NEW DELHI: The four-month summer monsoon ended as ‘normal’ rainy season on Thursday by bridging the earlier deficit and its withdrawal from northwest India will start from October 6 – the second most delayed withdrawal after 1960, said India Meteorological Department (IMD) while predicting ‘normal’ winter (October-December) monsoon rainfall that occurs in south Peninsular India.
The summer (southwest) monsoon had seen the most delayed withdrawal in 2019 when the retreat started on October 9 as against its normal withdrawal date of September 17. Before 2019, the most delayed withdrawal was recorded in 1961.
Prediction of ‘normal’ winter monsoon following the four-month of summer monsoon is a positive signal for India’s agriculture as it would help the 2021-22 crop year (July-June cycle) to remain on track of target of record output of food-grains in the pandemic-hit year, giving much needed boost to the rural economy.

Overall acreage of Kharif (summer sown) crops such as paddy, pulses, cotton and maize have already crossed the normal sown area figure. Water storage in reservoirs and adequate soil moisture due to good rains in 30 out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, covering 83% of total area, will help in sowing of Rabi (winter sown) crops such as wheat and mustard as well.
“The 2021 October to December rainfall averaged over the south Peninsular India is most likely to be normal (89-111 % of long period average),” said IMD director general, M Mohapatra, while noting that this and the ‘above normal’ southwest monsoon rainfall in ‘monsoon core zone’ would help the farming operations.
The probabilistic rainfall forecast for winter monsoon in south Peninsular India shows that all five meteorological subdivisions (Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and South Interior Karnataka) of the region are most likely to get ‘normal’ rainfall. Its onset may happen towards the second half of October.
Since the summer monsoon will see late withdrawal, the IMD predicted that the northwest India (Punjab, Haryana, western UP and Delhi-NCR) may get more than normal rainfall in October. Mohapatra, however, said the rainfall in northwest India in October should not be interpreted in the context of southwest monsoon as this region normally gets low rainfall in that month whereas the northeast monsoon rainfalls (October-December) primarily occur in south Peninsular India.
The spatial distribution of probabilistic forecast suggests normal to above normal rainfall over most parts of south peninsular India except few small pockets of the region.
Though extreme rainfall events during the summer monsoon affected standing crops in certain areas of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and parts of Odisha, it was mainly linked with excess and intense rains due to cyclone ‘Gulab’ that had hit eastern coast on last Sunday and then crossed over the land mass before emerging on western coast on Thursday.