On the Opposition not capitalising on alternatives

The Opposition is just not going to wrestle at all times. Never underestimate the Opposition in India. Opposition events or formations might be weak however the Opposition is just not weak in India. Lots of us assume that within the final 10 years Modi has had a one-way run. That’s not true. The Opposition had a minimum of three alternatives — 2015 electoral losses in Delhi and Bihar, misery as a result of 2016 demonetisation and the 2018 electoral losses — once they might have pushed the BJP on the backfoot. But it did nothing. It allowed the BJP to make a comeback. Those against the BJP have given alternatives however the Opposition has not capitalised on them.

On whether or not the Opposition is but to search out the language to tackle the BJP’s Hindutva

I do know lots of people sitting in Delhi are obsessive about this concept of Hindutva. Let’s say those that imagine within the BJP’s Hindutva are with them. But even when they’re with them, let’s assume that there are lots of people who’re followers of Mr Modi. They have the organisation, they’ve the message, equipment, every little thing. But put collectively, they’re solely 38.

Of the hundred individuals who went to vote, solely 38 voted for the BJP. The remaining 62,

regardless of the plenty, regardless of Hindutva, regardless of the organisation, regardless of the muscle, had been nonetheless against the BJP. Now the problem is: how you can get nearly all of this 62… So I wouldn’t spend time on how you can counter Hindutva. I might say how do I first galvanise those that are usually not satisfied with this Hindutva.

On the BJP consolidating their votes post-Mandir

My sense is that Mandir is a really massive concern, a giant chatter level. It will definitely enthuse BJP cadres, supporters, voters and to that extent perhaps the polling share will probably be larger… But I don’t meet many individuals who say that due to the Mandir, I’m shifting (to BJP).

I’ve seen that although, to my shock, within the case of Article 370. There are many extra incremental voters which have come BJP’s manner, courtesy Article 370 than the Mandir. The Mandir is certainly a steroid nevertheless it’s not going to provide you an incremental vote.

On an ideological shift in society

I don’t see a tectonic shift in Hindu society, that as a group we’re getting extra radical, that impulsively now we have began hating Muslims, that we wish Hindu Rashtra. No. Over the final 30 or 40 years of effort of the Sangh at societal stage, it has moved the needle from 40 per cent Hindus to 45 per cent. It takes much more time and effort than what we predict.

The second it crosses 55 per cent, then you must begin taking note of the decision of sanatana dharma, Hindu Rashtra and all. You want a minimal of 55 to 60 per cent Hindus to be following and shopping for that concept as a result of the second you could have 60 per cent Hindus voting for the BJP, you might be speaking a few 48 per cent-plus vote. But despite the fact that plainly from 45 to 55 is barely 10 share factors, it might take 20 to 30 years. And if there’s a counter, then it might go down once more.

So it has taken nearly 50 years-plus effort on the a part of the Sangh to have this stage of, I might say, not polarisation, however Hindus coming collectively underneath the thought as professed by it, of a Hindu ideology, however nonetheless they haven’t crossed 50 per cent.

On ‘secular’ changing into a unhealthy phrase

The Opposition is just not shedding due to utilizing the phrase secular. It is shedding as a result of they aren’t as much as the duty, they’ve been lazy. You made the INDIA alliance, for no matter it’s value, 9 months earlier than the final elections. What prevented all these sensible women and men who’re operating the Opposition events to do that two years in the past or instantly after the Bengal (elections), when the chips had been down for BJP?

From the primary assembly of the INDIA alliance in June 2023 to now, they haven’t accomplished a single public assembly. The complete variety of work hours for them is six days.

On whether or not the argument of democracy being at risk resonates with voters

It does and it doesn’t. It does and that’s why you see very completely different ends in Lok Sabha versus Vidhan Sabha. You go to the village and also you ask an individual that you just voted for Modi in Lok Sabha, so why are you voting for a regional get together or any person else in Vidhan Sabha? Among one

of essentially the most cited causes is we don’t need all energy within the fingers of 1 individual. So centralisation of energy, the worry of 1 individual changing into too robust — the frequent individual understands this higher than you and me. And the argument doesn’t as a result of India has seen this type of centralisation of energy previously as effectively. So should you discuss to the BJP supporters about misuse of establishments, they’ll instantly say that it occurred throughout Indira Gandhi’s time as effectively.

