Abiy Ahmed promised a clean break from years of iron-fisted rule in Ethiopia, where he became prime minister in 2018 after several years of anti-government street protests.

Africa’s second-most populous nation has witnessed rapid and historic change since Abiy’s appointment and in 2019 he won the Nobel Peace Prize.

But war broke out the following year in the northern Tigray region — where famine now looms large — and ethnic violence has increased under his rule. 

Abiy’s ruling party won a landslide victory in national elections in June.

But ahead of his swearing-in Monday, he faces international condemnation and growing isolation over the Tigray conflict.

New hope

Abiy was appointed in April 2018 by Ethiopia’s authoritarian ruling coalition after years of agitation by the country’s two largest ethnic groups — the Oromos and Amharas — forced his predecessor to resign.

Ethiopia’s first ever Oromo prime minister, Abiy sparked early hopes of a democratic resurgence. Dissidents were freed from prison, exiles welcomed home and a formal apology issued for state brutality.

He also announced economic reforms, including liberalising parts of Ethiopia’s tightly controlled markets, the creation of a stock exchange, and opening state industries to foreign investors.

But he was not universally popular. A grenade attack targeted one of his rallies just two months after he took office. 

Peacemaker

In a surprise move, Abiy made peace with neighbouring Eritrea after a 20-year cold war.

Eritrea voted for independence from Ethiopia in 1993. A border dispute then ignited a 1998-2000 war that left 80,000 dead before sliding into a stalemate.

Shortly after taking office, Abiy extended an olive branch by accepting the demarcation of the border as drawn by the UN in 2002. He then paid a historic visit to Eritrea, where both sides declared the war over.

Abiy won his Nobel in large part for instigating the thaw.

State of unrest 

The opening of political space under Abiy spurred ethno-nationalism that had long been kept at bay by the repressive former regime.

The Sidama people in the south voted overwhelmingly in 2019 to create their own region, Ethiopia’s 10th, and another referendum was held in September 2021 on whether to form a South West region. Other groups also challenged Abiy for greater ethnic self-rule, sometimes drawing a forceful response.

Abiy has struggled to keep a lid on ethnic violence, including in his native Oromia.

In June 2020, the shooting of an Oromo pop singer sparked protests that saw 160 people killed in inter-ethnic violence and clashes with security forces. Opposition leaders were rounded up and jailed.

Oromia has also witnessed massacres blamed on local rebel groups. Meanwhile, hundreds of civilians have been killed in ethnically motivated clashes in Amhara, the second-most populous region.

War in the north

In late 2019, Abiy disbanded Ethiopia’s long-ruling coalition and formed the Prosperity Party. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which dominated national politics before Abiy took power, refused to join.

The TPLF complained of being sidelined and openly defied his rule. In September 2020, it held elections in Tigray, ignoring a federal order.

Two months later, Abiy accused the TPLF of orchestrating attacks on federal army camps in Tigray and sent troops into the region, aided by Eritrean forces. 

Although he promised swift victory, TPLF rebels retook the Tigray capital Mekele in June and Abiy’s government declared a unilateral ceasefire.

Fighting has since spread to neighbouring regions.

Ethiopia has faced censure on the world stage over a dire humanitarian crisis in Tigray, and its troops have been accused of mass rape and ethnic cleansing. 

Election woes

Abiy vowed to hold the most credible elections Ethiopia had ever seen to secure a mandate for his reform agenda.

The poll was initially delayed from August 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic and then again until June 21 this year because of logistical setbacks.

The Tigray war, and ethnic unrest elsewhere, made voting impossible in many parts of the country of 115 million people. 

Delayed polls were held in some areas on September 30, but the outcome will not have a significant bearing on the balance of power.