On December 6, prime safety officers from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan arrived in New Delhi for the primary India-Central Asia meeting of nationwide safety advisors. Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval highlighted the India-Central Asia relationship, emphasizing their widespread shared pursuits, akin to stabilizing the safety state of affairs in Afghanistan and reinforcing territorial integrity. 

The assembly got here 10 months after the first-ever India-Central Asia summit, which reignited the momentum to develop a burgeoning India-Central Asia relationship.

In January 2022, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi presided over the India-Central Asia Summit with all 5 Central Asian heads of state current. The digital assembly demonstrated India’s dedication to its “Extended Neighborhood Policy,” which requires New Delhi to diversify its geopolitical companions and diplomatic targets, and its willingness to have interaction its Central Asian companions on a large number of fronts.

Despite the receptiveness of the Central Asian governments, for the reason that summit crises like Russia’s struggle in Ukraine, world inflation, meals insecurity, and strategic considerations have overshadowed India’s ambitions to bridge the geopolitical divide with Central Asia. As evidenced by the current NSA assembly between India and the Central Asian states, safety stays the point of interest of Indian-Central Asian relations, however India should forge hyperlinks with this dynamic area through transit, commerce, funding, and people-to-people connections with a view to cement New Delhi as a dependable and long-lasting accomplice in Central Asia amid geopolitical challenges.

India-Central Asia Relations: A Security Focus

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Countering violent extremism has lengthy been the point of interest of India-Central Asia relations. In 1995, Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon assessed that Dushanbe and New Delhi would wish to coordinate to defend their establishments from malign terrorist teams. Since then, the bilateral relationship has been characterised by joint counterterrorism initiatives, just like the Tajikistan-India Joint Working Group on Counter-Terrorism.

Furthermore, India has tried to spice up its safety presence within the area by renovating army bases in Tajikistan. During the times of the Northern Alliance, India operated a army hospital in Tajikistan’s Farkhor district to service opposition fighters towards the Taliban. It was closed after the Northern Alliance was disbanded however rumors circulated – though with out proof – that India maintained an air force presence at Farkhor. India did spend about $70 million to renovate the Ayni Air Base in Tajikistan between 2002 and 2010. There aren’t any stories that India has stationed plane on the base, and specialists point out that it stays unused. If operational, the airbases would provide India a strategic advantage towards its two adversaries: China and Pakistan. Tajikistan is situated near the Wakhan Corridor, which connects Afghanistan and China, in addition to Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

India joined the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) – which incorporates Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan – as a full member in 2017. The grouping offers New Delhi with a discussion board to determine safety relationships with Astana, Bishkek, and Tashkent, including on to sturdy ties with Dushanbe. For instance, India hosted the joint anti-terror exercise below the SCO’s Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Russia taking part. The joint train affirms the India-Central Asia safety partnership and contributes to India forging complete partnerships throughout Central Asia.

Geopolitical Pressures Reshape Relations

Shifting perceptions of crucial safety threats are impacting the India-Central Asia relationship. While the SCO goals to deal with regional safety considerations, its enlargement to incorporate India, Pakistan, and most just lately Iran, has considerably reframed the safety discussions inside the group. At the newest summit for the security-focused group, India famous trade cooperation amid pandemic-related provide chain disruptions and rising prices of power and meals imports as crucial areas of concern. 

India will assume the rotating presidency of the group and host the 2023 summit. Its place as SCO president may grant New Delhi the leverage to form subsequent 12 months’s agenda to prioritize interregional connectivity and shared financial points.

Modi has beforehand advocated for bolstering connectivity with Central Asia. Modi met with Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev on the sidelines of the 22nd SCO summit held in Samarkand in September to emphasise the broadening of their international locations’ bilateral relationship. 

Russia’s struggle in Ukraine and the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan have uncovered the geopolitical vulnerabilities of the landlocked Central Asian states. India ought to take the chance to strengthen itself as a constant accomplice to Central Asia. Joint counterterrorism efforts permit New Delhi to flex its safety capabilities within the area and monitor its adversaries from a more in-depth vary. However, with out resolute coordination on different points to complement the safety side, the India-Central Asia relationship is prone to geopolitical, financial, and home stress.

Moving Forward

This 12 months’s slew of geopolitical crises positioned immense stress on current bilateral relationships and examined the resiliency of collaboration via multilateral engagements. Both India and the Central Asian states search further companions past their conventional allies to counter this geopolitical stress and increase their reaches previous their instant neighborhood. India and the Central Asian states would profit from a burgeoning relationship supported by initiatives throughout a number of sectors.

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Security considerations stay the crux of the India-Tajikistan bilateral relationship. Growing this rapport to incorporate different Central Asian international locations would display New Delhi’s readiness to encapsulate all the area in its overseas coverage agenda. The United States usually interfaces with the Central Asian international locations via its C5+1 multilateral format. Similarly, Japan launched the “Central Asia plus Japan” dialogue in 2004 to strengthen its diplomatic and financial cooperation with the area. Creating an identical multilateral format – constructing on the 2022 summit – would give India a greater launching level for additional engagements with its Central Asian companions.

On the financial entrance, India ought to promote itself as an entrepreneurial hub to its Central Asian counterparts. India boasts greater than 38,000 formally acknowledged start-ups and has risen to develop into the third-largest supply of tech start-ups globally. New Delhi may use its place as a expertise hub to community its nascent tech entrepreneurial sector with that of Central Asian international locations. In November, India hosted the UNESCO India-Africa Hackathon, which convened like-minded people from India and the African continent to make use of pc programming to resolve social points. Similarly, college students from 10 Southeast Asian international locations participated alongside Indians on the ASEAN-India Hackathon, held final in 2021. Central Asian international locations have instituted a number of initiatives, just like the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Digital Strategy 2030 to scale digital expertise and improve digital literacy throughout the area. India’s tech sectors can present assist and experience to assist Central Asian international locations.

Although enhancing connectivity between India and the Central Asian states is a objective for New Delhi and Central Asia, an opposed Pakistan and Taliban-ruled Afghanistan prohibit ambitions. Instead, India can promote the institution of air corridors with Central Asian states to facilitate the motion of individuals and items between the subcontinent and Central Asia. This technique would improve the amount of commerce and endorse people-to-people relationships. Air Astana resumed direct flights between Almaty and New Delhi in December 2021. Likewise, Tajikistan resumed flight service between Dushanbe and New Delhi in April after a hiatus as a result of pandemic.

Improved connectivity would additionally streamline the method for 1000’s of Central Asians searching for medical treatment in India. At the India-Central Asia Business Forum, Indian Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar talked about the significance of medical tourism and the necessity to increase it. Not solely would simplifying the medical tourism course of encourage higher connectivity between India and Central Asia, however it might additionally additional medical data exchanges and coaching. For occasion, Uzbekistan supplied 2,000 Indian medical students spots in Uzbek universities after the scholars have been compelled to evacuate Ukraine as a result of Russian invasion.

Security is the inspiration of India’s relationships with Central Asian international locations, and it continues to be probably the most compelling consider bridging New Delhi with the area. Nevertheless, India and the Central Asian states should diversify their relationships to incorporate different sectors and technique of cooperation to bolster the relationships’ resiliencies and forge multi-pronged partnerships shifting ahead.