In the 2014 normal election, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) notched a historic victory, turning into the primary occasion to win an outright majority in India’s decrease home of Parliament (Lok Sabha) since 1984 and solely the second occasion ever to realize that distinction, after the Indian National Congress (INC, also referred to as the Congress Party). In 2019, the BJP repeated this feat, ushering in pronouncements that India was witnessing the daybreak of a “fourth party system,” this time with the BJP firmly on the helm. As Indians flip their gaze towards subsequent spring’s 2024 polls, there’s an ongoing debate about what drives the BJP’s success and what, if something, these elements say in regards to the political panorama within the coming normal election.

Scholarly responses to such questions have, traditionally, made little point out of political ideology. Rather, the dominant political science discourse has lengthy characterised India as a “patronage democracy” by which political habits is greatest understood by means of the lenses of clientelism and identity-based parochialism. According to these accounts, politicians and their supporters primarily interact in a quid professional quo change of votes for anticipated materials advantages; coverage is considered as necessary solely insofar because it alters the perceived chance that a person—or their group—will obtain extra authorities sources.

The lack of consideration to political ideology contrasts strongly, nevertheless, with the current ubiquity of ideological debates in Indian politics. For occasion, the BJP has emphasised and sought to ascertain possession over cultural points, contrasting its Hindu nationalist positions with the so-called secular opposition’s insurance policies. The BJP’s 2014 election marketing campaign was outlined by the concept of radical change. It promised potential voters an environment friendly, corruption-free authorities that will ship on bold growth initiatives, generate employment alternatives, strengthen India’s place on the earth by means of a extra aggressive strategy to nationwide safety and international coverage, and—importantly—pave the way in which for India’s “true Hindu identity” to flourish. Since its ascent to energy, the BJP has additional demonstrated that its ideological priorities are extra than simply hole discuss. Especially within the post-2019 period, the BJP has enacted a number of insurance policies in service of its Hindu nationalist agenda, together with the nullification of Article 370 governing the standing of Jammu and Kashmir, the passage of the Citizenship Amendment Act, and the introduction of a number of statutes against religious conversions (popularly termed “love jihad” legal guidelines) in states the occasion governs.

The BJP’s habits in energy suggests that students have too rapidly dismissed the function of ideology in Indian politics and that, quite the opposite, the cautious examine of political ideology can inform understandings of the political panorama in India right this moment. Inspired by current work that has pushed back in opposition to conventional narratives and argued that ideology matters extra throughout a wider range of contexts than has beforehand been acknowledged, this text describes a current examine scrutinizing the function of political ideology in India right this moment.

Measuring Political Ideology in India

To take a look at the salience of ideology in up to date Indian politics, this examine adopted a three-pronged strategy, consisting of a complete on-line examine carried out in 2022, a telephone survey with a consultant pattern of respondents in 2023, and an evaluation of consultant National Election Studies knowledge (collected in particular person by the Lokniti Programme of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies) from three time limits (2009, 2014, and 2019). This article describes outcomes from the web examine, that are broadly in line with findings drawn from the opposite two samples. Our pattern of two,393 Indian respondents was recruited from market analysis firm Cint’s on-line panel and was drawn to be consultant of the nation on age and gender. To guarantee variety in geography, demographics, and state-level political configurations, we collected knowledge on residents in twelve of India’s largest cities, ranging throughout all main areas of the nation. Data have been collected from August to September of 2022.

To examine ideology in India, the primary job is to establish the important thing challenge areas that divide residents. Divides in Indian society happen alongside totally different fault traces than these in high-income, Western international locations. Studies of industrialized democracies have largely conceptualized ideology alongside a unidimensional scale starting from left/liberal (favoring social change and the redistribution of wealth) to proper/conservative (favoring social stability and the free market). This paradigmatic understanding of political ideology has lent itself to a comparatively easy measurement of political ideology in lots of Western democracies, whereby people are requested to position themselves on a scale starting from very left/liberal to very proper/conservative.

However, the Indian context would seemingly render such a conceptualization ineffective. The left-right scale discovered in lots of long-standing democracies doesn’t have a ready-made analogue within the Indian context and, therefore, many Indian survey respondents would possibly discover it troublesome to position themselves alongside a standard left-right spectrum. On the opposite, a distinct set of points has come to outline the ideological area in India. There are quite a few explanations for these variations; notably, political scientists Pradeep Okay. Chhibber and Rahul Verma reason that the set of points characterizing the creation of the fashionable Indian nation-state differ from these in Western Europe (the place class-based divisions have been dominant). Salient matters might differ in international locations like India which are numerous, multiethnic polities. Drawing on this foundational work and newer political developments, our examine identifies three foremost challenge areas round which up to date Indian political ideology revolves:

1. the function of the state in driving financial and social coverage
2. the function of the state in addressing historic inequalities
3. Hindu nationalism

While the primary two challenge areas have been derived largely from the work of Chhibber and Verma, the third was sourced from the authors’ understanding of Indian politics right this moment as being largely pushed by the BJP, which has firmly staked out its place on the function of faith in society. Finally, to analyze the instinct that ideology in India is just not pushed by the identical kinds of points as in Western contexts, the survey probed points which are unlikely to characterize the ideological area in India however which are often utilized in research of political ideology in international locations just like the United States, specifically, questions on abortion and navy spending.

For every challenge, the survey requested respondents the extent to which they agreed or disagreed with an opinion assertion related to that challenge. For instance, on the difficulty of the state’s function in poverty alleviation—a long-standing debate in Indian politics since independence—the survey introduced respondents with the next assertion, drawing from historic election polls: “The government should have special schemes to uplift the poor and disadvantaged.” Similarly, relating to the state’s function in addressing historic inequalities throughout caste teams, the survey elicited reactions to the next assertion: “There should be reservations for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes in schools and universities.”

