Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: India steps up engagement with Myanmar’s ruling junta amid ethnic violence within the Indian state of Manipur, Bangladesh’s authorities appears eager to disqualify opponents as nationwide elections strategy, and 26 Indian opposition events launch an alliance to counter the ruling celebration subsequent yr.

India is going through a vexing new foreign-policy headache alongside its border—and it doesn’t should do with Pakistan or China. On Sunday, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met his counterpart from Myanmar’s military-led authorities, Than Swe, on the sidelines of a regional convention in Bangkok. The assembly adopted a two-day visit to Myanmar this month by Indian Defense Secretary Giridhar Aramane.

This stepped-up engagement takes place towards the backdrop of violence in Myanmar that has intensified because the navy took energy in a coup in February 2021, and which poses rising dangers to Indian pursuits. Meanwhile, ethnic violence has flared within the Indian state of Manipur, which borders Myanmar to the west. The unrest has pitted the bulk Meitei neighborhood towards the minority Kuki group, which has ethnic ties to the Chin group in Myanmar.

The India-Myanmar border—like many in South Asia—is tense. Groups in Myanmar have offered sanctuary to some militants from Manipur, and New Delhi and Naypyidaw have lately collaborated on efforts to apprehend the rebels. However, the Myanmar junta has additionally reportedly sought to recruit a few of these militants to combat towards the anti-coup resistance in Myanmar, and it has did not cease rebels primarily based on its aspect of the border from staging assaults in India.

The Indian authorities probably worries that the post-coup violence in Myanmar will additional embolden militants, smugglers, and different destabilizing forces, imperiling its safety pursuits. The junta has staged vicious crackdowns in Myanmar’s Chin state and Sagaing area, the place resistance is powerful; in January, two bombs reportedly landed in India. And because the navy took over, border circumstances have become extra porous, enabling extra drug smuggling and human trafficking.

The ongoing unrest in Manipur has raised the stakes for New Delhi. Some Meitei leaders claim that Kuki rebels have entered Manipur from Myanmar, whereas Kuki representatives assert that any cross-border motion is peaceable. Meitei leaders additionally accuse Myanmar of financing poppy cultivation in Kuki areas of Manipur; Kuki neighborhood leaders counter that it’s funded by Meitei cartels. Regardless, insurgents in Manipur have operated from Myanmar, and Kuki leaders acknowledge some cross-border migration.

New Delhi can also be upping its outreach to Naypyidaw as a result of it worries that battle may have an effect on regional connectivity initiatives. India goals to strengthen integration with its neighbors to the north and east by the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral and Technical Cooperation. It is pursuing a delayed freeway venture with fellow initiative members Myanmar and Thailand, which Jaishankar highlighted on Tuesday, emphasizing the necessity to expedite “projects that have faced challenges in the recent past.”

Jaishankar additionally described India’s border areas as “seriously disturbed” and stated that “any actions that aggravate the situation should be avoided”—sturdy language that displays New Delhi’s deepening issues. He reiterated India’s assist for restoring democracy in Myanmar, a place the Indian authorities has taken because the coup, hoping for much less violence and fewer safety and financial dangers. This stance raises some questions; in spite of everything, India can also be strengthening undemocratic forces by arming Myanmar’s navy.

When it involves the junta, New Delhi walks a tremendous diplomatic line. India wants Myanmar’s cooperation on border and connectivity points, and it needs to keep away from Myanmar turning into absolutely reliant on China. This helps clarify why India is a high arms supplier to Myanmar: According to the United Nations, India has despatched extra weaponry to the junta because the coup. This might cut back Myanmar’s reliance on China, however it’s definitely fueling the very violence that poses a danger to India.

India can afford to go a step additional by ramping up humanitarian support and offering extra help to those in Myanmar displaced by the junta’s violence. This may bolster Myanmar’s democratic forces, together with the parallel National Unity Government, which incorporates elected lawmakers ousted by the navy in 2021. It would additionally present that India is keen to transcend platitudes in efforts to revive democracy in Myanmar.

