The consecration of a Hindu temple in Ayodhya, the legendary birthplace of the god Ram, on January twenty second was an enormous non secular occasion in India. It carried political significance, too. It was presided over by the prime minister, Narendra Modi, and signalled the unofficial begin to the marketing campaign of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) forward of a normal election in April and May. It additionally became a enterprise jamboree. Attendees included a “Who’s Who” of India Inc, from the heads of the nation’s mightiest conglomerates to founders of its sexiest startups. All got here to pay tribute to Ram—however largely to Mr Modi.

Some company company got here due to real appreciation for his stewardship of the financial system. Others confirmed up out of worry that in the event that they didn’t, they and their companies would possibly discover themselves heading off tax inspectors or struggling to safe enterprise permits from a authorities that critics accuse of creeping authoritarianism. This odd mixture of sentiment displays the enterprise world’s angle in direction of India’s enigmatic strongman.

Businesses definitely have a lot to be grateful for. During Mr Modi’s decade-long tenure GDP has grown quicker than it has in most massive international locations. In the third quarter of 2023 it roared forward by 7.6%, 12 months on 12 months. Foreign direct funding went from $24bn within the 12 months earlier than Mr Modi’s election in 2014 to greater than double that on common up to now three monetary years (see chart 1). On January twenty second India’s stockmarket overtook Hong Kong’s because the world’s fourth-biggest by market worth.

Not all of that is Mr Modi’s doing. India has, for instance, benefited from Western corporations’ efforts to diversify provide chains away from China. But bosses additionally credit score his insurance policies. The roll-out of a nationwide digital-ID scheme has fuelled a increase in digital funds and e-commerce. A nationwide goods-and-services tax (GST) has changed a baffling patchwork of state levies. The monetary sector went from crippled to sturdy in ten years and the federal government has turned speak of privatisation into (some) motion, notably promoting Air India, the long-suffering flag provider.

Economists debate the knowledge of protectionist bungs reminiscent of increased tariffs and “production-linked incentives” (PLIs) to advertise manufacturing, on which the state is spending $26bn over 5 years—however companies love them. Christopher Wood of Jefferies, an funding financial institution, forecasts that if the BJP misplaced the election, the stockmarket would drop by 30%.

Industrialists aren’t shy about expressing their adulation. Two weeks earlier than making the pilgrimage to Ayodhya, the heads of India’s three largest conglomerates fawned on Mr Modi at a jamboree in his residence state of Gujarat. Mukesh Ambani of Reliance Industries referred to as Mr Modi “the most successful prime minister in India’s history”. Natarajan Chandrasekaran of Tata Sons spoke of Mr Modi’s “visionary leadership”. Gautam Adani of the Adani Group lauded him for setting “a benchmark for a more inclusive world order”. Lesser enterprise figures zealously echo such sentiments, ideally inside earshot of presidency officers.

In non-public, the reward is extra guarded. Corporate leaders worth Mr Modi’s willingness to listen to them out. He typically turns up in particular person at enterprise shindigs, which have mushroomed on his watch. Behind closed doorways he meets not simply massive bosses but additionally lowlier executives. Regional and Indian heads of multinationals report that in such audiences he listens to them intently, asks intelligent questions and by no means comes throughout as distracted or bored. They be happy to provide him their unadulterated opinions about coverage, which he takes in even when he then feels free to not act on them.

He can also be perceived as personally incorruptible—a welcome exception to India’s venal politics. Some businesspeople grumble that the federal government makes life simpler for nationwide champions, reminiscent of Reliance and Adani Group. But they concede that these teams are placing cash into areas reminiscent of telecoms, power and infrastructure, all of which India wants, and that their comparatively meagre monetary returns don’t scream cronyism. When distinguished corporations stumble due to mismanagement, Mr Modi doesn’t intervene to avoid wasting them from insolvency. That consists of corporations run by individuals seen to be near him, reminiscent of Mr Ambani’s brother, Anil, who headed a rival conglomerate, and the Ruia household, homeowners of Essar Steel.

Mr Modi has additionally, bosses acknowledge, opened doorways for them overseas. He used his current stint chairing the G20 membership of massive economies to advertise himself—but additionally to advertise his nation. He has established stronger ties with America, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Indian financiers and executives say they will now get conferences with American, Arab and European bankers who a decade in the past would have ignored their calls.

Criticisms come in additional hushed tones. India’s GDP per particular person grew briskly beneath Mr Modi by emerging-world requirements however had risen half as quick once more beneath his predecessor, Manmohan Singh of the Congress occasion, who additionally dominated for ten years. Stockmarket returns, too, have been decrease up to now decade than within the one earlier than (see chart 2). India could also be resurgent, however the official measure of enterprise funding as share of GDP will not be (see chart 3).

Many of Mr Modi’s most profitable insurance policies, such because the digital ID and the GST, have been first put ahead by Mr Singh’s authorities. Some taxes are decrease however, except for the GST, no much less Byzantine. The 73-year-old prime minister has no apparent successor. Although he stays sprightly, his eventual departure may due to this fact result in political instability of the kind that companies desire to keep away from.

Such issues come up repeatedly in conversations with distinguished enterprise figures. None needs to be quoted. One cause for the general public silence is as outdated because the Indian state: a rapport with the federal government may help companies reduce by way of impenetrable pink tape; an absence of 1 can depart them on the mercy of bureaucrats. Another cause is new, particular to Mr Modi’s BJP, and uttered underbreath. Criticism, businesspeople whisper, can invite retribution. This could come within the type of a probe by the Department of Revenue, the Serious Fraud Investigation Office or the Central Bureau of Investigation. It could concern issues relationship again years, which makes defending your self tougher and costlier. To many luminaries of India Inc, staying within the authorities’s good graces has gone from advisable to existential.

Fear of no favour

A tycoon final aired such issues brazenly 4 years in the past. Rahul Bajaj of the Bajaj Group, one other conglomerate, instructed Amit Shah, Mr Modi’s home-affairs minister, “You are doing good work, but despite that we don’t have the confidence that you will appreciate it when we criticise you openly. Intolerance is in the air.” Under Mr Singh, in contrast, the federal government was truthful sport. Mr Shah responded that “there is no need for anybody to fear…we have done nothing to be concerned about [with respect to] any criticism”. “If anyone does criticise,” he added, “we will look at the merit…and make efforts to improve ourselves.”

Bajaj died in 2022, aged 83. No different company grandee has publicly echoed him since. In the eyes of his fellow industrialists, Mr Modi and his authorities are nonetheless doing good work. But intolerance remains to be within the air, too. ■