The withdrawal of southwest monsoon continues from the northwestern regions of India, according to the latest bulletin of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Furthermore, a cyclonic circulation lies over the north Andaman Sea and its neighbourhood, and another one lies over the east-central Arabian Sea. Owing to these conditions, the IMD has forecasted heavy rainfall coupled with thunderstorms in as many as four states and Union territories (UTs), including Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Maharashtra, Kerala and Mahe in Puducherry.

The IMD has already issued an orange alert in six districts of Kerala, including Idukki, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, and Ernakulam. A yellow alert has been sounded in four districts – Thiruvananthapuram, Malappuram, Palakkad, and Kozhikode. These districts have been put on alert till October 13 due to the possibility of heavy rainfall caused by two low depressions in the Bay of Bengal.

The latest IMD bulletin said that conditions are favourable for further withdrawal of southwest monsoon from some parts of Chhattisgarh, Gujarat; some parts of Maharashtra, Odisha and West Bengal, and most parts of Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand over the next two days.

Meanwhile, the cyclonic storm over the Andaman Sea is expected to trigger the formation of a low-pressure area over the same region in the next 36 hours. “It is likely to become more marked and move west northwestwards towards south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts during subsequent four to five days,” the IMD stated in its bulletin.

Additionally, the cyclonic storm that lies over the Arabian Sea is “very likely to persist during the next three to four days.”

Under the above influences, here are key IMD alerts for four states and UTs till October 15:

1.     Due to the cyclonic storm over the Andaman Sea, light to moderate rainfall at most places with isolated thunderstorms and heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands till October 15.

2. southern peninsular India is expected to receive fairly widespread to widespread, light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy downpours till October 15. The IMD has forecasted the same weather for Maharashtra till October 13.

3.     According to the IMD bulletin updates, isolated very heavy rainfall is very likely over Kerala and Mahe in Puducherry between October 12 and 14.