Islamabad, Pakistan — It was a quick, formal alternate.

On March 5, two days after Shehbaz Sharif grew to become Pakistan’s twenty fourth prime minister, his Indian counterpart posted a 13-word message on social media platform X. “Congratulations to @CMShehbaz on being sworn in as the Prime Minister of Pakistan,” the Indian premier wrote.

Sharif took two days to reply. “Thank you @narendramodi for felicitations on my election as the Prime Minister of Pakistan,” he wrote on March 7.

Modi’s congratulatory message and Sharif’s response set off questions, even in a US State Department briefing, in regards to the prospect of a detente between the nuclear-armed subcontinental neighbours which have barely practical diplomatic relations. The State Department weighed in, saying it hoped for a “productive and peaceful relationship” between New Delhi and Islamabad.

But regardless that the Pakistani prime minister’s elder brother Nawaz Sharif has an extended historical past of looking for breakthroughs with India – together with with Modi – analysts on each side of the border say that the route of ties can solely be gauged after India’s upcoming nationwide elections, scheduled to happen in April and May.

Maleeha Lodhi, a retired Pakistani diplomat who has served as ambassador to the United Nations, United States in addition to the United Kingdom, stated that managing relations with New Delhi will show the “most vexing” overseas coverage check for the present authorities.

“It’s true that previous PMLN were amenable to engage with India but it used to be reciprocal,” she informed Al Jazeera, referring to the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN), the social gathering of the Sharif brothers. “But in the present day there are lots of obstacles to normalising ties which aren’t simple to beat.

“With India going to the polls this year, any significant engagement will have to wait till after the elections.”

Kashmir conundrum

Arguably, the biggest obstacle to any motion in the direction of normalcy between the neighbours stays the query of the Kashmir valley, the picturesque, however contentious Himalayan area over which they’ve fought a number of wars since gaining independence from British rule in 1947. The area is claimed in full by each, however every solely governs elements of it.

New Delhi has accused Islamabad of backing Kashmiri armed rebels combating both for independence or for a merger with Pakistan. Islamabad has denied the allegations, saying it solely supplies diplomatic help to the area’s wrestle for the fitting to self-determination.

Relations between India and Pakistan additional worsened in 2019 when Modi’s Hindu nationalist authorities revoked Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, which used to present Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir partial autonomy.

Kashmir is on the coronary heart of the variations between India and Pakistan, and is a topic through which every of the neighbours has set situations for talks which can be unacceptable to the opposite. India insists that the standing of Jammu and Kashmir is an inner matter for the nation. Pakistani leaders, then again – together with the Sharif brothers – have linked progress in ties with India to a reversal of the 2019 resolution by New Delhi.

Former Indian excessive commissioner to Pakistan, Sharat Sabharwal stated that if the intention is to enhance relations, the ball is in Pakistan’s courtroom, including that it was Pakistan that suspended commerce in addition to downgraded diplomatic illustration.

“Since then, it has made engagement with India contingent upon India reversing its move to end the special status of Jammu and Kashmir under the Indian Constitution. This is just not going to happen,” he informed Al Jazeera. “It is for the Pakistan government to take a more pragmatic and constructive view if things are to move forward.”

The Sharif contact

Yet, regardless of the powerful posturing on each side, some analysts are cautiously optimistic about the potential of a renewed try by the 2 governments to enhance ties, largely due to the historical past that the Sharifs share with Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party.

In February 1999, the then-Indian Prime Minister from the BJP, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, took a bus experience throughout the border to Lahore to fulfill Nawaz Sharif, who was then in his second stint as prime minister.

Nawaz and Vajpayee signed a treaty that was seen as an historic confidence-building breakthrough between the 2 nations, lower than a yr after each of them carried out nuclear checks that had escalated tensions within the area.

However, three months after the treaty, the 2 nations engaged in a warfare in Kargil in Indian-administered Kashmir. India accused Pakistani troopers of infiltrating into territory it managed. Nawaz blamed his then-military chief, General Pervez Musharraf and different prime commanders for orchestrating the incursion behind his again.

Only a number of months later, Musharraf carried out a navy coup in October 1999 through which Sharif was faraway from energy, simply two years after assuming cost because the prime minister.

A yr after Nawaz lastly returned to energy in 2013, the BJP, too, got here again into workplace after a decade in opposition – this time with Modi as prime minister. Nawaz joined leaders from throughout South Asia in travelling to New Delhi for Modi’s oath-taking ceremony.

Then, on Christmas day in December 2015, Modi surprised each nations with a shock go to to Lahore to attend the marriage of Nawaz’s granddaughter. The Pakistani authorities stated that the 2 nations would restart a proper dialogue and introduced a gathering of senior diplomats in January 2016.

