India’s R value for Covid-19 drops back to 1.11, after three-month high last week

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India’s R value for Covid-19 drops back to 1.11, after three-month high last week

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July 13, 2020

India’s R value for Covid-19 drops back to 1.11, after three-month high last week

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Health Department workers conduct a door to door survey to check the spread of coronavirus, at Dasna ward 4, on July 12, 2020 in Ghaziabad, India.

© Sakib Ali/Hindustan Times via Getty Images
Health Department workers conduct a door to door survey to check the spread of coronavirus, at Dasna ward 4, on July 12, 2020 in Ghaziabad, India.

India’s effective reproduction number ‘R’ for Covid-19 — a key parameter to measure the rate of infection — has decreased again to 1.11 after it had increased for the first time in three months last week.

The R value went up to 1.19 on 7 July from 1.11 around 26 June, just a week since ‘Unlock 2’ kicked in. The last time India saw its R value go up was around 6 April, when it had climbed to 1.83 from 1.7.

Also watch: India’s coronavirus tally mounts to over 8.7 lakh (Video by News18)

India’s coronavirus tally mounts to over 8.7 lakh

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According to Sitabhra Sinha, a researcher at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai, the R for Covid-19 in India has gone back down to 1.11 this week.

At this rate, India is likely to cross four lakh active coronavirus cases by 29 July.

In pictures: Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak around the world

A steward walks amid empty seats inside the arena during a rain delay at Roland Garros during the 2020 French Open in Paris, France, on Sept. 27.

First-year students wearing masks attend a commencement ceremony at Wuhan University in China on Sept. 26.

Members of a church choir parade during the celebration of the eve of the Ethiopian Orthodox holiday of Meskel, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Sept. 26.

Dancers wearing face shields perform during a practice session at an art and cultural center in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, on Sept. 26.

Nuns wearing face masks walk across a street in Rome, Italy, on Sept. 25.

A man sits in an empty cafe in London, England, on Sept. 24.

A man disinfects a tent set up by members of the National Front Anti-AMLO to protest against Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador at the Zócalo square in Mexico City, Mexico, on Sept. 24.

Children play with bubbles during the opening of kindergarten schools in Bogota, Colombia, on Sept. 23.

A woman walks past a sign that reads “#getcountedNYC” during Phase 4 of reopening in New York City, New York, U.S., on Sept. 22.

Workers wearing personal protective equipment (PPE) suits attend to customers at a salon in Ahmedabad, India, on Sept. 20.

Worshippers maintain social distancing as they attend Friday prayers after the COVID-19 restrictions were eased, in Kufa mosque, near Najaf, Iraq, on Sept. 18.

Protesters wearing protective masks applaud and hit flight cases as they maintain social distance during a demonstration along the streets of Madrid, Spain, on Sept. 17. Spain saw demonstrations in some 28 cities under the slogan “Red Alert” in a cry for more support for the entertainment and events sector, which has been in paralysis since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A worker wearing a protective suit sprays disinfectant at a sauna and spa center in preparation for its reopening, in Hong Kong on Sept. 16.

A teacher checks the body temperature of students at a government school in Lahore, Pakistan, on Sept. 15. Educational institutes were reopened in the country nearly six months after the spread of the coronavirus.

Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi waves as he leaves the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan, Italy, on Sept. 14. He was hospitalized since Sept. 3, after testing positive for coronavirus.

New York City firefighters wear face masks as they pause outside of Engine Company 10 and Ladder Company 10 across from One World Trade Center, the Freedom Tower, in lower Manhattan, New York, U.S., during commemoration ceremonies for the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks on Sept. 11. Due to COVID-19 pandemic restrictions, only family members were allowed to gather at the 9/11 Memorial plaza.

Municipal employees greet during a campaign to promote the keeping of safety distances against the spread of the coronavirus in Santa Tecla, El Salvador, on Sept. 10.

People wear protective face masks as they look at a smart robot nucleic acid swab test during the China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS) at Beijing Olympic Park in China on Sept. 6.

Participants in protective face masks attend the 4th Edition of the Equality Parade in Katowice, Poland, on Sept. 5.

Employees of the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC) sanitize a coach during a media preview as the Delhi Metro network prepares to resume services partially after more than five months shutdown, in New Delhi, India, on Sept. 3.

Residents of the highland city of Puno wait to be tested for free for COVID-19 during a municipal campaign in Peru on Sept. 2.

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Workers of the local government disinfect a woman and her house as a preventive measure, in the municipality of Xochimilco in Mexico City, Mexico, on Aug. 26.

Santas have their temperature taken as they attend a socially distanced Santa school training at Southwark Cahedral in London, England, on Aug. 24.

A sign outside the Hollywood Hotel in Surry Hills warning people to keep their distance, in Sydney, Australia, on Aug. 22.

