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I have upgraded, my current theme is technology: Vijay Kedia

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I have upgraded, my current theme is technology: Vijay Kedia

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Evaluating the entire market on the base of movement of indices is totally wrong. It is a myth. The bull market continues, says the MD of Kedia Securities.

Should one use global corrections and bad days to buy or should one use bad days and global corrections to book profits?
Let me tell you first of all what I have understood and what I have experienced in my life, that evaluating the entire market on the base of movement of indices is totally wrong. It is a myth. Let me give you a few examples. The Nifty IT index from 2000 to 2020 has appreciated 8 and 9 times. Infosys has also appreciated 8 and 9 times. TCS has appreciated more than 15 times or 20 times. Wipro is at the same 2000 level. So if somebody had invested in Wipro looking at the Nifty IT index, then he would have really lost his fortune. So, I think this narrative is totally wrong. Bull market is always there.

As I have said earlier also, it is like sunlight. It is somewhere there in the market. You have to choose. You have to have an unbiased mind and select your stocks. Now coming back to whatever is happening today in the US market, it was bound to happen and I do not think this correction has come to an end. It may have a prolonged correction also. For me, it is very difficult to describe how this rally or this correction is going to take place. But none of my investments are based on the US market nor the indexes, nor Nifty, nor Sensex. They have their individual territory, individual pattern so I am just focussing on my individual investments.

We have seen a drought in mid and smallcap stocks in the last three years. Given the recent price action, do you think a new bull market in mid and smallcap stocks has started and are we in for a big move or big rally like we saw between 2014 and 2017 or 2013 and 2018?
When we are talking about small and midcaps, we are talking about 4,000 shares. All of them are not going to sail in the same direction. Basically I am focussing on not more than 300-400 shares. Out of them, you will get opportunity in a lot of shares but I somehow feel that this rally in the market is similar to what happened in 2017 and 2018 when everything was going up. So I am a little cautious.

But having said that, I do not intend to sell any of my shares. As it is, I have reshuffled my portfolio. So I am okay even if Nifty goes down by say 1,000 points or so, if at all it goes down. I am not saying that it is going to fall, so whatever correction comes in the market, I am okay with this and I am mostly invested into midcaps. So I am okay with my midcaps.

Some would argue that does it make sense to invest in mid and smallcap stocks when there is an existential crisis for a lot of these companies. What would you say?
In one of the interviews of Manish Sabharwal of Teamlease, he has said that there are 63 million enterprises in India and out of those 63 million, just 18,500 have more than Rs 10 crore capital. All these things are going to consolidate. So ultimately a lot of companies may die. Now, there are many sectors which are dominated by midcaps only. There are no large caps.For example say Cera Sanitaryware. It plays a dominant role not only in the sanitary sector but also in the housing sector as a whole. But it is only a midcap. So, the idea is to find a small cap which can transform into a midcap and a midcap which can transform into a large cap. It might take 10 years or 15 years. This is the job of an investor in the market.

You bought into Cera Sanitaryware, you bought into Atul Auto and you bought into some property stocks. What is the theme which you are betting on now?
Currently I am focussing on PC & DC, Pre Corona and During Corona and post corona. I do not know when this post corona phase will begin but as of now, I am focussing on this theme and certainly the technology is where I am focussing that is why I reshuffled my portfolio. My current theme is technology, digital technology, new age technology.

You are trying to morph your portfolio towards companies which would benefit from digital adaptation. When you say you have reshuffled your portfolio, what have you sold?
I have sold many shares. Whatever mistake I did in the past I have tried to rectify. I sold JNC Projects and some Everest Industries along with some small caps. I did a lot of what we call grand masti. I bought Camlin at 100 PE and I got punished. I sold all those shares and some more I do not remember.

When we interacted last on a webinar, you had said that you had invested in Zee and Bajaj Auto. Are you still invested in them?
I am still invested in Zee. On the contrary, I have bought more, the king is back. Bajaj Auto I have sold though it is one of the best companies in India, I thought that maybe it would not multiply. My job is to look for the companies which aer not only good but which can rise faster than others so that is why I sold off my Bajaj Auto.

What is your understanding of what is the best way to play on tech? Should one bet on telecom, IT or a data provider?
My knowledge is very limited. So let me come straight to the point. I have invested in Oracle Financial for the simple matter that they are into Cloud and I think Cloud is the new FMCG. This entire technology sector to me sounds like a consumer thing. Every company sooner or later in the next five years has to go digital and Cloud is the game. Therefore I have invested in Oracle and it is not a recommendation. In the past also, so many times I have gone wrong. So please remember that.

I have also bought Zee. Zee is also a technology company. A part of it is digital as well. Plus, I have bought a little bit of Ramco Systems. I have bought some Tejas Network which is related to telecom technology. So these four, five things I have done.

Some would argue that you have been an old economy investor who bought into cement, auto and speciality chemical companies. Why tech?
No, if you look at my portfolio, Vaibhav Global is a tech company only. Look at Repro India. Although I did not make any profit even after holding for five years, I am still hopeful. It is also a tech company. So you have to change with time, if you do not change with time then you will become obsolete. Nowadays I will not invest in any steel company. Once I was a big investor in TISCO and maybe in the cement stock ACC. But that is past. I keep trying to upgrade and update myself.

In a euphoric market, gold sometimes starts trading at the valuation of platinum and diamond. In terms of the stock market, do you think gold is available at the price of diamonds now?
I maybe wrong again. Companies like Asian Paints and Nestle are 24 carat gold but they are selling at the price of diamonds and so I would not buy them at this price. Coming to gold available at the price of silver, that time has gone. We had that opportunity in the month of May or June or maybe July. Maybe in some pockets you might get some value, but if I am talking about my shares, all these gold are available at the price of gold only, maybe 24 carat gold could be available at 22 carat gold because it is very difficult to determine.

So the time for gold being available at the price of silver has gone for the time being and only if the market corrects, you might get that kind of opportunity again.



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