India Coronavirus Cases Numbers: Continuing its remarkable turnaround in the progression of novel Coronavirus epidemic, Delhi, on Monday, reported less than 1,250 new infections, the first time this has happened since June 1.

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There has been an impressive improvement in the Coronavirus situation in Delhi in the last two weeks. Ever since June 23, when Delhi reported as many as 3,947 new cases in a single day, the daily numbers have been steadily going down. At that time, Delhi was one of the fastest growing states, growing at nearly six per cent every day. That growth rate has come down to 1.7 now.

Daily new cases in Delhi: That growth rate has come down to 1.7 now.

What is heartening is that this has happened despite the number of tests steadily going up. In the last two weeks, during which the slowdown has happened, Delhi has been routinely testing between 20,000 and 25,000 samples every day, much higher than it was doing earlier.

In fact, the increase in testing could be one of the crucial reason for this turnaround in Delhi. As it stepped up its testing about a month ago — at that time the city was testing just about 5,000 samples every day — there was a sharp increase in the number of people being detected with the virus. For about ten days, the city reported between 2,000 and 3,500 cases every day. At that time, only Maharashtra was reporting higher numbers. This was also the period that Delhi overtook Mumbai as the city with the highest caseload in the country.

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Daily tests in Delhi: The increase in testing could be one of the crucial reason for this turnaround in Delhi.

The increased testing could have helped in identifying infected people at an early stage, and newly-built health infrastructure like the Sardar Patel facility did an effective job of keeping them isolated so that they did not transmit the disease further. There must be other reasons as well for the turnaround, but increased testing has certainly played an important role.

The result has been that on 13 of the last 16 days, the number of people declared to have recovered from the disease has been more than the new cases being detected. This metric could be extremely significant if it holds for another few days. That would mean that more people are recovering from the disease every day, than are falling sick, and could indicate the arrival of the peak.

The high numbers of recoveries right now could be attributed to the high number of new cases about two weeks ago. The people who fell sick then are recovering now. But if the trend holds on, it could signal something much bigger. No other state has shown such a trend — daily recoveries exceeding daily new cases — for more than two or three days at a stretch.

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COVID-19 in the capital

As a result, the number of active cases, those who are still to recover, and therefore need medical attention, hospital beds, ICU or ventilator care, has been coming down, from a level of about 25,000 to about 18,000 now. Delhi, therefore, has much lesser number of patients to worry about, and the burden on the hospital infrastructure is also reducing.

On Monday, Delhi had another interesting development which is not fully explained right now. Following a data reconciliation exercise, the total number of tests in Delhi got reduced by almost one lakh. Till Sunday, the state was reporting about 7.89 lakh tests having been conducted. On Monday, this number fell to 6.92 lakh. Delhi just said the adjustment in numbers was a result of reconciliation of testing numbers by the Indian Council of Medical Research. Such data-adjustment in testing numbers has happened earlier as well. In Maharashtra, for example, the testing numbers had got reduced by over 20,000 in May following such an exercise. But the number in Delhi is the biggest impact of a data reconciliation exercise so far.

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Daily new cases in Delhi: That growth rate has come down to 1.7 now.

Elsewhere, Karnataka now seems to be going the way Delhi was three weeks ago. The state, already the fastest growing in the country for more than a week, reported 2,738 new cases on Monday, its highest so far. With more than 41,500 confirmed cases, it now has the fifth highest caseload in the country, and is all set to overtake Gujarat by Wednesday, if not on Tuesday itself.

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There is a surge happening in Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh as well. Andhra Pradesh has added more than 11,000 new cases in the last one week, and has been growing at 6.5 per cent every day (7-day compounded daily growth rate). Uttar Pradesh has added slightly less than 10,000 cases during this time, and has been growing at 4.18 per cent every day.

Top ten states with maximum caseload:

Telangana, which had been racing with Karnataka till last week, has taken a breather, and there is a slight slowdown being seen in the state. Outside the top-ten states, Odisha, Assam and Bihar are the ones to watch out for. These states have between 14,000 and 18,000 confirmed cases, and have been growing at over 4.5 per cent every day.

(An earlier version of the story said the number of new cases in Delhi had fallen below 1,000 on Monday. The number has actually fallen below 1,250. The error is regretted).

Follow the government’s latest guidance on safeguarding yourself during the coronavirus pandemic, including travel advice within and outside the country. The World Health Organization has also busted some myths surrounding coronavirus. The Ministry of Health’s special helpline is available at +91-11-23978046, ncov2019@gmail.com and ncov2019@gov.in.