Over a million Indians have now been infected by SARS-Cov-2. Over 25,000 of them have died. India is the third most-affected country in the world by caseload. And Covid-19 is only spreading, hitting a record number of cases almost on a daily basis. New regions are getting affected. Its impact may be different vis-a-vis different groups, but it has affected the old and young, men and women, the rich and the poor. And, notwithstanding the end of the lockdown, it has continued to affect everyday life, economic activity, income levels, social interactions, education, travel and mobility.

India’s experience offers key lessons in how to manage the pandemic. The first lesson is that in the absence of a vaccine, there is no alternative to aggressive testing. India’s testing rate is 9,323 tests per million people, much lower than other affected countries. There is a simple, obvious logic here, recognised by the government too. Testing is the only way to identify those who may have Covid-19, isolate and treat them, and ensure that they don’t become carriers. But by instituting restrictive testing protocols and not using the available testing capacity, India has been slow to do this. It should be clear after a million cases that not testing will not make the problem disappear. The second lesson is recognising that India is at a community transmission stage. This means that old protocols of limited contact tracing will not be enough in finding the infected; it also means that, through chains and processes that cannot necessarily be traced, the infection has spread far and wide, possibly in rural areas. This, then, requires a far greater investment in district health infrastructure and personnel, medical equipment, especially in states with a weak public health care system.

The third lesson is that as the virus continues to make its way through other parts and other demographic segments, better economic management is essential. The lockdown devastated an already fragile economy, and caused suffering. There may be some bright spots, but the government’s economic package did not go far enough in providing the stimulus needed to rev up the growth engine, and its welfare schemes may not be adequate in addressing the humanitarian distress. As India heads towards both more cases (a million more in less than a month is now a real likelihood) and its most severe economic contraction in history, it is essential to get the lives and livelihoods balance right.