Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s authorities has approached a serious Indian suppose tank to develop a homegrown democracy scores index that might assist it counter latest downgrades in rankings issued by worldwide teams that New Delhi fears might have an effect on the nation’s credit standing.

The Observer Research Foundation (ORF), which works carefully with the Indian authorities on a number of initiatives, is making ready the scores framework, in accordance with two individuals carefully concerned within the discussions on the challenge. The index is predicted to hew extra carefully to New Delhi’s narrative than Western-based rankings that Modi’s group has criticised.

“A review meeting was held by NITI Aayog in January, and it was decided that ORF will be releasing Democracy Rankings in a few weeks,” a high authorities official stated, requesting anonymity.

The new rankings system may very well be launched quickly, the official stated. How quickly, although, is unclear – together with whether or not the index is perhaps unveiled earlier than India’s upcoming nationwide elections, introduced final Saturday. India will vote in seven phases beginning April 19, with votes counted on June 4. Modi is a robust favorite to return to energy for a 3rd time period.

“The Democracy Index being prepared by ORF went through a peer review process and expert analysis on the methodology a few weeks ago … it is likely to be released soon,” a second supply aware of the event stated.

ORF, which co-hosts the Raisina Dialogue – India’s equal of the Munich Security Conference and the Shangri-La Dialogue, different main geopolitics, and geo-economics conclaves – with the nation’s Ministry of External Affairs, didn’t reply to queries from Al Jazeera. The Raisina Dialogue was held this 12 months between February 21 and February 23.

The NITI Aayog, the federal government’s personal public coverage suppose tank that has been shepherding inner discussions throughout the Modi authorities on world rankings, stated it was not making ready the index – however didn’t affirm nor deny whether or not it was concerned in serving to an exterior suppose tank put together one.

“NITI is not developing any Democracy Index,” a spokesperson for the physique advised Al Jazeera. “The government of India monitors select global indices [by various global entities] to drive reforms and growth in the country.”

Yet emails and the minutes of conferences held between authorities companies over the previous three years, accessed and reviewed by Al Jazeera, level to a rising urgency throughout the Modi administration on difficult setbacks to India’s democracy credentials, together with via a report ready by India.

‘Flawed democracy’ or ‘self-appointed custodians’?

This train started proper after worldwide indices similar to US-based non-profit Freedom House downgraded India’s standing from a free democracy to a “partially free democracy” in 2021. The V-Dem Institute, primarily based in Sweden, labeled India as an “electoral autocracy”. The Economist Intelligence Unit ranked India 53rd in its 2020 Democracy Index, labelling it a “flawed democracy”, citing components such because the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the revocation of particular standing in Indian-administered Kashmir.

The CAA, whose implementation was introduced final week on the eve of elections – 4 years after it was handed by parliament – introduces what critics say is India’s first religion-based citizenship take a look at. In impact, asylum seekers from neighbouring nations who weren’t Muslims can get an expedited path to Indian nationality. The NRC initiative, in accordance with its opponents, threatens the expulsion of tens of millions of individuals whose households have lived in jap and northeastern India for generations, however who – like many Indians – would not have formal beginning paperwork. In 2019, India ended a particular constitutional provision that gave Jammu and Kashmir a semi-autonomous standing.

India’s rating within the Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) Democracy Index had fallen sharply between 2016 and 2020, although it has improved marginally since then: as much as 41 (tied with Poland) in 2023, from 46 in 2022. However, it stays labeled as a “flawed democracy”.

The Indian authorities has dismissed these worldwide rankings, stating that India didn’t “need sermons”. Indian Foreign Affairs Minister S Jaishankar in March 2021 accused the establishments behind these rankings of “hypocrisy” and referred to as them “self-appointed custodians of the world who find it very difficult to stomach that somebody in India is not looking for their approval”.

‘What can we do about it?’

Yet, regardless of public bravado, behind the scenes, the Indian authorities has been anxious.

In 2021, high officers from central Indian authorities ministries and departments similar to residence affairs, exterior affairs and the legislative departments, amongst others, had been instructed by Cabinet Secretary Rajiv Gauba to watch India’s efficiency in democracy indices and establish areas the place the nation’s standing had declined.

The Indian authorities started monitoring its efficiency in 30 world indices, with totally different ministries tasked with monitoring particular person scores. For occasion, the legislative division beneath the Ministry of Law and Justice was assigned the EIU’s Democracy Index to observe. The NITI Aayog was requested to create a dashboard for monitoring knowledge throughout all of the indices.

In a evaluation assembly for monitoring of those indices taken by the cupboard secretary in July 2022, it was famous within the minutes of the assembly that the NITI Aayog’s then-CEO Amitabh Kant “proposed prioritising Global Indices carrying high reputational risk for monitoring by NITI Aayog”.

The minutes of the assembly additionally famous that Sanjeev Sanyal, member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister “drew attention of the Committee to faulty methodologies, inadequate sample sizes, undue weightage to perception-based surveys, one size fits all global standards for benchmarking and biased approach of Publishing Agencies/data agencies”.

