There’s little doubt that India has made progress in its transition to renewable energy.

The nation’s leaders have been optimistic about its path to net zero, making daring claims that fifty% of its energy era will come from renewables by 2030, and 100% by 2070.

However, coal manufacturing continues to soar and reliance on the fossil gas will not finish any time quickly as India struggles to search out different methods to chill houses down and preserve the lights on.  

“India will not be able to survive completely without coal and there is no alternative for India in the coming 10 to 20 years,” stated Anil Kumar Jha, former chairman and managing director of Coal India — the world’s largest coal producer.

“If you are hungry and don’t have cake to eat, will you eat bread or die hungry? That is presently what India is doing,” Jha advised CNBC. “We don’t have an alternative to generate that amount of electricity, and will have to depend on coal.” 

Fossil fuels, primarily coal, proceed to make up 75% of India’s energy provide, making it “the only fuel that India has in relative abundance,” stated Neshwin Rodrigues, electrical energy coverage analyst at Ember, a worldwide power suppose tank.

Effects from local weather change have triggered more than 700 heat waves in India over the previous 5 a long time, driving up electrical energy demand as extra households buy air conditioners. 

“India is presently witnessing a rapid surge in electricity demand, driven by the electrification of numerous households, the burgeoning economy, and the increasing adoption of electric vehicles, infrastructure development, and cooling systems,” stated Sooraj Narayan, Wood Mackenzie’s senior analysis analyst of energy and renewables in Asia Pacific. 

“This heightened power demand necessitates a reliable, cost-effective, and consistent power generation source, which coal currently fulfills,” he highlighted. 

Data from the International Energy Agency confirmed that electrical energy consumption in India from air conditioners elevated by 21% between 2019 and 2022.

Nearly 10% of the nation’s electrical energy demand comes from house cooling and it will enhance ninefold by 2050, the IEA said.

Simultaneously, India’s coal consumption has quickly elevated. 

The nation’s coal manufacturing rose to 893 million tons in 2022 to 2023, a 14% progress from 778 million tons in 2021 to 2022, in line with information from the Ministry of Coal.

Jha estimated coal manufacturing may attain 1,335 million tons in 2031 to 2032. 

This raises the query about whether or not India will have the ability to attain its 2030 target of attaining 50% of its power necessities from non-fossil gas sources. As of now, power analysts do not suppose it is achievable. 

“Coal remains a reliable fallback option for India to ensure consistent and dependable power generation, especially as it strives to meet the demands of a rapidly growing population and economy,” Narayan identified. 

This may very well be the norm for India till after 2030 — when coal demand is predicted to peak, in line with Sumant Sinha, founding father of Indian renewable power agency ReNew Power. 

“What we cannot afford as a country is essentially to shortchange our growth on account of a lack of power capabilities. Whether we like it or not, coal will continue to have a role to play in India,” Sinha advised CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on final week. 

Despite with the ability to produce low-cost wind and photo voltaic power, only 22% of India’s power generation is met by renewables.

All the analysts who spoke to CNBC agreed the nation’s photo voltaic, wind and hydro power capabilities are nonetheless unreliable as they’re depending on climate circumstances and the local weather.

“Renewable sources like solar and wind are inherently variable, relying on natural factors such as sunlight, wind and water availability. This variability makes them less dependable for meeting the nation’s burgeoning power demand,” Wood Mackenzie’s Narayan stated. 

The South Asian nation at present has round 180 gigawatts of put in renewable power, and hydropower makes up half of that blend. However, extra superior infrastructure is required to make sure it serves as a dependable various to coal sooner or later.

India skilled the driest August in additional than a century when it received 36% less rainfall. Coal reliance that month grew by 13% in comparison with the 12 months earlier than.

“While India seeks to leverage hydropower to balance its grid, this source of renewable energy is not without its complexities,” Narayan stated, explaining that tasks are sometimes delayed. 

“The construction of dams and run-of-river projects for hydropower often encounters prolonged delays, extensive gestation periods, and is contingent on variable rainfall patterns.”

Solar and wind power face the identical hurdles as underdeveloped energy grids curtail progress within the sector. 

“India’s existing grid infrastructure is not fully equipped to handle the integration of variable renewable energy sources like solar and wind,” in line with Narayan. 

Ramping up investments — notably in battery storage — could also be probably the most important means for India to satisfy its net-zero transition targets.

India at present has round 180 gigawatts of put in renewable power and goals to succeed in 500 gigawatts by 2030, in line with government agency Invest India.

“Grid-scale battery storage is costly, with supply chain disruptions further driving up prices due to events like the Covid-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts. These complexities render it challenging to rely solely on renewables for consistent and dependable power generation,” Narayan stated.

Another situation is that renewables are a frontloaded funding the place “all your investments happen on the day of installation. You pay for everything upfront,” stated Rodrigues from Ember.

“The problem with that is that you require a lot of financing capacity, and there is limited financing capacity in India,” he added, warning that India’s net-zero targets can’t be met with out overseas investments.

“Going forward, we need to find ways to first phase down coal, then we can talk about completely phasing it out.”

— CNBC’s Naman Tandon contributed to this report.