Taking the mixture set of responses to a number of such challenge statements, the researchers employed ideal point estimation to think about whether or not people’ challenge preferences could possibly be defined by an underlying, latent construction, or “ideology,” and, in that case, round which points ideology was organized and the way a lot explanatory energy it possessed. As a part of this train, the examine estimated every particular person’s relative location, or “ideal point,” on this ideological area. This permits for an examination of how people’ ideologies correlate with their views and behaviors.

Political Ideology Matters in India

The findings strongly point out that political ideology does, certainly, matter in India. First, a single ideological dimension can clarify a considerable proportion of the variation in people’ views on points regarding Hindu nationalism, state intervention, and minority rights. Second, people’ estimated ideologies alongside this single dimension are predictive of their acknowledged partisan affiliations and reported political behaviors in ways in which map onto public understandings.

To show the shut affiliation between ideology and partisanship within the knowledge, determine 1 shows common ideally suited level estimates primarily based on people’ acknowledged partisan affiliations (elicited earlier within the survey). Individuals who recognized with events which are usually understood to be right-wing, notably the BJP and Shiv Sena, have, on common, ideally suited factors on the other finish of the spectrum from those that establish with left-wing events, such because the Communist Party of India. Individuals who establish with events usually believed to be within the heart or center-left of Indian politics constantly fall in the course of the ideological spectrum as understood by means of the best level estimates. There is a equally sturdy affiliation between the power of a person’s ideology (on both finish of the ideological spectrum) and their reported degree of political engagement. Taken collectively, these outcomes present that people’ views on the recognized challenge areas map cleanly onto their most well-liked political events and their reported real-world political habits.

In India’s one-party-dominant system, views on the occasion in energy (the BJP) and the problems over which it has lengthy sought to ascertain possession (cultural debates over Hindu nationalism) are particularly more likely to predict a person’s ideological placement. To probe variations throughout challenge areas, people’ latent ideologies have been estimated individually for cultural and noncultural nationalist points and later standardized to facilitate comparability. Earlier within the survey, people have been requested to explain their ranges of assist for each the BJP and the Congress Party. A 3rd discovering underlines the BJP’s dominance on the nationwide scene: as determine 2 demonstrates, emotions towards the BJP (left panel), however not the Congress Party (proper panel), are strongly correlated with a person’s ideological placement.

Fourth, as proven in determine 3, it’s exactly round cultural, Hindu nationalist points that emotions towards the BJP are most predictive of ideological placement (prime left panel) whereas noncultural points are the least predictive (backside left panel). In a associated set of analyses, an endorsement from a BJP politician considerably affected respondents’ opinions about cultural points, however not financial points; that’s, people seem to take the BJP’s place under consideration when evaluating statements selling Hindu nationalism however not as a lot when evaluating statements associated to financial coverage. Further, determine 3  exhibits that emotions towards the Congress Party are usually not predictive of ideology measured both on cultural (prime proper panel) or noncultural (backside proper panel) points.

Collectively, these findings point out that ideology issues within the Indian context and that the BJP—and the problems it emphasizes—have an outsized function in figuring out ideological construction. How do these findings examine to earlier explanations of political habits in India and all over the world? Additional analyses recommend that the relationships between ideology and political habits detailed above nonetheless maintain even when accounting for variables capturing conventional explanations of politics in India: specifically, people’ ethnicities (caste class and faith) and their views on patronage politics. Further, the problems generally used to seize ideological divides within the West (navy spending and abortion), in addition to the aforementioned normal query that asks people to position themselves on a unidimensional left-right scale, don’t seem to successfully encapsulate ideological cleavages within the Indian context.^[1] These outcomes attest to the explanatory energy of political ideology in India whereas additionally suggesting that it’s structured in another way than in different areas.

Assessing Implications for India in 2024 and Beyond

How would possibly these findings form wider understanding of nationwide political dynamics? First, it could be folly to miss the central function that political ideology performs in on a regular basis politics. Individuals’ views on state intervention, minority rights, and particularly Hindu nationalism maintain vital relevance for explaining their political habits and probably their votes. Second, these findings level towards the doable crystallization of a one-party-dominant system: whereas emotions towards the BJP are extremely predictive of ideology, emotions towards the Congress Party bear comparatively little relevance. Additional analyses recommend that people who establish with no political occasion or who don’t report voting usually tend to have left-wing ideologies. This signifies that the political left generally, and the Congress Party particularly, has not been sufficiently profitable in delineating its challenge positions or establishing possession over salient political matters.

India, together with many different nations within the Global South, has lengthy been thought to lack the city center class, state capability, and established occasion techniques to advertise policy-driven politics. The outcomes point out, on the contrary, that ideology issues in contexts equivalent to India, however that the problems round which it’s structured—in addition to people’ perceptions of the place they stand in relation to it—might differ from these which are prevalent elsewhere. In quick, concepts do matter in Indian politics; students and policymakers have simply been wanting within the unsuitable place.

In the months forward, Carnegie students and contributors shall be analyzing numerous dimensions of India’s upcoming election battle—together with the function international coverage performs, the affect of welfare schemes, and the way know-how has reshaped campaigning.

Notes

¹Regarding the previous, the examine finds that ideally suited factors primarily based on “classically Western” points (abortion and navy spending) do little to distinguish Indian political events from one another. And, to the extent that they do, variations don’t map onto understandings of events’ or their supporters’ ideological positioning. Regarding the latter, we discover that ideological self-placement on a seven-point scale from “left” to “right,” as is usually elicited in research on the West, poorly predicts Indian respondents’ ideally suited level estimates and ranges of political engagement.