Author: Biswajit Dhar, Council for Social Development

The unpredictable nature of India’s agricultural sector highlights how shortly a rustic producing exportable surpluses can flip into one grappling with potential provide shortages within the home market. These provide shortages elevate the prospect of meals insecurity and meals value inflation. In response, the federal government instantly clamped down on exports, starting with staples like wheat and rice.

In April 2023, India celebrated a record-breaking agricultural export efficiency, which had surpassed US$42 billion within the previous 12 months. This degree of exports exceeded the pre-pandemic file achieved in 2018–2019 by virtually 48 per cent. Rice exports had elevated by over 15 per cent and pulses by over 84 per cent, whereas sugar exports had been greater than 25 per cent above the earlier 12 months’s degree. Such optimistic indicators had been seen as a significant step in the direction of the implementation of the 2018 National Agriculture Export Policy.

The bullish expectations on agricultural exports have all however disappeared within the first six months of the 2023–24 monetary 12 months. Except for basmati rice, all different main agricultural commodities, together with non-basmati rice, pulses and sugar, registered unfavourable export development. Interestingly, this development had set in even earlier than the federal government banned rice exports in July 2023.

In August 2023, the federal government additional restricted rice exports by imposing a 20 per cent export tax on parboiled rice. With total provides of main meals grains tightening, particularly after a decline within the nation’s wheat manufacturing throughout the 2022–2023 crop season, the federal government went into overdrive to control cereal prices, which registered a year-on-year price increase of over 8 per cent.

High home costs for different agricultural commodities additionally influenced the federal government’s determination to clamp down on exports. Onion costs elevated by 31 per cent in August 2023 and by over 55 per cent in September. In response, the federal government imposed a 40 per cent export tax in August and set a minimal export value of US$800 per metric ton, efficient till the top of 2023.

Similarly, sugar exports had been restricted, permitting sugar mills to export solely 6.2 million metric tons of sugar within the season ending on 30 September 2023. The quota, initially imposed till 31 October 2023, has since been prolonged indefinitely. In distinction, regardless of a 17 per cent improve within the value of pulses within the month of September, the federal government didn’t impose any export restrictions to ease home provide shortages. Instead, it authorised the export of over 2 million tons of important varieties like lentils and pigeon peas to stabilise the marketplace for these commodities.

India’s efforts to curb the export of main agricultural commodities resulted in sharp will increase in worldwide costs of the focused commodities. With the most important rice exporter withdrawing provides from the worldwide market, rice costs in international markets elevated by almost 25 per cent between June and September 2023, whereas sugar costs shot as much as their highest degree ever. India’s main export markets, particularly these in its neighbourhood, are concerned about the runaway prices that would consequence from export restrictions.

Several superior international locations have been vital of the sequence of sudden choices that India has taken to curb exports. In a September 2023 assembly of the World Trade Organization Committee on Agriculture, a gaggle of 9 international locations led by the United States identified that India’s export ban had adversely affected international locations closely reliant on imports. The affected international locations, of their view, can be liable to meals shortages in such economically unsure instances.

The United States claimed that India’s export ban on non-basmati rice was an ‘unnecessary trade barrier’ and demanded its rapid withdrawal. The United States based mostly its criticism on info offered by the US Department of Agriculture, which estimated that India was prone to have a file rice manufacturing of 134 million tons in 2023–2024. But the US Department of Agriculture’s Rice Outlook later reported that rice manufacturing in India was projected to fall by 4 million tons in 2023–2024.

The Indian authorities’s response to provide shortages in key agricultural commodities was clearly aimed toward countering will increase within the costs of those commodities. With the following basic election scheduled for May 2024, the federal government can’t afford meals value inflation. Several giant states are additionally scheduled to go to the polls to elect new governments, heightening the political stakes. Political issues additionally discourage the federal government from counting on imports to reinforce home provides, as questions would come up about why a self-sufficient India depends on imports.

While the Indian authorities has its justifications for imposing export restrictions, it’s vitally necessary to discover measures that would assist prevent global food shortages. India wants to make sure that volatility in its agricultural manufacturing is addressed in an efficient method.

Indian agriculture suffers from a variety of disadvantages, not least crippling underinvestment. There is a have to revive the deserted thought of making regional meals banks that would reply to the wants of web food-importing international locations throughout manufacturing shortages.

Biswajit Dhar is Distinguished Professor on the Council for Social Development