Unlock the Editor’s Digest at no cost

Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favorite tales on this weekly e-newsletter.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata get together is on target for a collection of resounding victories in carefully watched state polls that can additional strengthen its grip over nationwide politics forward of common elections subsequent yr.

With counting nonetheless underneath method on Sunday, the BJP was on observe to win a majority in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, three states within the populous and politically influential northern Hindi-speaking belt — flipping the final two away from rivals the opposition Indian National Congress.

Congress was on target to win a majority solely in Telangana, a affluent southern state.

The wipeout in northern India, if confirmed, will deal a blow to efforts by the opposition get together to safe its place as the principle challenger subsequent yr. The nationwide elections, when Modi hopes to safe a 3rd time period as prime minister, are anticipated to start out in April.

“Modi’s appeal is still very strong in the Hindi heartland,” mentioned Asim Ali, a political commentator based mostly in Delhi. The prime minister and his allies would now “get a free hand to run the 2024 campaign. Had the BJP done badly in these elections, I think dissension would have begun,” Ali mentioned.

Smriti Irani, a BJP minister, mentioned the outcomes had been proof of “Modi Magic” — what get together loyalists name the prime minister’s private recognition and skill to win votes.

The get together leaned closely on the prime minister to guide their campaigning for the elections, which had been staggered over November. Modi spent weeks travelling throughout the states to tout the BJP’s report.

A smaller fifth state, Mizoram in India’s north-east, will report its outcomes on Monday. The election there’s primarily a contest between regional events, with restricted bearing on nationwide politics.

The greatest upset was in Congress-ruled Chhattisgarh, a mineral-rich state that pollsters had anticipated the opposition to retain. As of Sunday afternoon the BJP was main in 54 of the state’s 90 seats, based on the Election Commission of India, representing a achieve of 39 seats from the earlier state election in 2018.

Political scientists say there’s restricted proof of correlation between the state and nationwide outcomes. However, the consequence leaves Congress trying weakened at a vital time for the historic get together, which dominated Indian politics for many years till Modi’s ascent to the premiership in 2014.

Supriya Shrinate, a spokesperson for Congress, acknowledged the ends in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh had been “deeply shocking”.

“The way we read the election and the kind of feedback we were getting from the ground was very different,” she advised an Indian tv channel.

The get together, which is managed by the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, had been trying to construct electoral momentum after defeating the BJP within the southern state of Karnataka earlier this yr. But Sunday’s outcomes are set to go away Congress in outright management of only one state in northern India, Himachal Pradesh within the Himalayan mountains.

Analysts mentioned this might diminish Congress’s energy within the nationwide opposition alliance, recognized by its acronym INDIA, which is ready to satisfy inside days to organize its technique for subsequent yr.

“There is a much greater need for opposition unity,” Ali mentioned. “The Congress party has to be humble enough to accept that it does not have a [broad] support base in the north.”