Though far-off, the latest developments within the South Caucasus area have implications for India, in connectivity and ties with the area.

The battle over the a long time

Nagorno-Karabakh is a mountainous area formally recognised as a part of Azerbaijan. But its 1.2 lakh inhabitants is predominantly ethnic Armenian, having shut cultural, social, and historic ties with Armenia. Basically, Nagorno-Karabakh is an ethnic Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan. The Armenians are Christians, whereas Azeris are Muslims. The conclave is linked to Armenia via the 5-km Lachin Corridor.

The area has seen conflicts of affect between regional powers because the medieval interval — imperial Russia, Ottoman Empire (modern-day Turkey) and the Persian empire (Iran). When Czarist Russia gave technique to the Soviet Union in 1921, Nagorno-Karabakh was a part of the Azerbaijan SSR (Soviet Socialist Republic).

In 1923, USSR established the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast—residence to a 95 per cent ethnically Armenian inhabitants—inside the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic.

As the Soviet Union collapsed, the primary spherical of tensions over Nagorno-Karabakh started in 1988, with its regional legislature passing a decision declaring its intention to affix Armenia, regardless of being geographically positioned inside Azerbaijan.

When the Soviet Union was dissolved in 1991 and Armenia and Azerbaijan achieved statehood, Nagorno-Karabakh formally declared independence.

War then broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan, killing about 30,000 folks. By 1993, Armenia had captured Nagorno-Karabakh, and moreover, occupied 20 per cent of Azerbaijan’s geographic space.

In 1994, Russia brokered a ceasefire generally known as the Bishkek Protocol. “This made Nagorno-Karabakh de facto independent with a self-proclaimed government in Stepanakert, but still heavily reliant on close economic, political, and military ties with Armenia,” a background observe on the battle by Council on Foreign Relations mentioned.

Sixteen years later, in September 2020, Azerbaijan and Armenia went to warfare once more. This time, Azerbaijan managed to wrest management of the territory round Nagorno-Karabakh. Russian analyst Dmitry Trenin believed that Azerbaijan took benefit of the truth that the US was busy with its Presidential elections and Russia was occupied with crises in its neighbourhood in Georgia.

Russia once more brokered a deal, and supplied peacekeeping forces alongside the Lachin Corridor. But having tasted victory, Azerbaijan needed extra concessions and no peace deal was inked.

Azerbaijan is claimed to have gotten assist from Turkey and Pakistan within the type of weapons and personnel. Pakistan navy personnel are believed to have helped the Azerbaijan forces, and on the bottom, there have been studies of Syrian, Libyan and Afghan fighters as nicely.

In December 2022, the Lachin Corridor was blockaded by Azerbaijan, inflicting extreme shortages of important items together with meals, gas and water in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Former International Criminal Court (ICC) Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo warned there was a “reasonable basis” to consider Azerbaijan was committing a genocide in Nagorno-Karabakh, terming hunger an “invisible genocide weapon”.

On September 19, days after an settlement to reopen the Lachin Corridor for assist deliveries sparked hopes of easing the disaster, Azerbaijan launched an “anti-terrorist” offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh and claimed to have regained full management over the area.

While Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev is being hailed as a hero in his nation, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is going through protests at residence. The way forward for about 1.2 lakh Armenians dwelling in Nagorno Karabakh is at stake, with studies of many leaving and fleeing to Armenia, fearing persecution.

India’s place

On the battle, India has at all times steered away from taking sides.

In 2020, after the battle broke out, it had mentioned, “India believes that any lasting resolution of the conflict can only be achieved peacefully through diplomatic negotiations. In this regard, we support OSCE Minsk Group’s continued efforts for a peaceful resolution of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.”

This time, after the battle, Delhi has made it clear on Thursday that it “encouraged the parties to move forward on ensuring long-term peace and security in the region through dialogue and diplomacy, which includes the safety and well-being of all civilians”.

India has ties with each Armenia and Azerbaijan. Importantly, the area is central to its plans of connectivity via the south Caucasus area.

India’s ties with Armenia date again millenia. Historians have advised that when Assyrian warrior queen Semiramis invaded India in 2000 BC, some Armenians accompanied her. According to literary proof, Indian settlements in Armenia have been established by two princes (Krishna and Ganesh escaping from Kannauj) in 149 BC.

The first guidebook to Indian cities in Armenian was written within the twelfth century. A couple of Armenian merchants had come to Agra through the Mughal Empire. Emperor Akbar, who’s believed to have an Armenian spouse Mariam Zamani Begum, granted them privileges and appreciable non secular freedom.

In the sixteenth century, Armenian communities emerged in Kolkata, Chennai, Mumbai and Agra. Today, the vestigial group is principally settled in Kolkata.

In distinction, historic ties between India and Azerbaijan have been more moderen — the ‘Ateshgah’ hearth temple within the neighborhood of Baku is an 18th-century monument, with a a lot older historical past, and has wall inscriptions in Devanagari and Gurmukhi. It is a surviving proof of the hospitality that Indian retailers on the Silk Route to Europe loved in Azerbaijani cities corresponding to Baku and Ganja.

In trendy instances, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, India recognised the independence of Armenia and Azerbaijan and established diplomatic relations.

With Armenia, India opened its embassy in 1999, has a treaty relationship, and has obtained as many as three Heads of State. There have been two visits from India on the stage of Vice President.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi met his Armenian counterpart in New York in September 2019, which was adopted by the External Affairs Minister’s go to to Yerevan in 2022.

Armenia publicly endorses India’s place on the decision of the Kashmir challenge on a bilateral foundation and helps India’s aspiration for a everlasting seat within the expanded UN Security Council.

In truth, in 2022, the India-Armenia deal to provide Armenian armed forces with PINAKA multi-barrel rocket launchers (MBRL), anti-tank munitions, and ammunitions and warlike shops value US $250 million was seen as Delhi siding with Yerevan.

In distinction, Azerbaijan’s proximity to Pakistan has been perceived as an irritant within the ties. There has not been a single go to on the stage of Head of State/ Government between India and Azerbaijan.

India’s Nobel laureate Rabindranath Tagore, former President Dr S. Radhakrishnan (as Vice President in 1956) and former Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru (in 1961) had visited the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. In latest years, Vice President M Venkaiah Naidu visited Baku for the NAM Summit in 2019, accompanied by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. Former External Affairs minister Sushma Swaraj had additionally visited Azerbaijan for the NAM ministerial assembly in 2018.

Because of the geographical location of Armenia and Azerbaijan, the area is vital as a viable hall for India’s connectivity with Russia and Europe via Central Asia and Iran.

Armenia and Azerbaijan are members of the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which India is eager to develop. India helps Armenia’s proposal to incorporate Iran’s Chabahar port in INSTC.

Tensions within the area immediately influence India’s plans to bypass Pakistan because the gateway to Europe and Russia. New Delhi has to determine a means round this.