It took writing a long picks column to realize why my record was awful last week. And it was BAD. I’ve been typing things on this website for a while and it’s probably the worst week I’ve had. This isn’t an apology it’s just me expressing my annoyance at waiting for Pete Prisco’s podcast trap he’s been laying since Sunday. 

This week is a great litmus test for the few weeks moving forward. Is football drifting toward the baseball model? Because the past five years or so, elite MLB teams hit this stretch of the season where they win tons of games. The idea being MLB teams give up and get overpowered by elite spenders like the Dodgers, Yankees, etc. The Dodgers traded for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner this year. The Yankees went budget and added Anthony Rizzo. Even the Giants snagged Kris Bryant. 

A lot of bad try-hard teams have massive spreads against elite teams. I’m curious to see if a gulf is gonna build or if we get the usual swing back from the NFL where standings tighten up. There hasn’t been a chaos week yet this season. 

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook

NFL Week 7 Picks

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: Fox, NFL Network | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App

This is a pretty difficult game to handicap before ooooooohhhh about 6:30 p.m. on Thursday. That’s because it will be right around gametime when we know the full extent of who will be available for the Browns and Broncos. Cleveland’s injury report is crazy long and there are some important names on there: Jack Conklin, Jedrick Wills, Odell Beckham and many more. I’m of the belief you probably want to wait and see who is active and who isn’t before betting this game but right now with the number closer to a pick I’m going to go with the Browns. Full disclosure: I took some Broncos +3.5 and will either come back on the Browns at -1 or ML them to try and get a window. This is a weird game. We’ll bet it but won’t love it. Don’t sleep on the possibility of Case Keenum sparking some “should Baker be the starter” conversations over the weekend.

The pick: Browns 17, Broncos 12

Props, Best Bets: Noah Fant over receiving yards

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)

Latest Odds:

Baltimore Ravens
-6.5

The Bengals are legit, I think. Their defense is good, particularly against the run. Joe Burrow is starting to really come out of the post ACL injury thing. Jonah Williams isn’t getting enough credit for playing well at LT. And Ja’Marr Chase is an absolute monster out there. The Bengals played things right in terms of the draft and it’s paying dividends. I’m not sure if I’m 100 percent sold on Zac Taylor as “the guy” yet but Bengals fans shouldn’t be either. John Harbaugh is the guy, though, and Baltimore is cooking. Lamar Jackson is running less than ever this year, Marquise Brown is having a third-year breakout, Rashod Bateman has returned from injury and Mark Andrews looks like a monster out there. I think the Ravens might be flexing on people over the next few weeks.

The pick: Baltimore 31, Bengals 17

Props, Best Bets: Ravens -6

Which picks can you make with confidence, and which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,900 since its inception, and find out.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Tennessee Titans
+4.5

Massive, emotional win for the Titans on Monday night. They move to 4-2, host another AFC contender they have battled with in the past and get to run out Derrick Henry for another 30 carries hoping he can jailbreak a few. The Titans can keep this close if the game goes the way they want it — low-scoring/matching early, feed Henry, take some shots to A.J. Brown/Julio Jones (assuming both are healthy) and beat up on a bad Chiefs defense. But Kansas City was kind of flying around last week. It was Washington, so caveat away. But we’ve passed the buy-low point for the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. They’re plus money to win the division, a bet you should absolutely make. And I kind of think they fire up a comeback tour starting here. Give me some heavy road chalk, what could go wrong. Actually I just think if the weapons are healthy they’ll find ways to score late against bad defenses like they have the last few weeks.

The Pick: Chiefs 31, Titans 21

Bets: Chiefs -6.5

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds:

New England Patriots
-7

Bill Belichick and the Pats are down in the dumps. Will that prevent them from thrashing a bad Jets team twice this season? Nope. The Jets are rested and Robert Salah/Zach Wilson have their second look at the Patriots defense. New England’s D hasn’t been great this year but the offenses its faced have been tough. And Belichick’s record against rookie/young quarterbacks speaks for itself. Lots of Pats field goals and a similar game to the first one.

The Pick: Patriots 24, Jets 10

Bets: Pats -7

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Miami Dolphins
+2.5

This game stinks out loud on a number of levels. The Dolphins are coming back from London without a bye week. The Falcons are coming back from London … off their bye week. The Dolphins are being heavily mentioned as a trade candidate for Deshaun Watson. The chatter appears to be coming from Houston, which means the Texans are trying to force the issue before the trade deadline. And that will apply significant pressure to Tua Tagovailoa against a bad defense. I kind of think he throws up a big game here to push it back against the Dolphins. Tua wasn’t bad in London, he just had an absolutely miserable “maybe I’m out on Tua” interception to the sideline, a toss that showed his lack of arm strength. If the Dolphins can generate pressure up front, they can win this game against a largely unprotected Matt Ryan. I am worried Miami is tired and Ryan/Calvin Ridley/Kyle Pitts lob up bombs but the Falcons shouldn’t be favored on the road. 

The Pick: Dolphins 24, Falcons 21

Bets: Calvin Ridley over yards

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

New York Giants
+3

No idea how to play the Dave Gettleman Bowl. The Giants obviously can’t be favored in any game the rest of the year and are dealing with a ton of injuries. Carolina looked awful last week against a better than average defense. This game could feature 10-15 turnovers from the quarterbacks alone. Both offensive lines are problems. Ultimately it comes down to whether Sam Darnold or Daniel Jones turns the ball over more. Or less? One of them will win the turnover battle and that’s how this game gets decided. The Panthers defense is definitely better — if they get a lead, I’d be worried they can kind of melt clock. But I’ll go points at home here.

