Last month, India efficiently landed its Chandrayaan-3 spacecraft on the moon. This weekend, at a futuristic convention center in New Delhi that appears like a flying saucer, one other landmark touchdown was achieved. The Group of Twenty (G20) permitted an eighty-three-paragraph leaders’ declaration, protecting points starting from plastic air pollution to terrorism. While consensus among the many world’s wealthiest international locations is at all times troublesome—and the absence of Chinese chief Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladmir Putin lowered expectations additional—Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi guided house the declaration, which welcomed the African Union as a brand new member to the group, amongst different essential factors.

Below, Atlantic Council specialists discover the communiqué and different milestones from the G20 Summit, together with the brand new diplomatic frontiers that lie forward.

Click to leap to an skilled evaluation:

Kapil Sharma: India forges a new model of inclusive diplomacy

Michael Schuman: Modi cemented his leadership of the Global South, while Xi ‘contained’ himself

Rama Yade: As it joins the G20, the African Union could accelerate its own reforms

Josh Lipsky: Don’t expect Xi to snub the G20 again next year

Hung Tran: Modi delivers useful, if not spectacular, results

Nicole Goldin: The G20 communiqué was ambitious, but had a few major holes

Joseph Webster: Coal is the greater climate problem, but hydrogen takes center stage

India forges a brand new mannequin of inclusive diplomacy

In the lead-up to the 2023 G20 Summit, there was a lot concentrate on Putin and Xi selecting to not attend the assembly. Observers believed that their absence was a direct affront to India and would finally overshadow India’s presidency and its G20 aims. But because the summit got here to an finish, it was clear that India’s aims weren’t derailed, and three key themes emerged: consensus, inclusiveness, options.  

Consensus: Russia’s warfare in Ukraine loomed all through India’s presidency and had divided G20 international locations. It was unclear if and the way the battle could be addressed and whether or not it could stop the settlement of a last G20 communiqué. However, after three hundred bilateral meetings, 2 hundred hours of negotiations, and fifteen drafts, Modi and his crew have been capable of convey consensus on the Russia-Ukraine paragraphs within the last G20 communiqué.    

Inclusiveness: As a part of India’s positioning to be the voice of the Global South, India shepherded the African Union’s inclusion as a everlasting member of the G20. India additionally pushed for, and international locations agreed to, main reforms at world establishments such because the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.  

Solutions: India efficiently promoted its Digital Public Infrastructure plan as an exportable tech answer for monetary inclusion. While it’s unclear whether or not different international locations are able to replicating India’s digital plan, it has discovered a distinct segment that goes above and past easy capital financing.      

With greater than 2 hundred conferences in over sixty Indian cities, Indian officers have been intent to make their presidency about representing marginalized voices and the Global South. While India was upset to not have Putin and Xi current, this G20 Summit was not about how diplomacy has been executed, however reasonably how diplomacy might be executed. In the top, India’s diplomacy demonstrated its skill to tackle present geopolitical disagreements and symbolize these international locations who’ve felt marginalized for many years.   

—Kapil Sharma is the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center.

Modi cemented his management of the Global South, whereas Xi ‘contained’ himself

This yr’s G20 summit will probably be remembered not for who was there and what they did, however for who wasn’t: The absence of Xi was the large story and can forged the longest shadow over world affairs. Xi’s determination to not attend was seemingly an try and discredit the G20 as a discussion board for worldwide cooperation and represents his intensifying opposition to the established world order and resistance to multilateral cooperation. Setting Xi’s G20 snub subsequent to his look on the August summit of the BRICS financial grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, and the planning of the third Belt and Road Forum in October, means that he intends to advertise different and competing organizations that he can extra simply manipulate or management to serve China’s world pursuits.

This G20 additionally represents an acceleration within the contest between China and different main powers for affect within the Global South. Modi proved that he’s changing into a extra essential determine within the Global South and a counterweight to Xi throughout the creating world. While Xi apparently plans to rally the creating world in help of China’s anti-American agenda, Modi is providing another imaginative and prescient of North-South relations that’s centered on enhancing the voice of creating international locations in world governance whereas on the identical time cooperating—reasonably than confronting—the West. Modi’s advocacy of G20 membership for the African Union was a smart geopolitical maneuver that makes the discussion board much more inclusive.

In that method, Xi turned out to be the most important loser of the summit. By vacating the scene, he allowed Modi and Biden to advertise their very own views and affect. Rather than Xi’s snub spoiling the summit, the G20 went on with out him. Chinese leaders appear to concern being “contained” by the United States and its companions; along with his withdrawal, Xi is doing a fairly good job of containing himself.

The summit, due to this fact, highlighted China’s rising isolation from a lot of the world’s main powers. In that method, it is also a worrisome signal that worldwide cooperation on key points akin to local weather change may change into much more difficult.

 —Michael Schuman is a nonresident senior fellow on the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub and a contributing author for the Atlantic journal.

