The third issue is the chance of a dull planet producing the noticed sign—an equally severe problem, researchers now understand, that’s twisted up in the issue of unconceived abiotic alternate options.

“That’s the probability that we argue you can’t fill in responsibly,” Vickers mentioned. “It could almost range from anything from zero to 1.”

Consider the case of K2-18 b, a “mini-Neptune” that’s intermediate in dimension between Earth and Neptune. In 2023, JWST knowledge revealed a statistically weak signal of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) in its ambiance. On Earth, DMS is produced by marine organisms. The researchers who tentatively detected it on K2-18 b interpreted the opposite gases found in its sky to imply that the planet is a “water world” with a liveable floor ocean, supporting their concept that the DMS there comes from marine life. But different scientists interpret the identical observations as proof of an inhospitable, gaseous planetary composition extra like Neptune’s.

Unconceived alternate options have already pressured astrobiologists a number of instances to revise their concepts about what makes an excellent biosignature. When phosphine was detected on Venus, scientists didn’t know of any methods it might be produced on a dull rocky world. Since then, they’ve recognized a number of possible abiotic sources of the gas. One state of affairs is that volcanoes launch chemical compounds known as phosphides, which might react with sulfur dioxide in Venus’ ambiance to kind phosphine—a believable rationalization provided that scientists have discovered proof of energetic volcanism on our twin planet. Likewise, oxygen was thought of a biosignature gasoline till the 2010s, when researchers together with Victoria Meadows on the NASA Astrobiology Institute’s Virtual Planetary Laboratory began to find ways that rocky planets might accumulate oxygen with out a biosphere. For instance, oxygen can form from sulfur dioxide, which abounds on worlds as numerous as Venus and Europa.

Today, astrobiologists have largely deserted the concept a single gasoline might be a biosignature. Instead, they give attention to figuring out “ensembles,” or units of gases that couldn’t coexist with out life. If something might be known as right this moment’s gold-standard biosignature, it’s the mix of oxygen and methane. Methane quickly degrades in oxygen-rich atmospheres. On Earth, the 2 gases solely coexist as a result of the biosphere repeatedly replenishes them.

So far, scientists haven’t managed to give you an abiotic rationalization for oxygen-methane biosignatures. But Vickers, Smith and Mathis doubt that this specific pair—or maybe any mixture of gases—will ever be convincing. “There’s no way to be certain that what we’re looking at is actually a consequence of life, as opposed to a consequence of some unknown geochemical process,” Smith mentioned.

“JWST is not a life detector. It’s a telescope that can tell us what gases are in the atmosphere of a planet,” Mathis mentioned.

Sarah Rugheimer, an astrobiologist at York University who research exoplanet atmospheres, is extra sanguine. She’s actively trying into alternate abiotic explanations for ensemble biosignatures like oxygen and methane. Still, she says, “I would be popping open a bottle of champagne—very expensive champagne—if we saw oxygen, methane, and water, and CO₂” on an exoplanet.