Hurricane Lee shaped a well-defined eye wall on Thursday. The storm is seen right here in a satellite tv for pc picture from round midday ET Thursday, exhibiting the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to the west.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

cover caption

toggle caption

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

Hurricane Lee shaped a well-defined eye wall on Thursday. The storm is seen right here in a satellite tv for pc picture from round midday ET Thursday, exhibiting the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to the west.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

Hurricane Lee is exceeding expectations because it turns into the fearsome storm it was predicted to be, present process “rapid intensification” because it strikes throughout the Atlantic Ocean, forecasters mentioned on Thursday. The hurricane’s most winds are actually predicted to high 160 mph by this weekend.

Lee at the moment has most sustained winds of 105 mph and is over open water, following a west-northwest path that can probably see its middle move north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, the National Hurricane Center mentioned in its latest advisory.

Lee is predicted to grow to be a serious hurricane on Thursday — a designation for Category 3 storms and above. That means its sustained winds would roar at 111 mph on the identical day that it developed a well-defined eye.

Lee is forecast to accentuate at ‘outstanding charges’

The hurricane middle has repeatedly warned that Lee may grow to be very highly effective in an exceptionally quick time. That steering has now grow to be much more dire, because the NHC mentioned many forecasting instruments “are calling for remarkable rates of intensification, beyond rates normally seen with model forecasts.”

The fundamental query proper now, the NHC says, is “how strong Lee will get, and how quickly will it get there.”

If Lee’s sustained winds surpass 160 mph as anticipated, that might make it a Category 5 storm (the edge is 157 mph).

Hurricane Lee is forecast to be a serious hurricane by the point its core passes north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the subsequent a number of days.

National Hurricane Center

cover caption

toggle caption

National Hurricane Center

Hurricane Lee is forecast to be a serious hurricane by the point its core passes north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the subsequent a number of days.

National Hurricane Center

The hurricane middle’s forecast track at the moment predicts that Lee will churn north-northwest, reaching some extent effectively north of Puerto Rico by Tuesday morning. So far, the storm is not posing a right away menace to anybody on land. But specialists advise retaining an in depth eye on the storm.

“The potential for tropical storm conditions to occur in [the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico] is decreasing, but residents there should continue to monitor updates on Lee,” the NHC mentioned.

All eyes are on the storm’s path

It’s too early to say with certainty whether or not Lee may make landfall anyplace, or if it can spin harmlessly away from the U.S. Atlantic coast and different land lots.

Several long-range models at the moment have Lee eventually curving north — lacking the Caribbean and remaining offshore. While fashions are usually correct, they don’t seem to be excellent. Hurricane Irma, in 2017, was speculated to observe an analogous path — as an alternative, it walloped Florida’s Gulf coast.

Even if Lee misses land, forecasters say swells generated by the storm “are expected to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.”

The system has been gaining energy because it passes over “record-warm waters of near [86 degrees Fahrenheit] east of the Lesser Antilles,” the NHC said this week, including that such heat waters are extra anticipated within the Gulf of Mexico, not the Atlantic Ocean.

Lee is the thirteenth named storm of what’s an above-average Atlantic hurricane season. As researcher Phil Klotzbach notes, solely “4 other years on record have had 13+ Atlantic named storms by Sept. 5: 2005, 2011, 2012, 2020.”