As it joins the G20, the African Union may speed up its personal reforms

The first determination of the G20 Summit held in New Delhi underneath the chairmanship of Modi was to confess the African Union (AU) as a member of the group. For India, it’s a success: The nation has proved its skill to advertise the so-called Global South on the highest degree. After nearly a decade of advocacy, the AU, with its 1.4 billion folks and three-trillion-dollar gross home product, will probably be seated on the identical desk as one other regional group, the European Union, and the world’s richest international locations. 

According to the G20 communiqué launched by India: “We welcome the African Union as a permanent member of the G20 and strongly believe that inclusion of the African Union into the G20 will significantly contribute to addressing the global challenges of our time.”

Bola Tinubu, Cyril Ramaphosa, and William Ruto—the presidents of the main African economies, Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya—in addition to the present chairman of the African Union (Comoros President Azali Assoumani), have been current for this historic second. “Congratulations to all of Africa!” said Senegalese President Macky Sall, who chaired the African Union in 2022 and has by no means stopped being a vibrant advocate of AU integration with different multilateral establishments.

Until now, solely South Africa, a everlasting member of the membership, may symbolize the continent, and the African Union was solely invited as a visitor. Africa’s entry into the G20 is a real success, coming a number of days after the enlargement of the BRICS group. Given their robust presence in each the BRICS and the G20, Africans are embracing their tradition of geopolitical neutrality that they’ve been advocating for in recent times, whereas additionally reaching a central place in multilateral discussions.

As a full member, the African Union will weigh in on G20 commitments and prioritize its major pursuits, akin to debt restructuring, the reform of the worldwide monetary structure, and local weather funding—so long as African international locations, like European international locations, overcome their divisions. It might take a stronger AU Commission to harmonize African international locations’ varied positions. AU Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki ought to be capable of be a reputable interlocutor for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

The necessity to convey a extra unified African voice in these worldwide gatherings may speed up African integration and stronger reforms of the African Union because the group celebrates its twentieth birthday. The AU continues to be too depending on international help, which makes up 65 p.c of its price range. How can it occupy the G20 seat and make its personal decisions with out budgetary sovereignty? The G20 is simply a step, as Africans know that solely a seat on the United Nations Security Council will place their continent to wield true political sovereignty. The cost is historic for African Union leaders. But something much less would do a disservice to a continent that, by 2050, can have 2.5 billion residents rising on the world stage. 

 —Rama Yade is senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center and senior fellow for the Europe Center.

Don’t anticipate Xi to snub the G20 once more subsequent yr

The G20 proved its relevance and resilience this weekend. From World Bank reform to including the African Union as a member to local weather commitments, the group made progress on the problems it laid out over one yr in the past. US President Joe Biden stepped into the void left by Xi and secured new infrastructure offers geared toward connecting India, the Middle East, and Europe. The United States was even awarded the 2026 G20 presidency, reportedly over China’s objections. 

But to be actually profitable long-term, the query of what China desires from the G20 should be answered. In the wake of Xi’s determination to skip India’s G20 Summit (the primary ever no-show from a Chinese chief), there’s hypothesis about what China’s engagement will probably be like for Brazil’s G20 presidency yr—which formally begins Monday. 

But it’s truly unlikely Xi will skip subsequent yr’s leaders summit. Why? Look on the numbers:

No one is aware of fairly why Xi didn’t present in India. It may very well be the should be seen specializing in home issues, or China-India rivalry, or a broader sign about how China desires multilateralism to work after BRICS growth. But one factor is obvious: Xi didn’t suppose there was a value to pay for lacking the assembly.

Next yr, when Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva convenes world leaders, Xi might not be capable of make the identical calculation.

—Josh Lipsky is the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center.

This response is tailored from the GeoEconomics Center’s weekly Guide to the Global Economy e-newsletter. If you have an interest in getting the e-newsletter, e-mail SBusch@atlanticcouncil.org.

Modi delivers helpful, if not spectacular, outcomes

The 2023 G20 Summit, with out Xi and Putin, has delivered virtually every thing Modi had needed, with many compromises. Those embrace a consensus declaration (by not mentioning Russia within the part in regards to the warfare in Ukraine), the admission of the African Union as a everlasting member (a very good step ahead), continued efforts to take care of local weather change (however no onerous commitments in phasing out fossil fuels), help for local weather financing to help creating international locations (however no onerous targets besides extending the 2010 pledges by developed international locations to switch $100 billion a yr to creating international locations to 2025). 

