its second month.
Nifty is having strong support at 17000, while on the upside 17350 may act as a hurdle for the index, crossing above the same can show upside movement. On the weekly charts, the Nifty has formed a small bearish candle that also indicates further weakness. As long as the index is trading below 17350, consolidation to mild negative move is likely to continue in the near future and below the same the chances of hitting a 200 day SMA or 17000 would turn bright. On extended weakness, the index may fall up to 16900-16870 levels. On the other hand, fresh uptrend is possible only after the level of 17350 is crossed, and above the same, one quick pullback rally till 17450-17500.
L&T Technology Services
Target: Rs 5150 | Stop loss: 4850
LTTS has started the next move after the retest of the breakout level. It has formed a bullish candle on the daily scale which indicates buying interest. There was strength visible across IT space with noticeable volumes. Considering the current chart structure, we advise traders to buy the stock for an up move towards 5150 with a stop loss of 4850
Target: Rs 660 | Stop Loss: Rs 608
Hindalco has retested its previous breakout zones and inched higher. It is forming higher highs- higher lows from past four trading sessions and supports are gradually shifting higher. Buying is visible across Metal space with noticeable volumes and small follow up can take it towards new life time high territories. Considering the current chart structure, we advise traders to buy the stock for an up move towards 660 with a stop loss of 608.
(Rahul Shah is the Senior Vice President, Group Advisory Leader-PCG, Broking & Distribution at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Views expressed are the author’s own, Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)