Bangladesh election watch. During a by-election in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on Monday, opposition candidate Hero Alam was assaulted at a polling station by those that he and native retailers described as ruling Awami League celebration activists. Meanwhile, latest reviews revealed that the federal government plans to fast-track pending fees towards opposition leaders to forestall them from contesting nationwide elections in January. The credibility of the fees, which embrace arson and different severe crimes, is questionable.

Both developments emerged with a European Union mission at the moment stationed in Bangladesh to gauge whether or not the bloc ought to ship election observers in January, and simply days after senior U.S. officers visited Dhaka to debate the elections. Senior Awami League leaders condemned the assault on Alam, and police made seven arrests in reference to the assault. But none of this can assist the ruling celebration persuade skeptical worldwide interlocutors that the January ballot shall be free and honest.

India’s opposition alliance. On Tuesday, 26 Indian political events announced an opposition alliance that plans to problem Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in subsequent yr’s common election. The coalition, which calls itself INDIA (an acronym for Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance), consists of high opposition leaders from the Congress celebration, in addition to representatives from regional events.

The BJP stays the favourite to win in 2024, regardless of losing a state election in Karnataka in May. The opposition alliance has its personal challenges, together with inside disagreements and the disqualification of Congress chief Rahul Gandhi from political workplace. It is holding conferences to determine a standard platform to counter the BJP, which has been criticized for democratic backsliding. “We are setting aside our political differences to save democracy,” Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge stated on Tuesday.

Pakistan catches a break? Pakistan’s financial and political crises appear to be easing, if modestly. Last Wednesday, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) govt board formally approved a $3 billion package deal for Pakistan, which ought to unlock further support from key collectors and save the nation from a debt default. And final weekend, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif pledged handy over energy subsequent month to a caretaker administration to arrange for elections, consistent with the structure.

Sharif stated the handover will occur just a few days earlier than the tip of the National Assembly’s present five-year time period. Elections should happen inside 90 days of the federal government’s resignation, that means a vote must be anticipated in November.

Trouble should still lie forward. The authorities elected in November may get chilly ft and refuse to undertake unpopular austerity measures required by the IMF, as many Pakistani governments have executed earlier than. And the political setting stays polarized by a significant confrontation between Pakistan’s present management and former Prime Minister Imran Khan. It’s very attainable that the election loser received’t settle for the consequence.

A large on-line safety breach has uncovered the non-public knowledge of round 50 million individuals in Bangladesh—roughly 30 p.c of the nation’s inhabitants. The target was the federal government’s Office of the Registrar General. Cybersecurity consultants blame the breach, first reported by TechCrunch earlier this month, on authorities web sites’ reliance on “outdated security protocols.”

The incident is politically embarrassing for the nationwide authorities. Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has made main commitments to what her celebration brands as “Digital Bangladesh”—an effort to strengthen the nation’s digital economic system and connectivity.

The breach may also deepen present issues among the many public about on-line safety. Dhaka has cracked down on dissent with a digital security law that targets content material crucial of the federal government, and reports earlier this yr discovered that Israeli companies have bought spy ware and surveillance applied sciences to Bangladesh’s authorities in recent times.

A Dhaka Tribune editorial praises the United Kingdom’s latest characterization of Bangladesh as a key strategic actor within the Indo-Pacific area and argues that Dhaka can leverage its diplomatic partnerships to pursue improvement objectives. “We must continue to put diplomacy and our strategic partnerships with other nations at the heart of our development and nation building initiatives,” it argues.

Researcher Amna Ejaz Rafi defends the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, writing within the Express Tribune. She argues that its critics search “to postpone the change in international order” by expressing objections to the landmark funding venture. “The forces of connectivity and economic integration … are seen as a challenge to [the] global power structure,” she writes.