The G20 additionally took on reforms to the multilateral growth banks (MDB) to incorporate local weather financing of their core missions (no capital will increase now however optimizing the MDB stability sheets to allow them to lend $200 billion extra over the following decade) and help for the development of the Common Framework for Debt Treatment to facilitate the restructuring of low-income international locations’ debt. But the Common Framework stays imprecise with no roadmap specifying a sequence and timeline of steps to be taken as soon as a debtor nation asks for a restructuring. In addition, the group adopted a number of concrete and doubtlessly useful initiatives akin to mapping the worldwide worth chain to assist international locations establish dangers, the digitalization of commerce paperwork to expedite commerce transactions, and the event of public digital infrastructures to advertise monetary inclusion and productiveness. Also notable is the launch of an India-Middle East-Europe financial hall related by railways and ports—in direct competitors with China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Overall, the outcomes of the G20 Summit will bolster India’s declare to be the voice of the Global South—with the ability to articulate the calls for of creating international locations and to interact in negotiations with developed international locations to provide helpful, if not spectacular, outcomes. This is an effective template for Brazil to take up the G20 presidency in 2024 and South Africa in 2025.

—Hung Tran is a nonresident senior fellow on the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center, a former govt managing director on the Institute of International Finance, and a former deputy director on the International Monetary Fund.

The G20 communiqué was bold, however had a number of main holes

With expectations excessive, the G20 delivered a complete communiqué with wide-ranging, bold commitments from digital infrastructure to debt remedies, local weather finance to cultural preservation. The end result is so broad that what isn’t included may very well be seen as extra notable than what’s—although sure detailed parts akin to care infrastructure for girls’s financial empowerment and the creation of a global reference classification of abilities and {qualifications} didn’t go unseen. 

For instance, regardless of a concentrate on poverty discount, inclusive development, and jobs, the communiqué has no point out of casual work, which accounts for a major share of employment in lower- and middle-income international locations—particularly amongst girls, migrants, and marginalized populations. Similarly, the communiqué devotes ample consideration towards lowering inequality usually and bettering the financial and social wellbeing of girls and ladies, however is devoid of concrete dialogue of generational demographic dynamics of older individuals and youth who account for almost all of populations. This omission comes even because the G20 is increasing to incorporate the African Union, representing the youngest continent the place greater than 60 p.c of the inhabitants is underneath the age of twenty-five. By 2035 there will probably be extra younger Africans getting into the workforce yearly than in the remainder of the world mixed. 

The addition of the African Union is nonetheless important, bringing extra voice from and relevance to the Global South, particularly because the BRICS grouping expands in an effort to counter ‘Western’ financial dominance and produce extra stability to the worldwide order. Achieving—and even getting nearer to—the United Nations sustainable growth targets, inclusive prosperity, and peace would require inclusive governance in any respect ranges, and India’s G20 took many welcome if not high-level steps on this course. Whether we see actual motion to achieve the vacation spot stays to be seen because the baton passes to Brazil.

—Nicole Goldin is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center and world head, inclusive financial development at Abt Associates.

Coal is the better local weather drawback, however hydrogen takes heart stage

Coal is a far dirtier and emissions-intensive gas than oil or pure gasoline and accounted for about 44 percent of world emissions from gas combustion in 2021. One may due to this fact anticipate that the official communiqué from the G20 convening would focus on coal at size. One could be fallacious.

Coal stays too politically delicate for the G20 to come back to a consensus. While coal burn is broadly acknowledged as a significant contributor to local weather change, in addition to a reason behind sure cancers and bronchial asthma, it’s also low cost, dependable, and out there. Consequently, many international locations regard coal as a vital evil for his or her vitality combine. 

The G20 assertion’s solely point out of coal states that it “recognizes the importance . . . [of] accelerating efforts towards phasedown of unabated coal power, in line with national circumstances and recognizing the need for support towards just transitions.” 

The G20’s name for a “phasedown” of coal—versus a extra aggressive “phase out”—is notable and a continuation of earlier climate statements, together with on the twenty-sixth United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) summit in 2021. 

Hydrogen earned a whole part within the G20 statement, however its prominence within the communiqué outstrips its significance in preventing local weather change. Let’s be clear: Hydrogen is an important decarbonization know-how with many viable use cases, together with for the refining sector, fertilizers, steelmaking, delivery, inter-seasonal electrical energy storage, and extra. World leaders should be speaking about hydrogen and different decarbonization pathways. Yet hydrogen additionally has several limitations, whereas scarce decarbonization assets are sometimes higher deployed in eradicating coal and greening the electrical energy grid. That is particularly true for China, which accounts for more than half of world coal consumption. 

While vitality entry is undeniably vital for combatting vitality and financial poverty, future generations won’t be happy with the G20’s failure to deal with coal extra systematically.

—Joseph Webster is a senior fellow on the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center, the place he leads the middle’s efforts on Chinese vitality safety, offshore wind, and hydrogen.

Further studying

Related Experts:
Kapil Sharma,
Michael Schuman,
Rama Yade,
Josh Lipsky,
Hung Tran,
Nicole Goldin, and
Joseph Webster

Image: Prime Minister Narendra Modi with US President Joe Biden and G20 leaders at Rajghat to pay homage to Mahatma Gandhi, in New Delhi on September 10.