With comprehensive defeats in their first two matches of the T20 World Cup, Team India finds itself on the exit door of the T20 World Cup as their chances of qualifying for the semi-final of the tournament hang by a thread. If they are to get knocked out, it will be the first time in eight years and eight ICC tournaments that India will fail to reach the final four.

However, it is not the end of the road for Virat Kohli’s India just yet. The chances are slim and appear bleak, but as of now, they exist nonetheless. Besides needing to win all their remaining three matches – against Afghanistan, Scotland and Namibia, India progressing to the semi-final would depend on the outcome of other games as well – most notably the New Zealand vs Afghanistan match on November 7.

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With three wins and six points, Pakistan are at the top of the table and look comfortably placed to sail through to the knockouts. Remember, the format of the Super 12 is such that only the top two teams from each group will be eligible to progress to the knockouts, while the remaining four will head back. As of this moment, winless India are placed fifth in their Group 2, just a rung above Scotland. Yes, even Namibia are ahead of India having won a game.

So how can India beat all odds to miraculously make the knockouts? Well, the road ahead is a tough one. Besides beating Scotland, Namibia and Afghanistan by big margins, India would hope for one of these three teams to upset New Zealand, of which Afghanistan look the most likely candidate. They came close to beating Pakistan and India would hope they could pull off a win against the team that has haunted them in ICC events since 2007.

Let us imagine that Pakistan beat Scotland and Namibia comprehensively and New Zealand get past them and Afghanistan. In that case, Pakistan and New Zealand will qualify and India will take the flight back to Mumbai. However, if Afghanistan can manage to beat New Zealand, and India win all their remaining matches, the finalists of the inaugural World Test Championship will be tied at 6 points each.

In that case, the net run rate will come into the equation and the team with a better NRR will advance. Why, you ask? Because India’s loss to Pakistan by 10 wickets with 10 balls to spare and defeat to New Zealand by 8 wickets inside 15 overs has dented their NRR heavily as it currently stands at -1.609.

Having said that, all such complexity will end if India lose to Afghanistan as a third straight defeat will end their campaign then and there itself. Rest assured, the road ahead looks extremely difficult for India and it would take a herculean effort of India are to seal a place in the final four.