Chinese President Xi Jinping, proper, and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake arms throughout an awarding ceremony on the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on June 8, 2018. Xi is touring to Moscow to point out assist for Putin.

Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP

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Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP

Chinese President Xi Jinping, proper, and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake arms throughout an awarding ceremony on the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on June 8, 2018. Xi is touring to Moscow to point out assist for Putin.

Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP

China’s chief Xi Jinping lands in Moscow on Monday to point out assist for Russian chief Vladimir Putin and probe potential steps towards peace in Ukraine.

After the three-day go to to Russia, Xi is predicted to have talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The dialog could be the primary for the reason that begin of the struggle. Analysts say the probability of an enormous breakthrough on Ukraine is slim as a result of Russian and Ukrainian negotiating positions stay to date aside.

For Xi, who this month locked up a rare third term as China’s president, the Russia journey presents an opportunity to strengthen relations with a key neighbor and partner-of-convenience. At the identical time, the journey might assist burnish China’s credentials as a world heavyweight.

“He can cast his visit to Moscow in the context of some grand international diplomacy, [yet] he doesn’t actually have to achieve much to accomplish this goal,” mentioned Paul Haenle, a China knowledgeable on the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former director on the National Security Council below presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama.

On the eve of the Ukraine invasion a 12 months in the past, Russia and China declared a “no limits” friendship. And whereas many imagine China’s management was caught off guard by the full-scale invasion of Ukraine that adopted, Beijing has refused to sentence the transfer, as an alternative trumpeting the energy of Beijing-Moscow ties.

Xi says the connection has grown “more mature and resilient”

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping pose for {a photograph} throughout their assembly in Beijing, on Feb. 4, 2022.

Alexei Druzhinin/Sputnik/AFP through Getty Images

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Alexei Druzhinin/Sputnik/AFP through Getty Images

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping pose for {a photograph} throughout their assembly in Beijing, on Feb. 4, 2022.

Alexei Druzhinin/Sputnik/AFP through Getty Images

Ahead of his go to to Moscow, Xi wrote in the state-owned Russian Gazette newspaper that the 2 nations have “cemented political mutual trust and fostered a new model of major-country relations.”

“The bilateral relationship has grown more mature and resilient,” Xi declared. On the Ukraine disaster, Xi urged all events to “embrace the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, and pursue equal-footed, rational and results-oriented dialogue and consultation.”

China’s steadfast assist of Moscow all through the struggle has dented its picture in western Europe, the place Beijing is eager to forge deeper relations.

Rana Mitter, a professor of Chinese historical past and politics on the University of Oxford, says China might hope the Moscow journey will assist persuade some in Europe “to take a more America-skeptic position on questions of security and economic cooperation.”

“If the case is that [China] actually can talk to Putin and try and mediate some of the difficulties with Russia that those of you in Western Europe simply cannot,” he mentioned, “that’s a proposition that at least some leaders in the region might listen to.”

For its half, Beijing seems eager to foster the picture of peacemaker.

Earlier this month, China helped finalize a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran on re-establishing diplomatic relations. The Chinese authorities in February printed a 12-point “position paper” laying out broad rules for resolving the Ukraine battle. And on Friday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin mentioned China would “play a constructive role in urging peace and promoting talks.”

“The mood has been set. The framework has been set. The idea of China potentially as the peacemaker that goes where other countries can’t has been set. But the actual solution still looks in some ways much, much more vague, much more fluid,” mentioned Mitter.

The Chinese will not be actually aiming to be “the real problem solver here,” in response to Yun Sun, a senior fellow on the Stimson Center in Washington, D.C.

She mentioned, with Xi visiting Moscow, “they know that there will be these critical questions on China, about what China plans to do on the war in Ukraine. I think that political position [paper] and the framing of China as a peace broker is to serve that political purpose.”

China’s previous mediations confirmed its limits

China’s function as a mediator previously suggests limits to what it might obtain in terms of Ukraine.

“Even in the Iran-Saudi deal, China was not a peace broker. I think China exploited an opportunity that ripened,” Sun mentioned. “Those two countries actually wanted to improve their relations, but I don’t think that condition exists between Russia and Ukraine — at least not now and at least not for the foreseeable future.”

Haenle, of the Carnegie Endowment, says in the course of the Six Party Talks on North Korea’s nuclear program, through which he took half, Beijing excelled at bringing negotiators to the desk. But he says Chinese officers hardly ever pressed any of the events to maneuver the ball down the sector.

“We always had the sense that the United States, South Korea, Japan, we were really aggressively trying to find a way to solve the North Korean nuclear issue, where the Chinese were really looking for a process to manage the North Korean nuclear issue,” he mentioned.

“Whether they’ll play an active role in ending the Ukraine conflict, I think, is probably something that we will not see here in the near term,” Haenle mentioned.

Instead, the main focus of Xi’s Moscow journey will likely be on strengthening China-Russia relations. And for Xi, meaning it can almost certainly be a win, says Suisheng Zhao, a professor on the University of Denver.

China frames its international relations inside the context of its superpower rivalry with the United States. Xi’s journey to Russia isn’t any exception.

“The benefits will definitely weigh over the costs,” Zhao mentioned. “His most fundamental foreign policy objective now is [to] try to defend China’s interests against American confrontation.”