Mask mandates and social distancing could save hundreds of thousands of lives, but there is “a tremendous amount of COVID fatigue” among the world’s government leaders because of economic downturns, Dr Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington said.

Most of the world’s population lives in the Northern Hemisphere. Respiratory illnesses tend to peak in winter months, a seasonal effect expected to hold true for COVID-19, Dr Murray said.

Disease models are based on assumptions about human behavior, so there is a large amount of uncertainty.

The IHME model projects the wave will peak globally in mid-December at 30,000 deaths per day and in the United States in early December at about 2900 deaths per day.

India, the United States, Brazil, Mexico, and Japan will lead the world in total deaths by January 1, according to the forecast.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus made the comment even as Russia and China have started using their experimental vaccines before long-term studies have been completed. Other countries have proposed streamlining authorisation procedures.

He says vaccines have been used successfully for decades and credited them with eradicating smallpox and bringing polio to near elimination.

He pointed to newly developed Ebola vaccines that helped end the recent Ebola outbreak in Congo.

Mr Tedros appealed to people opposed to vaccination to do their own research.

“The anti-vaccine movement, they can build narratives to fight against vaccines,” he said.

“But the track record of vaccines tells its own story and people should not be confused.

“They can have a look for themselves on how the world actually used vaccines to reduce under five mortality to save children.”

Mr Tedros says he’s hopeful there’d soon be an effective coronavirus vaccine “so the world can get back to normal”.