New Delhi: With a lot of growing international locations clamouring to affix the BRICS international locations, India is cautious concerning the dynamics of an expanded bloc and has indicated that it’ll give desire to its “Strategic Partners”.

BRICS initially consisted of Brazil, Russia, India, and China – an acronym coined by Goldman Sachs within the Nineties to advertise funding in rising economies. South Africa was the primary non-original member to affix the group, making it becoming that the African nation chairs a summit centered on increasing the group.

Last 12 months’s Beijing Declaration mandated the 5 member states to carry “discussions” to make clear the “guiding principles, standards, criteria and procedures for this expansion process through the sherpas’ channel on the basis of full consultation and consensus”.

Although all members have typically agreed to the thought of growth, figuring out the factors has concerned extended negotiations resulting from differing visions amongst members relating to the group’s future composition. On Wednesday, South Africa’s Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor said that the group had reached an settlement on the factors and that an announcement could be made within the summit’s remaining declaration on Thursday.

Given the 22 official candidates, geographical quotas and financial energy would more than likely additionally play a job within the qualification course of.

As per Indian sources, the BRICS leaders’ retreat on Tuesday night witnessed “significant development” on the difficulty of growth. 

“India took the lead in forging a consensus on membership criteria and the selection of new members,” an Indian official mentioned.. India’s efforts have been “guided by our objective to incorporate our Strategic Partners as new members”, added the officers.

The subsequent day, the Indian prime minister asserted on the BRICS plenary that India “fully supports” growth, including that it “welcomes moving forward with consensus in this”.

Given BRICS’ decision-making course of is reliant on consensus, the addition of countries extra inclined towards China’s perspective could be diplomatically difficult. 

India has a ‘strategic partnership’ with at the very least seven of the candidates, starting from the UAE to Argentina and Vietnam. However, there is no such thing as a readability relating to whether or not the time period ‘Strategic Partners,’ as utilized by Indian sources above, pertains to the formal standing of the bilateral relationship or serves as an analysis of the nation’s significance to India.

Here is The Wire’s analysis of how India probably views the 22 countries who’ve utilized for membership to BRICS.

Algeria 

India’s stake: With a historical past of working collectively within the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), India’s relationship with the North African state has largely been freed from any irritants. However, Algeria’s financial relationship with China has grown by leaps and bounds. Algiers claims that China was the primary non-Arab nation to recognise Algeria’s provisional authorities in 1958. China has since develop into crucial financial commerce associate of Algeria, displacing the previous colonial international locations of France and Italy.

Argentina

India’s stake: India has had a strategic partnership with Argentina since 2019, which is a barometer of its curiosity within the nation. Ahead of the BRICS summit, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva supported Argentina’s inclusion within the group. For Argentina, entry to the New Development Bank, additionally known as BRICS Bank, is especially engaging because it struggles with depleted international reserves, excessive inflation and debt repayments to the International Monetary Fund.

Bangladesh

India’s stake: For India, Dhaka’s candidature could be a comparatively straightforward choose. Bangladesh, beneath the Sheikh Hasina authorities, has been India’s closest neighbour. While China stays a prime donor and likewise a supply of funding for Bangladesh, New Delhi continues to have substantial confidence in Dhaka – so long as the Awami League is on the helm. The relationship just isn’t formally termed as a strategic one, however the 2022 joint statement mentioned that the state of bilateral relations “transcends even a strategic partnership”.

Bahrain

India’s stake: With Bahrain having signed the Abraham Accords to normalise ties with Israel, Bahrain is actually within the good books of Washington and different Western capitals. Given Manama’s proximity to Riyadh, it was additionally perceived as Saudi Arabia’s try to take care of ties with Israel with out direct ties. Its shut ties with the US and Saudi Arabia – in addition to internet hosting the US Navy’s fifth fleet – contribute to its important strategic standing within the area.

Belarus

India’s stake: As Russia’s closest ally in Central Asia and likewise a goal of Western sanctions as a result of Ukraine struggle, it received’t be a shock to anticipate Belarus to toe the anti-West line in BRICS. While Russia and China are more likely to again Belarus, India could stay extra ambiguous.

Bolivia

India’s stake: Bolivia has been utilizing its huge Lithium reserves, estimated to be the largest on the earth, to draw traders from giant economies because it struggles to ramp up manufacturing on an industrial scale. Lithium-ion batteries are key elements to retailer photo voltaic, wind and different renewable vitality sources.