Public officials disinfect pews at the Yoido Full Gospel Church in Seoul, South Korea, on Aug. 21.

Military personnel from the Brazilian Armed Forces sanitize a bus at the Santa Candida bus terminal in Curitiba, Brazil, on Aug. 10.

A teacher, wearing a face shield as a precaution against the coronavirus outbreak, speaks to her students in a makeshift classroom at her residence in Tangerang, Indonesia, on Aug. 10.

A Vietnamese woman carries a stuffed animal while boarding a repatriation flight from Singapore to Vietnam, at Changi Airport in Singapore on Aug. 7.

Two women in traditional kimonos wear face masks as they visit Sensō-ji temple in Tokyo, Japan on Aug. 7.

A man walks past a sign on a truck in Melbourne, Australia, on Aug. 5.

An artist gives finishing touches to a mural depicting frontline workers, in Kolkata, India, on Aug. 5.

Pilgrims wearing face masks and keeping social distance perform Tawaf around Kaaba during the annual Hajj pilgrimage in the holy city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia on July 31.

A sanitation worker wearing personal protective equipment disinfects common areas of a public school in Brasilia, Brazil, on July 31.

A municipal employee teaches a user to use the thermometer of a Transmetro station in Guatemala City, Guatemala, on July 31.

Bar and restaurant owners demonstrate asking the government to allow them to reopen their businesses given the difficult economic situation they are going through during the COVID-19 pandemic, in Cali, Colombia, on July 31.

Anthony Fauci (R), director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Representative Carolyn Maloney wear protective masks while greeting each other with an elbow bump in Washington, D.C., U.S., on July 31.

A man wearing a face mask has his temperature checked before being allowed to go into Manchester Central Mosque in England on July 31.

A healthcare worker passes paperwork to a woman in a vehicle at a COVID-19 testing site outside of Marlins Park in Miami, Florida, U.S., on July 27.

A disinfection worker wearing protective gear sprays disinfectant on a medical worker after they perform mass swab tests for the coronavirus disease at a boarding school in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, on July 29.

Customers sit with a teddy bear used to keep social distancing measures at a restaurant in Polanco neighborhood of Mexico City, Mexico, on July 26.

Nurses in PPE kits discuss before they start their duty of door-to-door screening in Pune, India, on July 20.

A woman wearing a face mask walks at the Trocadero Palace near the Eiffel Tower in Paris, France, on July 10.

Paramedics gather outside the North Melbourne public housing complex, where nine towers had been placed under hard lockdown, in Australia on July 8.

A municipal funeral home worker watches the live news showing Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro announcing his positive result of the COVID-19 test, in Curitiba, Brazil, on July 7, 2020.

A doctor clad in protective gear measures the temperature of a woman during a house-to-house new coronavirus testing campaign in Avircato, Bolivia, on July 7.

A view of a newly built hospital to treat COVID-19 patients at the Mahalaxmi Racecourse in Mumbai, India, on July 7. India on July 6 became the country with the third-highest coronavirus caseload in the world.

Women eat lunch in a social-distancing greenhouse dining pod in the former parking lot of the Lady Byrd Cafe in Los Angeles, California, U.S., on July 7.

Visitors hold reproductions of the Mona Lisa outside the Louvre Museum as it reopens its doors following a 16-week closure due to lockdown measures, in Paris, France, on July 6.

Serbian army soldiers prepare a makeshift field hospital to accommodate patients infected by COVID-19 inside the Belgrade Arena in Serbia on July 6.

People get tested by Australian Defense Force (ADF) personnel for COVID-19 at a drive-through testing site at Flemington, which sits on the border of a hotspot suburb, in Melbourne, Australia, on July 4.

A clown, wearing a face shield, welcomes visitors at Tibidabo Amusement Park on the first day of its reopening in Barcelona, Spain, on July 4. The amusement park reopened for the first time since March 14 under strict sanitary security measures, including mandatory wearing of face masks, maintaining of social distancing between people or family units, following hand hygiene protocol and capacity restrictions with tickets booked in advance.

A Palestinian worker wearing a protective suit sprays disinfectant to sanitize a street in Hebron, West Bank, on June 28.

A social distancing sign warning of keeping two meters apart is seen in Porthcawl, Wales, on June 24.

Personnel of the National Health Service perform Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests on the population to detect COVID-19 cases in San Cristóbal, Dominican Republic, on June 13.

A worker sanitizes the railings surrounding the General Hospital’s triage area for COIVD-19 patients in Mexico City, Mexico, on June 12.

A health worker takes a nasal swab sample during public testing conducted at a market in Bali, Indonesia, on June 12.

A firefighter sprays disinfectant as a preventive measure against the spread of the COVID-19 in a containment zone in Chennai, India, on June 11.

