The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs will square off for the 15th time on Sunday Night Football. The Week 4 tilt is a rematch of Super Bowl LV, with the Buccaneers winning by a 31-9 margin. The game is also the sixth all-time meeting between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes, with Brady leading that matchup 3-2. Both teams are 2-1 to begin the season, though each is coming off a disappointing Week 3 loss amid offensive scuffles.

Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET. Tampa Bay is favored by two-points in the latest Chiefs vs. Buccaneers odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 47. Before you make any Buccaneers vs. Chiefs picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 139-103 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Buccaneers and just locked in its picks and Sunday Night Football predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers:

• Chiefs vs. Buccaneers spread: Buccaneers -2
• Chiefs vs. Buccaneers over/under: 47 points 
• Chiefs vs. Buccaneers money line: Chiefs +115, Buccaneers -135 
• KC: The Chiefs are 11-12 against the spread in their last 23 games 
• TB: The Buccaneers are 12-10 against the spread in their last 22 games 
• Chiefs vs. Buccaneers picks: See picks here

Featured Game | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City has one of the best players in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes at the most important position on the field. Mahomes, a former MVP and four-time Pro Bowl selection, has 857 passing yards, eight touchdown passes and only one interception this season. He ranks in the top eight of the league in completion rate (67.9%) and net yards per pass attempt (7.6), with elite marks elsewhere. Mahomes is No. 4 in the league with a 76.2 QBR and No. 3 in the league with a 112.1 passer rating, with a 14-2 mark in the last 16 games against NFC teams. 

With Mahomes on the field, the Chiefs are on a 12-game winning streak against NFC foes, and he is averaging 311.4 passing yards with 42 touchdowns in 16 games against the opposing conference. Mahomes is also backed by an uber-elite pass catcher in Travis Kelce, and the seven-time Pro Bowler has a receiving touchdown in five straight road games. Kelce is No. 6 in the history of the NFL in receiving yards by a tight end (9,286), and he has 30 career 100-yard receiving games, third-most by a tight end in league history.

Why the Buccaneers can cover

Tampa Bay is 8-1 in the last nine games against AFC opponents, and the infrastructure is incredibly sound. Though the Buccaneers are struggling on offense this season, Tom Brady is a three-time MVP and seven-time champion that led the NFL in completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns in 2021. Brady has only one interception this season, and he will benefit from the return of standout wide receiver Mike Evans after a one-game suspension. 

The Buccaneers are also incredibly strong on defense, leading the NFL in points allowed per game (9.0), points allowed per drive (0.75), turnovers created (eight), turnover rate (22.2%), and rushing touchdowns allowed (zero). Tampa Bay is also in the top five of the league in total defense and yards allowed per drive, with opponents generating only 44 first downs in three games against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay’s third defense is top-tier, allowing opponents to convert on only 30.6% of chances, and the Buccaneers will be facing a scuffling Chiefs rushing offense that is averaging only 4.1 yards per carry and less than 100 rushing yards per game.

How to make Chiefs vs. Buccaneers picks on SNF

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total, with the model calling for 48 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see the SNF picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Buccaneers vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Buccaneers vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model on a 139-103 roll on NFL picks, and find out.