After starting the season ranked No. 4 within the AP Top 25, Kentucky didn’t obtain a single vote on this week’s ballot amid a 1-3 begin to SEC play marked by an embarrassing 78-52 loss at Alabama on Saturday which was adopted by a 71-68 loss to South Carolina on Tuesday that snapped a 28-game successful streak at Rupp Arena for the Wildcats. At No. 46 within the NET with an 0-4 report in Quad 1 video games, the Wildcats are a profound disappointment after returning nationwide participant of the 12 months Oscar Tshiebwe together with different key gamers akin to Sahvir Wheeler and Jacob Toppin from a 26-8 workforce. 

On the heels of a shocking upset loss to No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s within the first spherical of final 12 months’s NCAA Tournament, frustration with 14th-year coach John Calipari is at an all-time excessive throughout the UK fanbase. The program’s final win within the Big Dance got here in 2019, and it abruptly seems as if there aren’t any ensures that 2023 will carry one.

But two months stay till Selection Sunday and Kentucky nonetheless has time to show issues round. Five-star freshmen Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston have every proven encouraging flashes and may solely enhance because the season progresses. Sharpshooting guard CJ Fredrick must also return from a finger harm in some unspecified time in the future throughout league play.

The vary of outcomes for the Wildcats stays huge, and the saga of Calipari’s tenure reaching a essential juncture figures to seize the game’s collective consideration for weeks to come back. For this week’s version of the Dribble Handoff, our writers are providing their projections for the way the remainder of Kentucky’s season will play out.

Cats a bubble workforce, however makes Big Dance

• Predicted convention report: 10-8
• Predicted NCAA Tournament seed: No. 9

Kentucky has been unimpressive all season and does not appear on the verge of turning issues round. The Wildcats simply acquired blasted at Alabama by 26 factors. They’re 3-3 of their previous six video games, nonetheless in possession of zero Quadrant 1 wins and all the way down to forty fifth within the NET, 56th at BartTorvik.com and 62nd at KPI.

UK appears to be like like a potential bubble workforce.

At this level, I’m skeptical the Wildcats will ever dwell as much as the preseason expectations that had them ranked No. 1 at KenPom.com, within the high 5 mainly all over the place and labeled as SEC favorites — however I nonetheless assume they will land on the appropriate aspect of the bubble and make the NCAA Tournament. And then … who is aware of? A 12 months in the past, UK had an incredible common season adopted by a horrible NCAA Tournament. This 12 months might conceivably be the alternative — a disappointing common season adopted by a pleasant NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats nonetheless have the reigning CBS Sports National Player of the Year (Oscar Tshiebwe) and a projected lottery decide (Cason Wallace). It’s not probably the most gifted roster John Calipari has ever assembled, but it surely’s nonetheless a extra gifted roster than most coaches have. Now it is only a matter of figuring some issues out, doing sufficient to make the sector of 68, after which seeing if issues can break the appropriate method when that single-elimination event will get underway. — Gary Parrish

UK’s season stays bumpy however massive wins will come

• Predicted convention report: 11-7
• Predicted NCAA Tournament seed: No. 9

Though UK sits at 1-2 within the SEC — I count on it to be 2-2 after beating South Carolina at dwelling on Tuesday evening — that convention goes to be too powerful to moderately count on the Wildcats to drag off something better than a four-game successful streak between now and the postseason. There are seven highway assessments, plus a house recreation on Jan. 28 towards No. 2 Kansas within the ultimate version of the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. So, the losses will stack periodically. However, I count on Kentucky to seek out some resolve and stiffen its protection. 

I count on it to notch just a few essential Quad 1 victories and guarantee it’s going to dodge bubble discuss by the second week of March. This goes to wind up being just like the workforce in 2014 that was within the 8/9 recreation. Because with 5 losses already and possibly no less than one other 5 coming between now and Selection Sunday, it is optimistic to say Kentucky will earn a single-digit seed. I’ll say it does narrowly, although, because of a superb displaying within the SEC Tournament. And: Kentucky’s going to beat Kansas later this month. — Matt Norlander

Wildcats hit stride by February

• Predicted convention report: 13-5
• Predicted NCAA Tournament seed: No. 6

There is little doubt that Kentucky has underperformed relative to preseason expectations and even relative to relaxed in-season expectations after struggling early prompted a tough reset. A ten-5 begin to the season is flat underachieving at Kentucky even for those who’ve acquired critical issues. There’s causes for cautious optimism, although. This is quietly among the finest 3-point capturing groups Calipari has fielded at UK, and Oscar Tshiebwe, for all his struggles, has continued to be nails pounding the offensive glass and producing second-chance alternatives. 

Some minor tweaks for participant roles and an elevated deal with doing what it does properly — launching 3-pointers, feeding Cason Wallace alternatives to set the desk and getting Tshiebwe into favorable spots — could possibly be sufficient to show issues round. There’s nonetheless some stuff on the margins that want vital enchancment — this workforce is terrible at capturing free throws and it persistently runs into late-clock hero ball on offense — however I’ve seen sufficient positives to assume it may be a No. 6 or No. 7 seed within the NCAA Tournament and work its method again into being a top-15 degree workforce by the tip of the common season..  — Kyle Boone

UK in First Four, one among final groups in Big Dance

• Predicted convention report: 9-9
• Predicted NCAA Tournament seed: No. 12 (First Four) 

Kentucky performs an antiquated offensive model that’s outlined by a methodical tempo and restricted ground spacing. Without an elite protection that may persistently create transition alternatives, UK is getting slowed down in half-court units and struggling to discover a rhythm or construct momentum. Schematically talking, Calipari simply does not have it in him at this level in his profession to drag the strings essential to unlock the potential of this roster.

The SEC’s backside feeders will be sure that the Wildcats decide up a good variety of league victories. But UK doesn’t get a regular-season rematch with No. 4 Alabama, which places a heavy emphasis on two video games towards No. 5 Tennessee and two video games towards No. 15 Arkansas. Outside of these contests, a single recreation with No. 21 Auburn and a Big 12/SEC Challenge recreation with No. 2 Kansas symbolize Kentucky’s solely possibilities so as to add substance to its resume.

It’s exhausting to see the Wildcats doing any higher than possibly 2-4 or 3-3 towards Arkansas (two video games), Tennessee (two video games), Auburn and Kansas. Kentucky appears to be like destined for the NCAA Tournament bubble, and I’ll take a swing on the Wildcats touchdown a spot within the First Four as different blue bloods akin to Indiana, Michigan State and UCLA have in recent times. — David Cobb