Slowing from 6.3 per cent in July-September and 13.2 per cent in April-June quarter, the third quarter mirrored the affect of subdued consumption demand and exports amid rising enter prices and rates of interest because the Reserve Bank of India remained targeted on “withdrawal of accommodation”.

For the complete monetary yr 2022-23, NSO has retained the expansion estimate at 7 per cent within the second advance estimates. Revised knowledge for earlier monetary years was additionally launched which noticed progress price for monetary yr 2021-22 being revised up by 40 foundation factors to 9.1 per cent from 8.7 per cent earlier. There was upward revision for Covid-period too with GDP for 2020-21 now estimated at (-) 5.8 per cent as a substitute of (-) 6.6 per cent earlier.

The fourth quarter GDP estimate at 5.1 per cent is manner increased than the projection of 4.2 per cent for This autumn given by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its December coverage evaluation (with FY23 progress estimate at 6.8 per cent).

Private consumption expenditure slowed sharply to 2.1 per cent in October-December from 10.8 per cent within the corresponding interval final yr and eight.8 per cent 1 / 4 in the past regardless of sturdy excessive frequency knowledge. Manufacturing continued to be within the unfavourable territory for the second consecutive quarter at (-)1.1 per cent in October-December as in opposition to (-) 3.6 per cent in April-June and 1.3 per cent progress within the year-ago interval, indicating affect of rising enter prices.

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran mentioned manufacturing, on the face of it, has slowed down however there are sufficient high-frequency indicators exhibiting pretty sturdy manufacturing exercise. “Manufacturing appears to have slowed down on the face of it due to rising input cost, but if you look at PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) indicators, the manufacturing sector is in good health and performance of core sector in January tells us we do have a fairly robust manufacturing growth rate in the fourth quarter,” he mentioned.

Nageswaran mentioned quarter-on-quarter modifications are much less consequential and since they aren’t seasonally-adjusted, it must be seen with warning. “We need to be prepared for tighter financial conditions globally, weather-related uncertainties and geopolitical factors. 2023-24 may not see a big-ticket shock as we saw in early months of 2022-23 as the war broke out in 2022 but nonetheless some of the underlying factors are still simmering and we need to be watchful,” he mentioned.

With a 7 per cent progress price estimated for the complete monetary yr, GDP is predicted to develop at 5.1 per cent within the January-March quarter. With the revisions undertaken for the earlier fiscal, the GDP elements for FY23 additionally underwent revision: authorities closing consumption expenditure has been revised right down to 1.2 per cent from 3.1 per cent earlier; personal closing consumption expenditure is now estimated at 7.3 per cent down from 7.7 per cent earlier; whereas gross mounted capital formation – an indicator of funding – is seen rising 11.2 per cent as in opposition to earlier estimate of 11.5 per cent.

As per the information launched Tuesday, India’s nominal GDP, which components within the inflation price, is about to develop by 11.2 per cent in October-December as in opposition to 14.3 per cent within the year-ago interval. Gross Value Added or GVA — which is GDP minus web product taxes — grew at 4.6 per cent in Q3. Usually, GVA is decrease than GDP. “The tight control on the fiscal deficit and the larger subsidies given this quarter by the government has lowered the contribution of this sector to GVA and GDP,” Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda, mentioned.

Among sectors, agriculture is seen rising at 3.7 per cent in October-December as in opposition to 2.4 per cent within the earlier quarter and a pair of.3 per cent within the year-ago interval, whereas the mining sector is seen rising 3.7 per cent in Q3 as in opposition to a 0.4 % contraction within the earlier quarter and 5.4 per cent progress in the identical interval final fiscal.

The providers sector, which is the most important part of GDP, posted a progress of 6.2 per cent in the course of the quarter. Construction recorded progress of 8.4 per cent in Q3 as in opposition to 0.2 per cent within the year-ago interval, whereas commerce, inns, transport and communication grew at 9.7 per cent in Q3 as in opposition to 9.2 per cent within the year-ago interval.

“Some of its segments which were severely dented for being contact intensive and were not showing signs of revival in FY22, have also begun to show growth momentum,” Sunil Kumar Sinha, Principal Economist, India Ratings mentioned.

Net exports had been broadly flat as weakening import demand and falling costs helped cushion the affect of falling exports. “In terms of contribution, while domestic demand added less to growth, the drag from net exports reduced as well, somewhat balancing each other out,” Rahul Bajoria, MD & Head of EM Asia (ex-China) Economics, Barclays mentioned.