In 2019, then Indian President Ram Nath Kovind travelled to Bolivia, the place the international locations agreed to “work together for exploration and extraction of the vast Lithium deposits”. Five years later, Bolivia announced in June this year that it has signed offers with Russian and Chinese companies price $1.4 billion to develop lithium extraction. While relations with the US have been particularly hostile beneath the Evo Morales presidency, there has not been substantial enchancment in ties beneath Louis Arce both. Besides Russia and China, Bolivia has sturdy relations with Cuba, Iran and Venezuela. Bolivia had abstained from voting in UN resolutions relating to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Cuba

India’s stake: India’s historic rapport with Cuba has endured, though the diploma of intimacy has waned in comparison with the height of the connection in the course of the NAM period. In this context, India’s priorities could be swayed extra by the sensitivities of the US – which has lately raised an alarm about China’s spying operations in Cuba, which was vociferously denied by the latter two.

Egypt

India’s stake: With relations with Egypt having been rekindled lately, India will definitely again Cairo. The alternative is made simpler as India and Egypt additionally signed a strategic partnership earlier this year. But, with quite a few different candidates from the Gulf with whom India has a strategic partnership, it will not be straightforward for New Delhi to provide its backing to all of them directly.

Ethiopia

India’s stake: India has at all times checked out Ethiopia as one of many key African international locations, particularly because the seat of the African Union (AU). It has additionally supported Ethiopia’s place on the UN on points from the Tigray disaster to the controversy over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. With India advocating for larger AU illustration within the G-20 and UN, it might make all of the optimistic noises, even with Ethiopia having additionally deep ties with China.

Honduras

India’s stake: Earlier this 12 months, the central American state established formal ties with China, after breaking diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Soon after, Honduran President Xiomara Castro travelled to China for a six-day go to and publicly talked about applying for BRICS. India has minimal engagement which is borne out by its administering diplomatic relations with Honduras by way of its embassy in Guatemala. Similarly, Honduras’ embassy in Kuwait is accredited to the Indian authorities.

Indonesia

India’s stake: With the dimensions of its economic system and its strategic place, Indonesia has lengthy been cited as a really perfect candidate for an expanded BRICS. New Delhi has been considered in courting Indonesia, the most important economic system in ASEAN, over time. India had signed a strategic partnership with Indonesia as early as 2005, which was upgraded to a complete strategic partnership in 2018. Jakarta has additionally equally accommodated India’s requests, whether or not to alter the G-20 internet hosting 12 months or facilitate the UNSC itemizing of Maulana Masood Azhar. It additionally didn’t make an excessive amount of of a diplomatic fuss over the prison circumstances that have been lodged by police in India towards Indonesian nationals who arrived for the gathering of the Tablighi Jamaat at first of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Iran

India’s stake: India’s relationship with Iran has by way of its ups and downs – particularly after the US-India nuclear deal and imposition of sanctions on Tehran. India had minimize down its crude purchases from Iran and tried to plot fee mechanisms to avoid sanctions over time. Iran stays a extremely essential associate resulting from its proximity to Central Asia and its borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan. A decided candidate, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi spoke with the Indian PM concerning the growth on the cellphone forward of the BRICS summit. 

An Iranian membership in BRICS will surely be seen as cocking a snook on the West by Russia and China, simply because it was perceived when the nation was granted entry to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

Kazakhstan

India’s stake: Kazakhstan stays India’s largest buying and selling associate in Central Asia and is vital to its plans for nearer connectivity with the area. While China’s Belt and Road Initiative has a robust presence within the Central Asian nation, there have additionally been home issues about its giant footprints. While Kazakhstan has at all times been a dependable ally for Russia, the Ukraine struggle has seen a shift because it has distanced itself from the Kremlin on key points like territorial integrity and non-recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk. Since the Ukraine struggle, Kazakhstan has deepened ties with China and even appeared past to strengthen relations with the European Union.

Kuwait

India’s stake: There has at all times been potential to enhance ties with Kuwait, however as consultants have observed, it has not stored tempo with India’s rising engagement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) international locations. There have additionally been sensitivities when Bahraini social media customers had flagged Islamophobic tweets by Indian residents within the Gulf. There additionally had been a diplomatic protest over the remarks of a BJP spokesperson associated to Prophet Mohammed. 