On being ideology-agnostic

My strategy has been, don’t make your self and your judgments subservient to ideology. And to that extent, sure, I’m ideologically agnostic. I don’t wish to change into a prisoner of ideology. If I believe one thing is fallacious, I will need to have the braveness to go and say it’s fallacious, whether or not it’s coming from my ideological base or opposing my ideological base.

On the BJP getting Nitish Kumar

BJP has not bought Nitish Kumar as a result of he’ll get them extra votes. BJP goes to lose seats in Bihar in Lok Sabha  as a result of they should now regulate Nitish Kumar, so they are going to be combating for fewer variety of seats. They have gotten him as a result of they needed to kill this perceptional factor that, you already know, there’s an Opposition alliance or block referred to as INDIA.

By taking one of many founders of INDIA, they’ve given a giant psychological blow to the Opposition somewhat than them taking as a result of they can’t win Bihar or they can’t do politics in Bihar with out Nitish Kumar. So I might say BJP is aware of the info and the info, nevertheless it’s a technique the place they’ve determined to lose the battle to win the conflict.

On the ladies’s vote

Increasingly, increasingly political events win  or lose purely on the idea of the ladies’s vote. In Bengal, the distinction

between women and men voting for TMC (All India Trinamool Congress) was 13 share factors. So all the boys who assume that they management their wives, they’re making a giant mistake. Some of the commentary which I see within the papers says that as a result of girls turnout is extra, therefore XYZ has gained. Please learn the info fastidiously, it’s largely a denominator impact. There are fewer girls registered as voters, therefore generally simply the voting share seems extra for the ladies, truly it’s no more… Women who’re going to vote have their very own points, they’re much smarter however they’re much less expressive and that’s why surveys are inclined to get girls preferences fallacious.

If these politicians had been shares, who would you decide: Akhilesh Yadav, Aditya Thackeray, Chirag Paswan, KTR (KT Rama Rao), Jagan Reddy, Raghav Chadha, Omar Abdullah, Udhayanidhi Stalin, Abhishek Banerjee.

They are all potted vegetation, so none.

So give us your decide.

I don’t know the title however I’ll simply borrow one thing I heard from Bill Gates. He was requested, ‘Who will replace you as the richest person on the planet’? He mentioned, ‘I don’t know who will, however I do know for certain that the individual who’s going to exchange me is just not within the enterprise right this moment. Because if he would have been within the enterprise I might not have surpassed him’.

Is there one individual, who is just not in politics right this moment, who you assume has a terrific alternative in politics?

Anyone keen to place in 12 hours and has a 10-year plan has a chance.

What is the primary weak point that will damage the BJP electorally?

Over-dependence on Mr Modi.

BJP after Modi — who’s prone to take his place?

Whoever comes will probably be extra of a hardliner than Mr Modi.

The one factor you’ve realized from Nitish Kumar?

The capability to maneuver and achieve from the place of weak point. He has by no means labored from the place of power.

Would you advise state events to push for caste census?

State events sure, nationwide events no. The Congress paid a heavy worth in MP and Chhattisgarh for overplaying this card.

One secret ingredient behind Naveen Patnaik’s political longevity.

Just remaining out of sight. If you aren’t seen, it’s very tough to assault you.

If Mayawati had been to name you and ask for recommendation, what would you say?

That I’ve retired.

If you’re studying Mayawati’s e book right this moment, what chapter are we on?

The final chapter is already written.

Which establishment has a greater finger on the heart beat of the nation — RSS or BJP?

The RSS, any day.

Between Stalin, Mamata, Kejriwal, Jagan, Uddhav, Nitesh and Amrinder, which marketing campaign was the hardest?

Toughest was Punjab in 2017 as a result of it was with Amrinder Singh and the Congress, towards the rising pressure of AAP.

One massive distinction between the Modi of 2019 and the Modi of 2024.

In 2019, he was taking India to better glory. In 2024, he’s bringing God to India.

Identity or welfare, which one in all these is the stronger election weapon?

Welfare. A foul authorities, irrespective of how a lot you play (the identification card), whether or not it’s mandal or kamandal, offers you some votes however not victory.

The one factor that should change in Dravidian politics?

Dependence on caste. The affect of cash in politics is way better and worrisome than what it’s in northern India.

If you had been to foretell seats for BJP, NDA?

I might say, as of now, the Modi-led NDA or BJP has a big benefit.

Is there something Prashant Kishor is afraid of?

I’m afraid of getting up within the morning and realising that my mind is just not working.