Global CO2 emissions are set to rebound to pre-pandemic levels next year, according to an assessment published on Thursday as countries signed up to fossil-fuel cutting pledges criticised as too vague by campaigners.

The grim emissions assessment was billed as a “reality check” for nations gathered at the COP26 summit in Glasgow, seen as a last chance to halt catastrophic climate crisis.

Moderate progress this week was checked by the release of the Global Carbon Project’s annual report, which showed that emissions from gas and coal will rise in 2021 by more than they dropped during the pandemic.

It suggested CO2 emissions could eclipse the 40-billion-tonne record set in 2019, which some have predicted – and many hoped – would be a peak.

China alone will account for 31% of global emissions this year as it seeks to power its economy past Covid-19, the report said.

“This report is a reality check,” co-author Corinne Le Quere, a professor of climate change science at Britain’s University of East Anglia, told AFP.

“It shows what’s happening in the real world while we are here in Glasgow talking about tackling climate change.”

The report came as two pledges from nations and finance institutions opened a path to accelerated movement away from dirty energy.

Twenty countries, including major funders the US and Canada, vowed to “end new direct public support for the international unabated fossil fuel energy sector by the end of 2022”.

Unabated fossil fuel projects are those that do not deploy technology to absorb the carbon pollution they produce.

China, South Korea and Japan – all major overseas fossil fuel funders – did not sign on, even though these countries have separately made similar pledges.

While ending international funding is seen as a boost to the COP26 summit and key to keeping the Paris Agreement goal of limiting temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared with pre-industrial levels, even more crucial is quickly drawing down domestic use of coal, by far the dirtiest fossil fuel.

Host Britain announced that more than 40 countries had signed up to a commitment to phase out coal use within their borders within decades.

Among the signatories were South Korea, Indonesia and Poland – all among the top 10 globally in terms of coal-fired power capacity. COP26 organisers say that 23 countries had promised for the first time to end their coal use, though several of these nations, including Poland, do in fact have pre-standing phase-out commitments.

Smog engulfs Beijing

Highways and school playgrounds in Beijing were closed on Friday due to heavy pollution, as China ramps up coal production and faces scrutiny of its environmental record at make-or-break international climate talks.

A thick haze of smog blanketed swathes of northern China on Friday, with visibility in some areas reduced to less than 200 metres (yards), according to the country’s weather forecaster.

Schools in the capital – which will host the Winter Olympics in February – were ordered to stop physical education classes and outdoor activities.

Stretches of highways to major cities including Shanghai, Tianjin and Harbin were closed due to poor visibility.

Pollutants detected by a monitoring station at the US embassy in Beijing reached levels defined as “very unhealthy” for the general population.

Thunberg brands UN climate summit ‘a failure’

Swedish campaigner Greta Thunberg on Friday branded the UN climate summit in Glasgow a “failure” after a week of negotiations produced what some experts have called vague promises to cut emissions.

“It is not a secret that COP26 is a failure,” Thunberg told thousands of youth protesters at a march in the Scottish city.

She called the COP26 talks “a two-week long celebration of business as usual and ‘blah, blah, blah’”. “This is no longer a climate conference. This is now a global greenwashing festival,” Thunberg told cheering crowds.