Nigeria

India’s stake: Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, was the seventh largest supply of oil for India globally and the highest vacation spot for crude from the African continent. In reality, Nigeria is India’s prime African commerce associate. During Manmohan Singh’s go to to Abuja in October 2007, India and Nigeria declared a “strategic partnership”. Nevertheless, identical to in different elements of Africa, China has an edge not simply over India however different Western international locations in complete affect. During the current presidential election earlier this 12 months, the opposition had accused the ruling celebration of utilizing Chinese expertise for surveillance.

Palestine

India’s stake: Although India has normally backed Palestine’s participation in multilateral platforms, it’s unsure whether or not Palestine will fulfil the financial necessities that could be set to draw larger economies or these with extra diplomatic affect. Traditionally, BRICS has supported Palestine within the battle with Israel nevertheless it has not been a serious participant. With China wading into the long-standing dispute flush from the success of its Iran-Saudi rapprochement, it can actually have extra leverage with the nascent quasi-state.

Saudi Arabia

India’s stake: With Saudi Arabia diversifying its diplomatic relationship away from the West, it joined the SCO as a dialogue associate. Therefore, its transfer to use for BRICS could be according to its present trajectory – and likewise give it entry to rising markets. India signed a strategic partnership in 2010 and created a strategic partnership council in 2019, which signifies the concentrated effort by New Delhi to woo the Gulf kingdom. It’s impossible that Saudi Arabia’s utility will face any objections – except it’s concerning the variety of international locations from a sure area.

Senegal

India’s stake: In 2021, Senegal hosted the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), which indicated the dedication of the West African state to ties with Beijing. India had additionally wooed Senegal, which held an AU presidency final 12 months, when the Indian Vice President visited Senegal and signed MoUs. But China’s affect is evident. Senegal was among the many eight African members that voted against a resolution that sought a debate on the remedy of Uyghurs within the UN human rights council final October.

Thailand

India’s stake: Both international locations view one another because the ‘gateway’ to their respective areas. While there have been political irritants, there are additionally challenges as a result of gradual progress of connectivity initiatives and customary issues about Myanmar. Bangkok walks a cautious balancing act between the US and China, taking a extra impartial place on coverage points. In February this 12 months, Thailand voted in favour of the UN General Assembly decision calling for an finish to the Ukraine struggle on the one-year anniversary of its inception. This was a change from its earlier abstention on another UNGA resolution on Ukraine final 12 months.

The UAE

India’s stake: After the Abu Dhabi Crown Prince visited India because the chief visitor for India’s Republic Day celebrations in 2017, India and the UAE upgraded their relationship to a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.” This stands as certainly one of India’s most strong partnerships within the area. In 2021, India participated in a quadrilateral assembly alongside the UAE, which has since advanced into the ‘i2u2’ grouping. Demonstrating a sensible international coverage, the UAE normalised relations with Israel by way of the Abraham Accords, whereas additionally doubling the commerce quantity with China in comparison with the US. India’s political variations with UAE, identical to with Saudi Arabia, is over the position of Iran and China – however that has not been a hindrance to increasing ties.

Venezuela

India’s stake: The Latin American state had been a serious supply of oil for India however imports have been drastically diminished after the US – beneath the Donald Trump administration – imposed unilateral sanctions on Venezuela. The nation’s vp Delcy Rodríguez was in India earlier this month when she claimed that “the largest reserve of the planet at the service of this important block (BRICS)”. Over the years, Venezuela has been diplomatically energetic at multilateral boards with its avowed anti-West place. 

While India doesn’t have any strategic partnership with Latin American candidates moreover Argentina, New Delhi may very nicely give the lead within the area to Brazil – which has extended support to Venezuela.

Vietnam

India’s stake: This is a straightforward determination for New Delhi since India and Vietnam signed a strategic partnership as early as 2007. This was elevated to a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’ in 2016. China’s affect in South East Asia – and its presence within the South China Sea – has lengthy been the prism for India’s long-term view of its relationship with Vietnam. While Vietnam has traditionally been cautious of China and seeks to take care of a steadiness with India, it’s vital to notice that its trade volume with Beijing is roughly 15 instances larger than its economic ties with New Delhi.