When it involves Armenia and its ethnic exclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, India has staked out a reasonably outlined place over the previous couple of years, from arms sales to transcontinental rail lines to condemnations of Azerbaijan’s aggression within the area. Certainly, this was not with out cause. For one, Azerbaijan’s long-time affiliation with Pakistan had turned the battle into one of many world’s extra obscure proxy wars. Additionally, the South Caucasus area has change into key for India’s ambitions to construct a transportation hall linking it to Europe by the Iranian plateau (known as the International North-South Transportation Corridor, or INSTC), a plan Armenia was all too wanting to support. 

All of this may recommend that in gentle of the collapse of Armenian traces in Nagorno-Karabakh final week, and the separatist authorities’s give up this week, India could be fast to emphasise its pursuits within the area. Yet the silence from the External Affairs Ministry speaks volumes about India’s estimation of the way forward for the South Caucasus.

India’s involvement as late as this summer season in Armenian affairs was, if something, progressing towards higher help for Armenia. India offered arms to Armenia, together with rocket launchers, artillery, and radar methods, regardless of loud resistance by Azerbaijan. India additionally sought to proceed a years-long technique of developing business ties with Armenia by signing a number of new MOUs with Armenia on digital infrastructure, in anticipation of the elevated industrial connection between the 2 international locations by way of the INSTC. In this regard, India really seemed to be doubling down on growing components of the transport hall, with increased investments being made and new contracts being drawn up over the summer season for Iran’s Chabahar port, an necessary piece of the INSTC. Certainly, none of this was significantly groundbreaking, however neither was it out of character with the course that Armenia-India bilateral relations have taken in the previous couple of years. In different phrases, there was little proof of India getting chilly ft previous to final week’s army operation by Azerbaijan.

Yet India has carried out little within the final week to point help for Armenia, and even condemnation for Azerbaijan’s actions. This is kind of unusual, contemplating that India had beforehand a minimum of expressed hope for a mediated settlement between the 2 sides. Yet, excluding a meeting at the U.N. General Assembly on Sunday, little in the best way of substantive motion has been taken on the a part of India to specific its place within the shift in energy within the Caucasus.

It could be exhausting to say India faces exterior strain to stay silent for worry of alienation: Countries as disparate as France, Iran, and the United States all expressed various levels of help for Armenia, or as a minimum concern for ethnic Armenians dwelling in Nagorno-Karabakh, all with little incident. This would, on its face, recommend that one thing inside is driving India’s public response to the disaster, maybe a realization {that a} partnership with Armenia is just too dangerous given the stakes.

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For its personal half, Armenia has seemingly realized that some change is afoot, sending a new ambassador final week to New Delhi regardless of the continuing chaos within the capital and Nagorno-Karabakh. The ambassador’s credentials, as each an Iran expert and as a regional diplomat within the South Caucasus, suggests the actual path that Armenia desires to take bilateral relations with India: Namely, emphasizing India’s hyperlink to the issues of the South Caucasus by way of its relationship with Iran. 

If India’s evaluation is that counting on Armenia as a key financial companion within the area is turning into too dangerous, they may very well be forgiven for pondering so, particularly with regard to its curiosity in finishing the INSTC. In order to take action, India wants a rail link to go from northwestern Iran throughout the southern Caucasus to both Russia or the Black Sea. In this regard, India (and Iran) have two choices: one by way of Armenia’s southern Syunik province, and the other by way of the Caspian coast by Azerbaijan. India has clearly chosen the previous, a minimum of up till this level. 

Yet the developments within the Nagorno-Karabakh battle threaten the viability of this rail line, because the hyperlink crosses the Zangezur hall, an necessary hypothetical hall linking Azerbaijan to its exclave, Nakhchivan. Although solely beforehand proposed, current comments by Ilham Aliyev, the president of Azerbaijan, in addition to Turkish President Erdogan’s speech on the UNGA, would recommend that the territorial viability of this hall is perhaps in query. This doesn’t appear to be an idle risk, both; a minimum of some powers, like Iran, appear to take the risk to Syunik severely sufficient to each reiterate Armenia’s control over the province (a truth that’s already internationally acknowledged) and muster troops to its northwestern border in response to the current combating. 

Regardless of whether or not battle really breaks out over the hall, the very fact stays that constructing a railway by a area that’s the attainable website of battle between Iran and Turkey, two of the biggest militaries within the area, is just not a recipe for political stability in the long run. India virtually definitely wants to seek out one other route.

At first look, the current developments in Nagorno-Karabakh would appear to be fairly the blow to India, whereas offering a boon to Pakistan and not directly benefiting India’s different principal rival in Asia, China. After all, a key benefit of the INSTC is that it will enable India to successfully outflank Pakistan and entry overland routes to Europe and Central Asia in any other case blocked by Islamabad. It would additionally present India a method by which to peel Iran out of China’s orbit, and doubtlessly outflank Beijing’s own infrastructure projects within the area. In supporting Azerbaijan militarily and diplomatically within the lead-up to the newest outbreak in combating, Pakistan has, deliberately or in any other case, performed a decisive position within the stymying of India’s explicit ambitions within the South Caucasus. 

However, Pakistan’s technique has drawbacks. Newly emboldened, Azerbaijan’s aggressive actions have drawn international condemnation. Any additional help might put Pakistan within the place of aiding a controversial energy that gives Islamabad with only a few direct, tangible advantages (not like Pakistan’s support for the Taliban, another controversial partner). 

Moreover, it’s not as if India lacks various choices. Although switching the INSTC to the Caspian Sea route could be diplomatically arduous, there’s nonetheless room for progress. Despite clashes on the Azeri embassy in Tehran earlier this yr, together with Azerbaijan’s continuing ties with Iran’s archenemy, Israel, the 2 international locations have been nonetheless capable of agree on a tentative proposal to restart building on the rail hyperlink between the 2 international locations. Even within the face of disagreements, the INSTC subject seems to be potent sufficient for Baku to place apart its variations with exterior powers for the sake of cooperation. Thus, though Azerbaijan has been eager to condemn India’s arms gross sales to Armenia, it is vitally unlikely that such friction will restrict future cooperation on the INSTC if India is absolutely severe about pursuing it. The effort will virtually definitely require some smoothing over of the connection, however India nonetheless has many choices to execute its INSTC technique, if it so chooses.

India’s current silence within the South Caucasus won’t be with out value. If India continues to stay silent on Armenia’s defeat, it is perhaps a destructive image to other countries looking for India’s army, diplomatic, and financial help. But that being mentioned, neither is the current defeat of Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh an entire rout of India’s ambitions inside the South Caucasus. As India refigures its overseas coverage to a area now modified by the defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh, it virtually definitely should search out different, extra steady avenues for its infrastructure ties; given the potential of the INSTC challenge, it won’t be exhausting to draw potential suitors. 

For their half, India’s financial and political rivals should provide you with new methods to stop the execution of India’s technique in Iran and the Caucasus. The success or failure of both facet will rely on how shortly they adapt to the modified actuality within the Caucasus.