Two anti-submarine ships, the Admiral Tributs and Admiral Panteleyev of the Russian Pacific Fleet, took half within the train alongside a frigate and a corvette from Myanmar’s navy.

Days after the train, the identical Russian warships docked at Bangladesh’s Chittagong Port within the Bay of Bengal, marking a “huge milestone for Russia-Bangladesh relations”, in line with the Russian embassy in Dhaka.

China wants to deepen ‘everlasting’ good ties with Russia: Xi Jinping

Richard Rossow, senior adviser and chair in US-India coverage research on the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, mentioned such strikes indicated that Moscow needed to take care of the “perception” of being a worldwide energy.

“As it engages more deeply with China on regional issues, having a large global force presence will be important so Beijing sees Russia as a peer, rather than a fading power,” Rossow mentioned.

Yet observers say that whereas China could have maintained cordial relations, there’s a rising notion among the many Chinese management of a Russia that’s weakened.

As Yun Sun, China programme director on the Stimson Centre safety assume tank, wrote in an article printed by foreign-policy evaluation platform War on the Rocks final 12 months: “When China looks at Russia, it sees a nation torn between great-power ambitions and weak capabilities.”

“Russia will likely inject a nominal presence now and again just to prove it still has the ability to support distant military operations,” Rossow mentioned.

A possible problem?

While a “modest, occasional Russian presence” within the Indian Ocean mustn’t have a serious influence on the area’s safety steadiness, Rossow mentioned that an growth of Moscow’s joint workout routines with India might “irritate both American and Chinese defence officials”.

“The United States would like to see India further reduce cooperation with Russia, while China does not want to see India’s military power build up in any way,” Rossow mentioned.

Last month, Moscow held joint naval workout routines with Delhi within the Bay of Bengal to assist the 2 navies “jointly counter global threats and ensure the safety of civilian shipping in the Asia-Pacific region”, in line with Russia’s defence ministry.

Sankalp Gurjar, assistant professor of geopolitics and worldwide relations on the Manipal Academy of Higher Education, mentioned Russia’s rising presence within the Indian Ocean area places Delhi in a dilemma.

“Russia is a close strategic partner of India and therefore, under normal circumstances, India would not object to the expanding Russian presence,” he mentioned.

“However, Russia’s close ties with China and regular naval exercises in the Indian Ocean [including with Beijing] also opens up a possibility of greater Russia-China collaboration and could potentially present a challenge for India.”

Chirayu Thakkar, a doctoral candidate in worldwide relations on the National University of Singapore, mentioned Russia will “complicate the geopolitical scene” if it deepens its engagement and presence within the Indian Ocean area.

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As the main energy within the area, India sees the Indian Ocean as its conventional sphere of affect and has aspired to attain regional energy standing by, amongst different issues, offering safety to regional companions.

Just a decade in the past in 2013, Delhi reportedly pushed again towards a draft US- Maldives status-of-forces settlement because it opposed an elevated American presence tipping the regional steadiness of energy. But by 2020, it had modified its tune, welcoming a defence pact signed between the 2 as a test on China’s rising affect.

Have buddies, will journey

Moscow’s presence within the Indian Ocean can be geared toward demonstrating to the West that it isn’t “isolated” and is as an alternative welcomed by international locations within the underdeveloped and creating Global South, in line with geopolitics professor Gurjar.

After all, US sanctions on Myanmar and Washington’s human-rights criticisms of Bangladesh are a minimum of partly accountable for making Russia’s rising engagement with them potential, Gurjar mentioned.

Since Myanamr’s army coup in 2021, the US and different Western international locations have imposed sanctions on the regime, starting from an arms embargo to an export ban on dual-use items.

Moscow has additionally had its eyes on the western facet of the Indian Ocean, Gurjar mentioned, with plans within the works since 2019 to determine a naval base in Sudan on the Red Sea, by which marine visitors certain for Europe through the Suez Canal flows.

Moscow and Khartoum in February finalised an settlement on a base housing as much as 300 Russian troops and 4 ships – together with nuclear-powered ones – in strategic Port Sudan.

Progress on the bottom has reportedly been sophisticated by a 2021 coup in Sudan and the actions of Russian state-funded mercenary group The Wagner Group within the energy struggles that got here earlier than and afterwards.

Gurjar mentioned Russia was a part of a course of by which “the growing presence of extra-regional powers has been a feature of Indian Ocean geopolitics”.

China and India navies vie for influence in Indian Ocean amid border tensions

In 2008, Beijing started to deploy its navy for anti-piracy missions within the Gulf of Aden off the Indian Ocean, and in 2014 deployed submarines for the primary time to the area to assist its anti-piracy mission.