Joe Gibbs Racing drivers maintain three of the top-four positions in the point standings coming into Pocono. With 11 of the 19 drivers who received final 12 months nonetheless winless — and 5 of these drivers having earlier Pocono wins — count on fierce competitors. But can any quantity of want overcome JGR drivers’ excellence at this distinctive Pennsylvania monitor?

Why this triangle is so tough

Pocono approximates a scalene triangle, which means that every one three sides are completely different lengths. That in flip requires all three turns to have flip radii.

There’s an extra complication, nonetheless. Each nook has a distinct quantity of banking.

• Turn 1, modeled after Trenton Speedway, has 14 levels of banking, however the smallest flip radius at 675 ft.
• Turn 2 has eight levels of banking, similar to the Indianapolis oval. Its flip radius of about 750 ft is akin to Atlanta Motor Speedway.
• Turn 3 is modeled after the Milwaukee Mile. It has solely six levels of banking however the largest flip radius at 800 ft.

The variations in monitor geometry and topography make it inconceivable for a crew chief to optimize a race automobile for all three turns.

The triangular configuration and a couple of.5-mile size create lengthy straights. Pocono’s fundamental straightaway is 3,740 ft, simply 60 ft shorter than Daytona’s frontstretch — and 100 ft longer than the complete Martinsville monitor.

Prioritizing previous winners

Of the 19 wins by Cup Series drivers operating this Sunday, Joe Gibbs Racing drivers earned 13 — 68.4% — of them.

Denny Hamlin leads in absolute variety of wins (six), in addition to highest win fee amongst 2023 full-time drivers (18.2%).

• All 4 of Kyle Busch’s Pocono wins got here whereas driving for JGR. Busch has the second-highest win fee on the monitor: 11.4%.
• Martin Truex Jr. has received twice at Pocono in 33 begins, giving him a win fee of 6.1%.
• Joey Logano’s sole Pocono win got here in 2012 beneath the JGR banner.

Chris Buescher, Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick every have one Pocono win.

The metric matrix

The Metric Matrix beneath exhibits the highest drivers in my calculations for Pocono Raceway. NG signifies that the calculation contains solely Next Gen automobile races. The top-10 fee, top-five fee and win fee are profession averages. On the graph, the darker the purple, the higher.

Hamlin and Busch were disqualified from last year’s Pocono race, which erased their first- and second-place finishes. I manually elevated their rating within the first class to present them some credit score for operating nicely. That places Denny Hamlin, who begins eighth, within the highest place on the metric matrix.

Kyle Busch posted the second-fastest lap time in apply however certified in twenty fifth place. Last 12 months, nonetheless, Michael McDowell began twenty fifth and completed sixth.

Three of the 4 JGR drivers seem within the matrix. Any one in every of them is an effective guess. If you’re searching for longer odds, teammate Christopher Bell certified fifth. Bell completed fourth at Pocono final 12 months, however he’s acquired solely two top-10 finishes there in 5 races.

Harvick and Keselowski drive the one two Fords to make the matrix. Both have received at Pocono. Harvick ran largely within the top-10 final 12 months, however completed twenty seventh after being caught up in an accident. Harvick additionally had the Eighth-best 10-consecutive-lap common.

All 4 Hendrick Motorsports drivers seem within the matrix, however they break up the identical means they’ve break up all season. Byron took the pole and Larson certified third whereas Bowman begins twentieth and Elliott thirty fifth. Elliott spun throughout his qualifying lap.

Honorable mentions

Daniel Suárez finished third at Pocono final 12 months however has a profession common end of 15.0 and solely 4 top-10 finishes in 11 races.

Tyler Reddick may very well be a shock high-finisher given his robust apply and qualifying. His stats aren’t stupendous, however that is his first race at Pocono with Toyota and 23XI Racing.

Bubba Wallace completed eighth at Pocono in 2022. He additionally completed second at Michigan final 12 months, and Michigan is an effective comparaison monitor for Pocono. Wallace’s profession common end at Pocono is 20.0.

Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano each ran nicely at Michigan final 12 months. however Blaney crashed and Logano completed twentieth at Pocono. The Fords confirmed themselves able to velocity in qualifying. They have been quick in qualifying at New Hampshire final week and ended up taking three of the top-five ending positions.