But merely every week later, 4 attackers focused an Indian Air Force base which resulted within the deaths of a minimum of eight Indians, together with safety personnel.

India as soon as once more blamed Pakistan for the incident and demanded it arrest the perpetrators behind the assault. In September 2016, after armed fighters attacked an Indian Army outpost in Kashmir, Indian troopers crossed over into Pakistani-administered territory to raid what New Delhi described as “militant launch pads”.

Three years later, in February 2019, simply earlier than India’s final nationwide elections, tensions soared once more, after 46 Indian paramilitary troopers had been killed in a suicide bombing in Indian-administered Kashmir. The Indian Air Force responded with a strike inside Pakistani territory, saying it focused fighters’ coaching camps.

Pakistani jets in flip entered Indian airspace the following day. An Indian Air Force jet that chased Pakistani planes was shot down, its pilot captured. The standoff calmed down after Pakistan returned the pilot, Abhinandan Varthaman, two days after his arrest.

This complicated historical past of steps in the direction of talks which have usually unravelled earlier than any significant progress is made is proof, to many observers – and Indian diplomats specifically – of the affect of the Pakistani navy within the relationship between the 2 nations. Some Indian analysts have accused the Pakistani military of sabotaging previous peace initiatives.

But to others, the February 2019 skirmish underlined how Pakistan figures in Indian election calculations. Modi’s reputation benefitted from the episode, which his social gathering framed as an illustration of energy in opposition to Pakistan. The BJP returned to energy in May that yr with a fair greater mandate than in 2014.

Signs of a shift?

Despite a proper diplomatic chill, the 2 nations discovered some frequent floor in February 2021, after they renewed a two-decade-old ceasefire pact alongside the 725km (450 miles) Line of Control, the de facto border that divides Kashmir between the 2 nations.

Then, in 2022, when Shehbaz Sharif grew to become the prime minister for the primary time after the elimination of Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) by means of a parliamentary vote of no confidence, Modi congratulated him and stated he wished to work collectively to convey “peace and stability” to the area.

Radha Kumar, a New Delhi-based overseas coverage professional, spots a shift within the Pakistani navy’s strategy to India, too.

“I would say that there does appear to have been some change in the Pakistan army’s thinking insofar as hostilities have been relatively contained during the past few years. But we do not know how far the containment has been due to heavy security on the Indian side,” she informed Al Jazeera.

Yet, contemplating the political instability in Pakistan and the nation’s persevering with financial disaster, different analysts say that Shehbaz and his authorities – which solely got here to energy after cobbling collectively an alliance with conventional political rivals – have little manoeuvring room.

Islamabad-based overseas coverage professional and researcher Muhammad Faisal stated that New Delhi has realised it could actually run its regional overseas coverage extra successfully whereas “ignoring” Pakistan. Meanwhile, the Pakistani authorities will want inner consensus earlier than participating with India.

“The government needs express support from its ruling partners as well as the military to explore any outreach to India. Rival parties, especially the opposition, will oppose any engagement with India – it is a test of PM Sharif’s political craft if he can build a political consensus,” he informed Al Jazeera.

Kumar, who can also be the writer of Paradise at War: A Political History of Kashmir, acknowledged the political challenges. But, she stated, leaders who take the gamble of making an attempt higher ties would possibly discover fashionable help.

“Like India, Pakistan is in a state of high political polarisation. In Pakistan, opposition politicians will seize on anything that can be seen as ‘soft’ towards India, and in India BJP politicians will seize on any opposition ‘softness’ towards Pakistan,” she stated. “So if the leaders in both countries want to engage in peacemaking, they will have to be resolute. I think they will both get support from sizable sections of the public.”

Vivek Katju, a former Indian diplomat, stated Pakistan additionally wanted to open up its commerce borders with India to revive its financial well being.

“Pakistan is at a critical point, something the new prime minister acknowledged in his speech. But it cannot transform itself unless it revises its approach and relationship with its neighbours, particularly India, and bring a fresh, objective mindset, viz a viz Jammu and Kashmir,” he informed Al Jazeera.

However, Aizaz Chaudhry, who was Pakistan’s overseas secretary throughout Modi’s 2015 go to, stated that any gesture from Pakistan was unlikely to be “reciprocated” by India in the mean time.

“Indian leadership is pursuing the goal of Hindu nationalism and has followed a no-contact policy with Pakistan,” he informed Al Jazeera. “The government should wait until Indians change their mind and show they want peaceful relations with Pakistan.”