It’s a no-brainer that COP26 should achieve something meaningful. But that’s a tough ask. Nations can’t even agree on the most important baselines like net-zero emissions or the when and how much of green financing. Different groups of nations have different priorities, understandably. For example, the UK’s proposal on phasing out coal in a short time looks to be undoable for large coal-dependent economies like China and India.

India exemplifies the bewildering complexity of climate mitigation efforts. It has a large number of people dependent on the coal economy for jobs and 70% dependence on coal for energy needs. The grim reality is coal has a large footprint across many Indian states, and moving away from coal is as much a political job as a technological one. And not just coal mining, the political economy of climate change includes industries like thermal power, cement, iron and steel, all of which are major economic players in some states. The long transition from a coal economy can witness stiff regional political pushbacks.

Plus, with over half its 1.3 billion population under 30 and a significant proportion still tied down to agriculture and looking for an escape, India must keep churning out non-rural jobs. Manufacturing remains the best bet here, as it was for East Asian economies transitioning out of rural societies. And as millions see higher incomes, Indians will buy more air-conditioners and cars. All this is potentially climate-negative.

Clean technology is obviously an answer. And here, trying to morally shame rich countries into providing financing and IP-free tech is unlikely to work. After all, rich and middle-income countries, India included, were quite happy to vaccinate their own populations without aiding poor countries substantially. India, a major economy that hopes to grow fast, therefore has too much to lose by simply waiting for tech transfers from the West. GoI’s plans on green hydrogen, a clean fuel that’s well within India’s technological capacity to produce in very large quantities, must be executed fast. And GoI should create a separate and generous fund for incubating clean tech, and incentivise private players further via huge tax breaks. This fund should be managed by professionals hired from industry and academia, and should be free of bureaucratic interference. We managed to become a space power and a nuclear power. There’s no reason we can’t become a climate power.

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