CHICO — Pandemic impacts to restaurants, bars and rental housing in college towns are pretty obvious, but there may be more impact when looking at sports programs,  according to economist Robert Eyler, who shared some below-the-surface observations during this month’s webinar.

Sports is an area that Eyler has delved into, but more with generalities than dollar specifics, in part because the school year at California universities and colleges is just getting started.

Not only may the online education format keep students from those university towns, impacting restaurant, retail and rental property revenue, but the suspension of sports at both college and high school levels could mean addition financial impact.

As sports programs and ensuing scholarships draw in certain athletic-focused students, not having those programs could produce enrollment gaps, Eyler suggested.

Potential college students might delay enrolling until those sports programs and the financial support are reinstated. Certainly a factor is how much ticket revenue those sports bring in.

Another factor, although not necessarily sports oriented, is that high school graduates or college-age students might be forced to delay enrolling in higher education because they can’t afford college or have to work to help their families who may be struggling with job losses.

“How many students decide not to start a collegiate plan this year could impact the workforce of the future. If there is a middle-skills gap or bachelor degrees (shortage) this could exacerbate that,” Eyler said during his Monday webinar.

Some improvement

Feeding the economic recovery, Eyler pointed out, are employers who are feeling more confident about the future and consequently hiring more workers. Those factors help stabilize the labor and housing markets, he noted.

Number crunchers can take some joy from July employment numbers that came out last week, but Eyler said there’s a long, slow road ahead. And what August’s numbers could show could bring disappointment.

Butte County’s unemployment numbers from July, released by the state Friday, showed fewer people on unemployment, but also fewer jobs.

Butte County’s unemployment rate for July stood at 11.1% , down from 12.2% in June. There were more than 10,400 residents without work.

Eyler didn’t focus on Butte County during Monday’s monthly analysis webinar, but there were many parallel indicators that showed a “less dim” picture.

An economics professor at Sonoma State University with an economic forecast firm, Eyler has been watching economic factors since the California shut down under coronavirus.

“Good things are happening,” Eyler said Monday, picking and choosing places to point out, such as what’s happening with housing.

But there are other indicators that may paint the bigger picture of pandemic impact, such as permanent job loss and impact to college towns.

National forecasters

Eyler watches the forecasts coming out of Federal Reserve forecaster lists. There may be a “big bounce” in the third quarter, but Eyler says forecasters are predicting a slow down in the fourth quarter.

A sprinkling of Eyler observations:

Employment: Some industries are getting more on track. Expect to see continuing growth in health care, construction, STEM-jobs and manufacturing. Industries not seeing a return of employees may turn to automation to replace humans in some kinds of work.

Low income jobs: Permanent damage from the pandemic shut down may be done to low-wage jobs and services, such as restaurants, hotels, hair and nail salons and more. Those jobs may not ever come back, with workers forced to seek education to gain other skills or shifting into jobs with similar skills.

Housing: Fearing the housing disaster of the Great Recession, economists like Eyler are watching the path of housing, looking at listing prices and inventory. He cites Zillow’s expectation that California through at least July 2021 won’t see a huge contraction in housing prices.

“People are staying put. Either there’s no place to go or no place to migrate to where things are better.”

However, Eyler points to the disruptive nature of the wildfires, saying they could be the deciding factor in relocations.

Government: No rosy times are predicted for governments trying to figure out their budgets based on income tax or property tax.

“Governments are planning big downturns in their budgets for 2020-21 and 2021-22. It’ll be 2023 before state and local budgets feel positive.”

Once again housing is the foundation for the positive outlook, looking at the future for construction and property tax revenue.

Future

“The data is actually very good. It suggests that after this year is over, there may be a more normal recovery rather than the violent moves of 2020,” pointing to dramatic spikes on job and growth graphs.

Overall, expect very slow economic recovery, Eyler warned.

Butte County

Butte County’s labor force has declined, according to state Employment Development Department figures.

In July 2019, Butte’s labor force was 97,800, and preliminary July figures showed 93,200. The 4.7 percent decline could be applicable to retirements, relocations, or job loss, among other factors.

The numbers also showed some “reopening” of businesses. Data showed employment growth in leisure and hospitality, reflecting food businesses, and in manufacturing but with dips in construction, and state and local government employment.

Glenn County’s unemployment was 10.8% in July, down from 12.9 % in June. More than 1,290 residents were without jobs in July.

In Tehama County, July unemployment was 11%, down from 11.8%. More than 2,650 residents were jobless and collecting benefits.

California’s unemployment for July was 13.7 percent, down from 15.1%

Webinar repeat

Eyler’s latest webinar was videotaped  and is available free on host Chabin Concepts website www.chabinconcepts.com Another webinar is planned in September but a date has not been announced.