India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has lower a assured determine in current weeks. As his Bharatiya Janata celebration (BJP) swept three main state elections in December, Modi didn’t maintain again from predicting that “this hat-trick has guaranteed the 2024 victory”.

It was an indication that with lower than six months to go earlier than the final election, by which Modi might be in search of a 3rd time period in energy, marketing campaign season has begun with gusto.

In India’s present political panorama, the consensus amongst political analysts is {that a} win for Modi and the BJP is probably the most believable consequence.

The prime minister’s reputation as a political strongman, alongside the BJP’s Hindu nationalist agenda, continues to enchantment to the massive Hindu majority of the nation, notably within the populous Hindi belt of the north, ensuing within the widespread persecution of Muslims.

At state and nationwide degree, the equipment of the nation has been skewed closely in direction of the BJP since Modi was elected in 2014. He has been accused of overseeing an unprecedented consolidation of energy, muzzling essential media, eroding the independence of the judiciary and all types of parliamentary scrutiny and accountability and utilizing authorities businesses to pursue and jail political opponents.

While regional opposition to the BJP is powerful in pockets of south and east India, nationally it’s seen as fragmented and weak. The predominant opposition Indian National Congress celebration received the state election in Telangana this month however is in energy in solely three states general and is perceived as hierarchical and riddled with infighting.

The lately fashioned coalition of all main opposition events – which fits by the acronym INDIA – has but to unite on essential points, although it has vowed to battle the BJP collectively.

“The general sense is that a BJP win is almost an inevitability at this stage,” mentioned Neelanjan Sircar, a fellow on the Centre for Policy analysis. “The question is more: what factors will shape the scale of the victory?”

The BJP has begun a nationwide pre-election push. A roadshow, titled Viksit Bharat Sankalp Yatra, will see hundreds of presidency officers deployed to cities and villages throughout the nation over the subsequent two months, tasked with talking concerning the BJP’s successes over the previous 9 years – regardless of criticisms of politicising authorities forms and sources for campaigning functions.

The Ministry of Defence can also be organising 822 “selfie points” at struggle memorials, defence museums, railway stations and vacationer sights the place folks can take photographs of themselves with a Modi cutout.

The BJP’s current domination within the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh appeared to reaffirm the recognition of Modi. Though the prime minister has little to do with state elections, that are designed to elect native meeting members, the BJP strategically put Modi entrance and centre of their campaigns within the place of native leaders, the place he appeared at dozens of rallies to straight enchantment to voters and current himself because the embodiment of the celebration.

Modi’s messaging in these marketing campaign speeches mixed an emphasis on the BJP’s paternalistic welfare schemes – which give giant quantities of free meals and money handouts – with nationalistic and religiously communal rhetoric, providing a glimpse of how the BJP intends to battle the election on a nationwide scale.

Modi’s position in elevating India as a world energy – be that in worldwide politics or within the current its moon landing in August – it was the primary nation to efficiently land a spacecraft close to the lunar south pole – was additionally distinguished.

Asim Ali, a political scientist, mentioned the current state election campaigns within the north had been “some of the most religiously polarising I have seen” because the BJP performed closely on Hindutva (Hindu nationalist) sentiments to win the bulk vote.

In Rajasthan, Modi repeatedly evoked an incident the place a Hindu tailor was murdered by extremist Muslims to say that the opposition Congress celebration, which dominated the state, was “sympathetic to terrorists” and that it was their appeasement of Muslims that had led to the killing.

The BJP’s candidates included 4 Hindu monks, some with very hardline views, however no Muslims. In the tribal dominated state of Chhattisgarh, the BJP performed on fears of compelled conversions of tribal folks away from Hinduism.

Modi was delivered to energy in 2014 largely on the again of an anti-incumbency wave whereas his re-election victory in 2019 was all however secured after India carried out airstrikes on Pakistan, after a terrorist incident a couple of months earlier than the polls, leading to a storm of nationwide safety sentiment in his favour.

However, whether or not the BJP will win the identical form of sweeping parliamentary majority it secured in 2019 is unclear. Its place in sure essential states, akin to Bihar and Maharashtra, is unsure and the celebration’s weak point on financial issues, notably jobs and inflation, may additionally have an effect on voting.

Ali was amongst those that feared a Hindu-Muslim divide could be stirred up additional to change into “the dominant issue, at least in the Hindi heartland”.

“Hindu-Muslim communalisation has become completely normalised, not just through political campaigning but by the television news channels and the messages people see on social media and WhatsApp,” mentioned Ali. “It can be activated by the BJP at their grassroots at any time. Just one or two slogans from Modi and other senior BJP leaders, a few coded communal dogwhistles, and people get the message.”

Indeed, one of many greatest points more likely to dominate the BJP’s agenda pre-election is the long-awaited opening of the Ram Mandir, a grand Hindu temple that has been constructed within the place of a demolished mosque. Construction of the constructing, within the north Indian city of Ayodhya, has lengthy been a focus of the Hindu nationalist motion in India, and the fanfare round Modi’s inauguration of the temple in January is predicted to be a nationwide occasion.

Baijayant Panda, nationwide vice chairman of the BJP, mentioned the celebration was very assured concerning the parliamentary elections. He credited the arrogance partially to “the Modi premium”, which meant the BJP tended to carry out higher in nationwide than state elections due to the “stratospheric popularity” of the prime minister.

“On the ground, there’s a huge surge of optimism, even in areas which we haven’t traditionally won,” mentioned Panda. “Having had this kind of victory in the state elections completely cements our position.”

Exactly what a 3rd time period for Modi would imply for India, notably if it was one other outright majority, was a trigger for concern amongst some analysts and human rights teams. While Panda mentioned it will be outlined by financial success, and India changing into the world’s third largest financial system, others feared a continued erosion of democracy and the rights of the Muslim minority, who exceed 200 million.

Ashutosh Varshney, the director of the Center for Contemporary South Asia at Brown University within the US, mentioned he anticipated the rights of Muslims to proceed to come back below assault.

He warned {that a} scenario much like the Jim Crow legal guidelines, which existed in southern American states within the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries and disenfranchised black folks on the premise of race, may change into a actuality in India below a 3rd Modi time period.

“If Modi comes back to power we can imagine a scenario of a Jim Crow-style Hindu nationalist order in BJP-ruled states,” mentioned Varshney. “It will establish Hindu supremacy, deprive Muslims of equality and create a secondary citizenship for Muslims, which will likely eventually remove their right to vote.”

Panda pushed again towards allegations of BJP communalism. “I dare anyone to point out where a minority, whether a Muslim or a Christian or Buddhist or a Sikh has been discriminated against in the governance of India, you will not find a single example,” he mentioned.