The Pick: Giants 21, Panthers 20

Bets: Nope

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Green Bay Packers
-7.5

Hate this game too. Aaron Rodgers just casually blasted the Bears and now he’s at home against a horrific defense, but also has the undefeated Cardinals coming up on Thursday in Week 8. I know NFL teams don’t have “lookahead” spots in theory, but they know the schedule when there’s a game at home and a short turnaround. That’s part of the plan. Everyone is aware. The WFT offense has been really bad the last few weeks — Taylor Heinicke is not the magic solution anyone was expecting on a full-time basis, it doesn’t appear. But the difference between the Chiefs and Packers is Green Bay will get a shorter lead and leave someone in a game (see the Bears last week). Washington can backdoor this big line.

The Pick: Packers 24, WFT 20

Bets: Pass

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-12.5

The Bears wanted to come through the backdoor last week but Aaron Rodgers unfortunately “still owns them.” Chicago was inside the number late and Rodgers bounced into the end zone for his viral moment. Justin Fields hasn’t been inspiring in his starts. The Bears franchise tagged Allen Robinson and aren’t using him. The offense is stale and the offensive line is bad. The Bucs front seven could EAT against this offense. They probably will. If this line was less than 10 I’m probably rolling Bears, but 12+ points is just too much for an NFL team with a top-10 defense. It’s just going to be close like last week and the question is can Fields actually produce against a bad pass defense. We saw the Eagles sneak in the backdoor on Thursday last week, Chicago can do the same even if Tampa wins comfortably.

The Pick: Buccaneers 28, Bears 17

Bets: Look at Godwin overs if AB is hurt, RoJo over rush attempts 

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Los Angeles Rams
-16

Game of the week of the year — a quadruple revenge game. We have Matthew Stafford going against his old team, Jared Goff going against his old team, Goff and Sean McVay looking for revenge against each other for how things went down/trying to prove the coach is happier with the new quarterback and Michael Brockers of the Rams talking smack about Goff versus Goff’s new teammate Michael Brockers. I know the second I get off the Dan Campbell bandwagon they’ll find a way to cover on my face but I think there’s a bigger impetus on McVay and Stafford to light up the Lions here than vice versa. This isn’t the Bucs game for McVay but it might be close. He wants to beat the living snot out of Goff and remind everyone why he made this massive offseason trade. Stafford is gonna have a big game here. The Lions will fight their asses off here, but I don’t think the Rams will let up. 

The Pick: Rams 35, Lions 21

Bets: Stafford over pass yards, Kupp over receptions, DJax anytime TD, D’Andre Swift over receptions

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Las Vegas Raiders
-3

It’s borderline impossible to imagine the psychological state of the Raiders right now. Of all my bad picks last week nothing stings worse than fading the Raiders because of the Jon Gruden firing, reading Vic Fangio saying the Broncos were scared they’d be fired up and then not changing my pick. Terrible. But this works both ways — there’s a natural emotional letdown after that kind of performance. Derek Carr is playing GREAT right now and will probably make me look stupid. These teams are really close and the spread reflects it — if Carr keeps hitting ceiling games they’ll stay in the playoff race. But Hurts isn’t scared to backdoor something and the Eagles are a problem up front if you don’t protect well. I see a let down here. 

The Pick: Eagles 24, Raiders 21

Bets: Eagles +3.5

Texans at Cardinals

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Arizona Cardinals
-17.5

Every year these enormous spreads are the worst. We’re talking a team that is an underdog by three scores to Kliff Kingsbury. And I have to take them out of principle. It’s very annoying. The Texans are god awful, are missing Laremy Tunsil for a hot minute (a big problem) and Arizona is great. J.J. Watt has juiced this team with an energy they didn’t have before and is also playing fantastic football. But this number is an overreaction to the Texans getting smoked by the Colts and the Cards putting the Browns in a blender. Arizona is good but three-score spreads are reserved for epic offenses versus horrific teams. The Texans match. And this Cards team is one of the few top-10 offensive and defensive teams in the league. But 17-plus points is outrageous. The Texans could legit score 10 points in this game and still cover. Arizona isn’t playing a statement game here. They’ll shift to run heavy and melt if they get up big early.

The Pick: Cardinals 24, Texans 7

Bets: Brandin Cooks overs, James Conner carry overs

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

San Francisco 49ers
-4

Beware the DeForest Buckner revenge game. The 49ers have been a disappointment this season, although I would argue the losses aren’t as bad as you remember. Every single one of the 49ers games has been one score this season, which is wild. Some of them were huge shootouts (Week 1, *the Lions game* aka the insane backdoor) and some of them have been weird clunkers (they held the Cards to 17 before the bye). Carson Wentz has played very well the last few weeks. Quenton Nelson and Darius Leonard are both coming back for this game if you believe the flirty Colts tweets. “Must win” is a dumb phrase always but it’s getting late early for the 49ers given how the division is moving. 

The Pick: 49ers 31, Colts 24

Bets: Deebo Samuel over receptions

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Seattle Seahawks
+4.5

Geno Smith and Jameis Winston are squaring off in the battle of quarterbacks we never knew we wanted and, yet, we needed. The Seahawks need to win this one. Really badly. To decide if they’re going to sell or not at the trade deadline and maybe launch a run of sorts after Russell Wilson gets back. Anyone else and I’d bank on a longer recovery, but Mr. Unlimited doesn’t adhere to schedules. Geno wasn’t great against the Steelers but they’re finding spots to get him comfortable. The Saints defense is sneaky elite but they’re probably a fair comp for Pittsburgh. And this is a season-flipping win for Seattle if they find a way.   

The Pick: Seahawks 17, Saints 14

Bets: Pass