They additionally famous that because the Worldwide Governance Indicators “published by World Bank impacts sovereign rating, [Sanjeev Sanyal] advocated the need for flagging India’s concerns. He observed that we should demand accountability and transparency in these matters from the World Bank, as also other multilateral bodies which publish some of the Global Indices”.

The World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) report each mixture and particular person governance indicators for greater than 200 nations and are key inputs utilized by scores companies in figuring out the sovereign scores of countries. India’s personal inner evaluation has beforehand discovered that India’s scores had been “much below” its friends on all counts. The authorities evaluation acknowledged that India wanted to do higher and stated there was a hazard India might witness a drop in WGI scores “due to the latest negative commentary on India by think tanks, survey agencies and international media”.

This was even highlighted in June 2020, when Sanyal, then principal financial adviser within the Ministry of Finance, ready a presentation titled “Subjective Factors that Impact India’s Sovereign Ratings: What Can We Do About It?” for inner circulation throughout the authorities. It stated components famous within the Freedom House report additionally led to the nation receiving the biggest rating decline among the many world’s 25 largest democracies in 2020. The Freedom House Report 2020 talked about “alarming setbacks in the world’s largest democracy” and highlighted that “a series of actions by India’s Hindu nationalist government in 2019 violated democratic rights in India and Indian Kashmir”.

Concerns with world scores

The Indian authorities just isn’t alone in disputing the parameters that companies use for sovereign scores. Independent economists too have challenged these indices.

“We have known that the major component of a sovereign rating is the per capita income of a country,” stated Rathin Roy, a senior fellow on the UK-based Overseas Development Institute. “That has been the main criticism of India and other major developing countries, like Brazil and Indonesia. And that’s a criticism I fully support.”

But Roy questioned the federal government’s emphasis on proving India’s democratic credentials and the hyperlink to the nation’s sovereign ranking.

“If you look at stuff like democracy and political stability, their weightage in the sovereign rating is fairly small,” he stated. “It may be true that they form part of the qualitative assessment of rating agencies. And these agencies may be biased. But I think the interesting story here is, why is this government bothered about relatively small stuff like democracy in the ratings, as opposed to the major elephant in the room, which is per capita income?”

Just months after Sanyal’s June 2020 presentation, the Indian authorities started to take steps to develop its personal index in a bid to rebut Western downgrades. “We may encourage one of the Indian independent think tanks to bring out its own annual world democracy report based on comprehensive parameters,” the Foreign Ministry wrote in an inner be aware in January 2021.

In its be aware, the ministry additionally instructed that Indian diplomatic missions internationally actively have interaction with organisations like V-Dem and Reporters Without Borders (RSF) to provide them info that may assist them put “India at the rightful place on the democracy and press-freedom index, in future reports”. India’s rating within the World Press Freedom Index fell from one hundred and fiftieth in 2022 to 161st this 12 months out of 180 nations, in accordance with the newest report launched by world media watchdog RSF.

The Law Ministry turned to India’s High Commission in London to hunt particulars from the EIU on its evaluation of India. In an electronic mail trade in July 2021 between the Law and Foreign Ministries, it was revealed that repeated makes an attempt had been made by the mission to contact EIU. “EIU did not welcome any engagement as it took several attempts over a period of time to finally connect,” the be aware stated, and “politely but firmly declined the offer from the mission to supply data, research or similar inputs.”

‘Will damage India’s case’

But that didn’t deter the Indian authorities. Also in 2021, the Indian Foreign Ministry nudged Om Birla, the speaker of India’s decrease home in Parliament, to transient heads of overseas missions in New Delhi on the robustness of Indian democracy. It ready “speaking notes” for him.

“A large democratic world exists beyond the West, one that gives democracy and pluralism a more universal appeal. But for that to make itself felt in the current situation, the power of ideas and strength of beliefs need to be stronger than the prejudices of history. Whether such convergences can override entrenched frameworks is still an open question. India holds the key to the answer,” the notes learn.

And on Tuesday, India’s Foreign Minister S Jaishankar referenced historical Indian scriptures as proof of India’s lengthy democratic traditions, in an deal with on the Summit of Democracy in South Korea. “India’s ancient civilisation, marked by profound philosophical traditions, and a deep respect for individual freedom, laid the groundwork for the democratic ideals that we cherish today,” he stated.

Roy, the economist, stated the federal government’s strategy appeared to betray insecurity about “its own approach to democracy, press freedom and other things, which are negative irrespective of their subjective impact on ratings”.

An India-developed democracy ranking might backfire on the nation, he stated. Other nations and organisations wouldn’t give it credibility if the index is perceived as being pushed by the Indian authorities, he stated.

“In fact, I would say that if the government started this sort of exercise, it would damage India’s case. It would be best to ignore the democracy and other subjective elements of sovereign ratings given their minor weight,” Roy stated.

It is unclear what parameters an Indian-designed democracy scores index may use. Al Jazeera despatched detailed questionnaires to the Foreign Ministry, Law Ministry and ORF however has obtained no response. In response to an electronic mail in search of feedback, Sanjeev Sanyal’s workplace declined to remark stating: “Shri Sanjeev Sanyal ji, Member EAC-PM has a hectic official schedule, hence request for comment is regretted.”