With lower than two weeks to go earlier than India’s election begins, Arvind Kejriwal, one of many nation’s most outstanding opposition leaders, would normally be out on the marketing campaign path. Instead, he is detained in a 14ft by 8ft cell in Delhi’s Tihar jail – mentioned to be spending his days sweeping, studying, doing yoga – and working Delhi’s authorities from behind bars.

Kejriwal, who has been the chief minister of Delhi since 2015, will not be the one chief from his opposition Aam Aadmi celebration (AAP) to be locked up in Tihar. Alongside him is his former deputy chief minister, Manish Sisodia,, who has been incarcerated for greater than a yr. The former well being minister, Satyendar Jain, has been there since May 2022.

On 2 April, one other AAP minister, Sanjay Singh, was lastly granted bail by the supreme court docket after spending six months behind bars.

AAP referred to as the arrests, which all relate to money-laundering fees, a political conspiracy and an open vendetta by the ruling Bharatiya Janata celebration (BJP) authorities to “crush” the celebration earlier than the election. Voting will start on 19 April, with the BJP and AAP going face to face for seats together with these in Delhi.

Atishi Singh, an AAP minister, mentioned: “The BJP hoped that AAP will disintegrate after Arvind Kejriwal is arrested because the entire senior leadership is behind bars.”

Pundits have predicted that the prime minister, Narendra Modi, will simply win a 3rd time period, and the BJP has set its sights on a fair better majority than in 2019. As the crackdown on the opposition has appeared to not too long ago ramp up, analysts and opponents have warned this might be essentially the most one-sided election in India’s historical past.

“The BJP has the upper hand, no doubt about it,” mentioned Dwaipayan Bhattacharyya, a professor of political science at Jawaharlal Nehru University. “It is leaving no stone unturned in using all the instruments, which are now under its control, to go after the opposition.”

Escalating assaults

In the identical week as Kejriwal’s arrest, Congress, India’s largest opposition celebration, claimed that the central tax authority had frozen tens of millions in its financial institution accounts, crippling its skill to marketing campaign. In a press convention, Congress leaders accused the BJP authorities of utilizing “tax terrorism” to disable the celebration earlier than the polls.

A money laundering investigation was also opened into opposition MP Mahua Moitra, who is likely one of the most outspoken critics of Modi. Kejriwal, Sisodia, Jain and Moitra have all denied the allegations towards them and mentioned they’re politically motivated.

While lots of of such circumstances have been filed towards opposition MPs and leaders for the reason that BJP got here to energy in 2014, the current escalation has provoked alarm about simply how free and truthful the election might be. Western nations, normally cautious about criticising India, have voiced concern, with the US envoy calling for a “fair, transparent” process for the arrested leaders.

The circumstances towards the opposition prompted Shahid Siddiqui, a veteran politician from Rashtriya Lok Dal – a political celebration that not too long ago joined the BJP alliance – to stop in protest final week, stating that he had “never seen anything like this in my four decades in politics”.

“I can’t stand silent while our democracy and democratic institutions are facing a dangerous attack and the opposition is being targeted,” mentioned Siddiqui. “It’s an extremely dangerous situation. If you can’t have free and fair elections, that means the country won’t have a functioning democracy.”

The BJP has denied any position within the arrests and circumstances, with Modi stating that the federal company conducting the investigations, the Enforcement Directorate (ED), is unbiased.

Syed Zafar Islam, a BJP nationwide spokesperson, referred to as the allegations “baseless” and careworn that the ED was “completely independent” and couldn’t deliver a case except it had enough proof to point out in court docket. “Whenever these parties are staring at defeat, they start talking about threats to democracy,” mentioned Islam.

The BJP will not be the primary authorities to make use of anti-crime companies to harangue political opponents. Former Congress-led regimes had been additionally seen to weaponise India’s Central Bureau of Investigation, with the BJP colloquially referring to it because the “Congress Bureau of Investigation”.

But opponents say the ED has turn out to be weaponised over the previous 10 years, with 95% of its political circumstances filed towards the opposition. In the case filed towards the AAP leaders, no hint has but been discovered of the alleged billions in kickbacks and bribes they’re accused of taking from alcohol licensing offers.

The ED declined to touch upon particular person circumstances.

Opposition infighting

Political observers say a few of the blame for the weak spot of India’s opposition will be laid at its personal doorstep. Congress – which dominated India for many years however is now in energy in solely three states – continues to be led by the Gandhi household dynasty, resulting in accusations it’s elitist, nepotistic and lacks correct management.

A coalition of 27 opposition events, together with Congress and AAP, united in 2023 under the acronym INDIA with the aim of collectively combating Modi within the election. However, celebration leaders have been accused of prioritising particular person pursuits, sluggish determination making and unresolved divisions over whether or not Congress needs to be on the helm.

Congress leaders nonetheless, insisted that the INDIA alliance remained united, with Gandhi stating this week that the bloc was collectively “fighting an ideological election”.

Political imbalance

Indian political scientist Rajeev Bhargava mentioned a giant problem within the political panorama was the shortage of independence in key establishments, from the media to the judiciary. Mainstream media are actually seen by many to be a mouthpiece for the federal government, whereas the independence of the police and the judiciary has repeatedly been referred to as into query.

“The fundamental weakness of the opposition stems from the failures of our institutions to maintain their integrity and instead completely surrender to the government in power,” mentioned Bhargava.

“Never before have agencies like the ED been used in such an unfettered political manner. There’s no longer a separation of powers, the executive controls everything, so there’s nothing the opposition can do to stop them.”

The opposition has additionally systematically been undermined by a stream of leaders crossing over to the BJP after being put underneath investigation by the ED or different companies. An investigation by the Indian Express discovered that since 2014, 25 outstanding politicians going through corruption circumstances had joined the BJP. In 23 of the circumstances, they received a reprieve after making the soar: a course of that Congress calls the “BJP washing machine”.

At a press convention, Atishi Singh, the Delhi AAP minister, accused the BJP of making an attempt this tactic on her, saying she had been warned to hitch the BJP or be arrested in the identical case that put Kejriwal behind bars. The BJP has denied the declare.

Bhargava mentioned that, given the wealth of the BJP in contrast with different events, there was “a powerful combination of fear and money” behind these defections. “If opposition leaders can’t turn to the police or the judiciary or other institutions, then there’s little to stop them being left to rot in jail. So today, most people are trying to save their own skin.”

Nonetheless, India’s opposition stays resilient in a number of states, significantly by way of highly effective regional events in east and south India, the place the BJP has didn’t take maintain.

Derek O’Brien, a parliamentary chief from India’s third-largest opposition celebration, Trinamool Congress, which governs West Bengal and is a part of the INDIA alliance, mentioned it had already filed “dozens of complaints” to the election fee.

“All we are calling for is a level playing field,” mentioned O’Brien.“This election will be the BJP versus democracy.”

Aakash Hassan contributed reporting