Towards the late 18th century, as new applied sciences emerged in textile and associated industries, there was a rising concern about potential mass unemployment (which, certainly, was a sound concern). 

Textile employees in elements of England took it upon themselves to sneak into factories late at night time and destroy all machines that they had been afraid had been placing them out of labor. They opposed progress as a result of they had been afraid it might make them worse off.

Throughout historical past, we appear to have a posh relationship with know-how. On one hand, we stretch our arms open to simply accept the proliferation of it and infrequently get swooned by its magic. 

On the opposite hand, we’re additionally mistrustful of tech progress, petrified of what impact one thing new could have on our lives. This dichotomy is rising evident within the apprehension surrounding the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) and, to a lesser extent, the AI revolution.

Technological progress results in the lack of jobs – as typical knowledge goes. And so, after I go searching, my associates are involved, my colleagues are nervous, and my college students are terrified that by the point they graduate, what they’re coaching for could have been utterly automated. Everyone is nervous that the likes of ChatGPT will make them redundant, but nobody appears to have the ability to cease utilizing it.

The fascinating factor is that these anxieties might be grounded in actuality. By the time many younger adults graduate from faculties and universities, the roles they aspire to could now not exist. This is true not solely in Bangladesh, however globally. Despite this actuality, I nonetheless refuse to concede that technological development results in making the human workforce irrelevant.

Here is a straightforward thought experiment: When we hint the evolution of know-how over time, a prevalent sample emerges – a constant upward development. As time progresses, our utilisation of know-how has not solely elevated however has additionally embraced developments. 

Similarly, inspecting the historic trajectory of employment reveals a parallel development development. Over the many years, the workforce has expanded steadily. As an economist, I have to add that it is a grossly oversimplified method of analysing the state of affairs, however it serves the aim of this text.

So, what precisely is occurring right here? If higher know-how results in the lack of jobs, why are we hiring extra individuals in the present day than we had been in 1950 or in 1750 or in 1550?

Our battle to foretell the impact of know-how

It is at all times troublesome to anticipate the function that know-how will play in development and growth. In truth, the primary economists didn’t even contemplate know-how as being of any significance. 

David Ricardo, for instance, in his technology-neutral analyses, predicted that inhabitants development would outstrip manufacturing development, resulting in mass hunger and famine. Two hundred years later, we’re nonetheless right here, consuming greater than ever.

Some 100 years after Ricardo, Bertrand Russell argued that know-how twice pretty much as good ought to imply that employees work for less than half as lengthy, releasing up the remainder of the day for household, leisure, and different idyllic, leisure actions. Well, right here we’re in 2024, with profoundly higher know-how than what Russell might have ever envisioned, nonetheless working longer hours than ever.

Paul Krugman, a Nobel Laureate economist, proclaimed 25 years in the past that the function of the web in human progress can be no better than the impression of the fax machine. Today, Krugman could be very actively concerned in debates, discussions, and discourse on many on-line platforms.

The level being made is that this: we have no idea how know-how will affect the longer term, how societies will adapt to it, or what new avenues will seem. How will human societies evolve in the course of the 4IR? We have no idea. But we do know one factor – we all know it from historic data, and we all know it from our understanding of human nature: there will probably be no mass-scale unemployment attributable to it.

Humans are supposed to thrive

The concern in regards to the textile employees in England within the 18th century was actual, and their sabotaging machines in factories at night time was out of concern that appeared to hurt their livelihoods.

But right here is one thing that these individuals, the Luddites, couldn’t have foreseen however one thing we must always foresee in the present day, almost about the 4IR— the human urge for food is never-ending.

Even the wealthiest individuals two centuries in the past could have had no more than ten outfits. Why? Because garments had been costly, took a very long time to provide, and the experience to fabricate garments lay with just a few artisan households or guilds. 

What occurred when newer applied sciences had been launched within the trade? In the long term, manufacturing grew to become cheaper and simpler, costs fell, provide rose, and in the present day, I’ve significantly extra (and higher high quality) garments in my closet than the royalty from two centuries in the past.

And globally, can we rent extra individuals within the clothes and textile trade in the present day than we did in the course of the time of the Luddites? Yes, we do. The Luddites weren’t technically fallacious; they had been simply too targeted on the quick run.

If the 4IR enhances our capabilities a lot that one particular person will be capable of do the work of 5, that doesn’t imply 4 individuals will probably be made unemployed. Let us not be alarmists. 

When one particular person can do the work of 5, he is not going to earn 5 occasions extra. He could earn twice as a lot, or thrice as a lot. That implies that the typical value of those providers will fall. Which in flip implies that the demand for these providers will rise. And that results in extra job alternatives. 

It will not be the work you’ve got at all times dreamt of getting. In truth, in all probability, you may be doing a job that didn’t exist final yr. But will probably be work, and it’ll pay you a wage that matches your expertise.

What’s the takeaway?

I’ve been a trainer in some capability for greater than 15 years. If I say that even in the present day, half my college students battle to make use of the suitable key phrases to carry out a easy Google search, I can’t be mendacity. 

I’m not simply speaking about Bangladesh; I’ve educating expertise in three international locations. It is identical in all places. Someone will at all times have to inform the AI what to do, and the demand for these people —to run, function, preserve, restore, and even enhance the brand new know-how— will progressively rise.

Adobe Photoshop has not made graphics designers out of date. If something, each small firm in the present day desires a professionally designed emblem – the trade is flourishing. More graphics designers are gainfully employed in the present day than ever earlier than.

Similarly, calculators haven’t made mathematicians out of date – the truth is, by dashing up the method, we’re doing extra maths in the present day than we had been in the course of the days of the abacus. The solely catch is that you must know tips on how to use a calculator. You can’t stay an abacus loyalist and refuse to be taught. Technology is only for easing up our work; from the information of historical past, I see no future telling me in any other case.