Health workers from the city of Melgaço arrive at a small riverside community, where families live without electricity, to give medical care to its residents, in Brazil, on June 9.

A caretaker cleans the floor at the Durgiana Temple after the government eased a nationwide lockdown, in Amritsar, India, on June 7.

An officer enforces social distancing at the entrance of the Grand Palace in Bangkok, Thailand, on June 7.

A traveler queues for check-in on an Air Austral flight to Paris, France, from Dzaoudzi–Pamandzi International Airport on the French Indian Ocean island of Mayotte on June 5, as measures to curb the spread of the COVID-19 are maintained on Mayotte over concerns about the continued spread of the virus there.

A member of the ‘Torcida Urubuzada’ (soccer fans) of Flamengo delivers food donations amid the coronavirus pandemic, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on June 5.

An organ grinder waits for a delivery of donated groceries in Mexico City, Mexico, on June 4.

Local authorities interview residents at the Santa Cruz neighborhood in Medellin, Colombia, on June 1, during the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

People are seen inside a movie theater during its reopening, in Bangkok, Thailand, on June 1, after the Thai government eased isolation measures put in place to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Muslims pray spaced apart to help curb the spread of the coronavirus during a Friday prayer at the Al Barkah Grand Mosque in Bekasi, Indonesia, on May 29. Muslims in some parts of Indonesia attended Friday prayers as mosques closed by the coronavirus for weeks were allowed to start reopening in the world’s most populous Muslim nation.

People sit in circles painted as guidelines for social distancing at the Domino Park in New York City, New York, U.S., on May 24.

Staff at Suleymaniye Mosque perform a morning prayer in Istanbul, Turkey, on May 24.

Empty chairs are placed for worshipers on Notre Dame de la Garde basilica’s terrace before the first public mass after France eased lockdown measures, in Marseille, France, on May 24.

A worker wearing personal protective equipment (PPE) disinfects Jamaica market in Mexico City, Mexico, on May 23.

A worker disinfects an area of El Angel crematorium, in Lima, Peru, on May 21.

A railway official checks body temperature of a passenger before boarding a train at the Karachi Cantonment railway station in Pakistan on May 20, as train services resumed ahead of the Eid al-Fitr festival after the government eased a nationwide lockdown.

A woman disinfects an employee before starting her shift at a leather goods factory in Bogota, Colombia, on May 19.

Healthcare workers acknowledge the applause as people thank them with a clapping tribute outside the Gregorio Marañón Hospital in Madrid, Spain, on May 17.

A university graduate student receives a paper copy of her diploma from a neighbor, as they adhere to social distancing norms, at a surprise graduation party, in Washington, D.C., U.S., on May 17.

Men wearing protective overalls and masks clean the statue of St. Peter during the sanitation of St. Peter’s Basilica in Vatican City on May 15.

People wear protective masks as they watch a movie at a drive-in theater in Amenia, New York, U.S., on May 15.

A nurse points to a firefighter holding a “thank you” sign as she leaves at the end of her shift at a hospital in South San Francisco, California, U.S., on May 14.

A health agency official, seen alongside his disinfectant dispenser, rests by the entrance to a public toilet as other colleagues conduct polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing for COVID-19, at a bus station in Bandung, Indonesia, on May 13.

80/80 SLIDES

An epidemic is arrested when the R value consistently remains below 1. However, without continued precautions, it can increase again.

“From about 10 June onwards, the R has been steady at around 1.11. But for about 4-5 days last week it went up to 1.19 and after that it just came back to 1.11 again,” Sinha told ThePrint.

What is effective reproduction number or ‘R’ value?

R and R0 (basic reproduction number) are an estimate of the number of people one patient can infect.

R0 is calculated at the beginning of the epidemic when the entire population is assumed to be susceptible to the disease. The ‘R’ changes with time, and takes into account that some individuals are protected from the disease — either because they have developed immunity or because of social distancing and other measures.

For India, R0 was calculated to be about 1.83 in April.

‘R’ is a product of three factors — the probability of infection when a susceptible person comes in contact with an infected individual, the average rate of contact between susceptible and infected individuals and the duration during which an individual spreads the infection.

It is calculated through mathematical epidemiological models that compute how fast the virus spreads through the population.

As of Monday, India has 3,01,609 active cases of coronavirus. Over 8.7 lakh people have been infected by the virus so far, of which 23,174 have died while 5,53,471 have recovered.

Follow the government’s latest guidance on safeguarding yourself during the coronavirus pandemic, including travel advice within and outside the country. The World Health Organization has also busted some myths surrounding coronavirus. The Ministry of Health’s special helpline is available at +91-11-23978046, ncov2019@gmail.com and ncov2019@gov.in.

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