There is a 100 percent chance the NFL stacked the first month of the season to ensure maximum excitement and entertainment. It worked out and we got a massive amount of wildly entertaining games. Almost all of the primetime games have been close, though, so we’ve leaned into the idea of parity abounding.

There is a chance parity isn’t working and the NFL is separating into massive tier splits a la MLB. We’ll have a better idea after Sunday, when we see additional huge chalk and/or home dogs battle through. 

At some point there’s going to be buyback on these huge dogs. The question is when. Given my track record the last two weeks it probably doesn’t happen this week.

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook

NFL Week 8 Picks

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: FOX, NFL Network | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App

Latest Odds:

Arizona Cardinals
-6.5

The Packers wide receiver corp is devastated by Covid infections which will keep Davante Adams and Allen Lazard from playing in this game. But the bigger inactive issue is on the other side, as J.J. Watt will now miss months when he undergoes shoulder surgery. Obviously he’s out for this game and it’s something to monitor with the veteran bringing a high level of play and tons of energy to this defense. Arizona’s been great against the run, I’m curious to see how they fare against a strong run team like Green Bay without Watt out there. I actually like this under a lot because both teams tend to play a little slower and the Packers should try to drag things into the mud without their top receiver. Aaron Jones receiving props are way too low for his role in a game like this. 

The pick: Packers 24, Cardinals 21

Props, Best Bets: Under 50.5, Aaron Jones over receiving yards 35.5

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)

Latest Odds:

New York Jets
+10.5

Look ahead line was Bengals -3.5 at the Jets, but then Cincy smashed the Ravens and Zach Wilson got hurt. Now it’s flown into double figures and I’m not sure you can find an argument outside of “the Bengals will have an emotional letdown after last week” to take the Jets. Mike White is starting and the Jets didn’t do anything well before they went to a backup QB. If Zac Taylor’s gameplan leans on running the ball too much and not attacking a weak secondary, maybe this stays within double digits. But Cincy should be able to name the score if it cranks the pace up and lets Joe Burrow fire downfield to Ja’Marr Chase. 

The pick: Bengals 28, Jets 14

Props, Best Bets: Bengals -10.5

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Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Buffalo Bills
-13.5

The Bills are “just” 4-2 and it could be a little disappointing for them. Josh Allen knows too: he pointed out after falling to the Titans the Bills came out of their bye in 2020 and didn’t lose another game until the playoffs. Last year the Bills also flexed on their division opponents to let them know the division was changing hands. Buffalo went 6-0 in the division, winning those games by an average of 13.8 points for a point differential of +83. They’re already +35 this season after whipping the Dolphins in Miami in Week 1. Things have gotten worse for the Dolphins since — Deshaun Watson rumors are consuming this club, the offensive line isn’t playing well and the defense has fallen apart relative to last year. Their last three opponents have been off a bye and Buffalo is the toughest one yet.

The Pick: Bills 42, Dolphins 14

Bets: Bills -13.5

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Cleveland Browns
-3.5

Look, if you’re betting this game make sure you see an injury report first — Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin are huge for the Browns. Both practiced Wednesday in limited fashion after the mini bye so they’re tracking to be a go here, but this game changes if T.J. Watt is rushing against backups. And Cleveland can run against this Steelers defense if they’re healthy up front and Nick Chubb comes back. Ben Roethlisberger and Chase Claypool are also limited right now. Obviously those guys are important to the Steelers offense. Expect plenty of Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson touches in this game.

The Pick: Browns 17, Steelers 13

Bets: Najee Harris & Diontae Johnson over receptions 

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Atlanta Falcons
-3

Week 8 does not feature the best games on the slate, as you can see from this game. The Panthers started hot and have cratered. The Falcons started slow and have picked things up. Most of it is schedule related — Atlanta beat the Giants, Jets and Jaguars in the last four weeks while the Panthers beat the Jets, Saints (weird game, who knows) and Texans in the first three weeks. The Falcons lost to WFT while the Panthers took bad L’s to the Eagles and Vikings at home. The lookahead line here was Panthers -2.5 and I think it’s a coin flip, so I’ll take the points. This could turn into a wild shootout or be some kind of slugfest. Anything is in play here. I’m kind of tempted to play some Sam Darnold overs because they’ll be so stupid low and Joe Brady badly needs a good game out of him. 

The Pick: Panthers 21, Falcons 20

Bets: Pass

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Indianapolis Colts
-1

The AFC South is at stake here. The Titans are 5-2 but what an October they had: lose to the Jets in overtime, beat the Bills at home in primetime and then hold the Chiefs to three points. Talk about a rollercoaster. The Colts picked things up in a big way over the last three weeks and Carson Wentz is playing well. I want to love the Titans here but I’m worried we see Tennessee just pound the ball into a good Colts defensive run front with Derrick Henry and not have it work out well and then suddenly Indy is lobbing the ball around and Michael Pittman is catching deep balls.  

The Pick: Titans 28, Colts 24

Bets: A.J. Brown and Michael Pittman over receiving yards 

Rams at Texans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Houston Texans
+14.5

Betting on this game might be entirely dependent on Tyrod Taylor and whether or not he plays. The Texans are mildly frisky when Taylor is under center and a total trainwreck when Davis Mills is forced to play. That’s not even the rookie’s fault, it’s just impossible to play well in that situation. If Taylor is back, two touchdowns might be excessive for LA here. But, man, they have smoked bad teams in non-revenge spots and Houston is a really bad team. Maybe the Rams look ahead a little bit with the Titans and 49ers leading into the bye, but I can’t get Matthew Stafford throwing another touchdown pass against the Giants when the Rams were up 31-3. Darrell Henderson overs are a great look here, both rushing and receiving. 

The Pick: Rams 38, Texans 14

Bets: Over Darrell Henderson rush yards, receptions, receiving yards

Eagles at Lions 

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Detroit Lions
+3.5

I’m not sure I can handle any more brutal Dan Campbell losses. And I’m worried about the Lions too. They need a W and need one pretty soon. Two brutal late kicks killed them and they couldn’t take down the Rams despite getting an onside kick and multiple fake punts. This feels like the spot. Philly is no doubt the better team here, but a large portion of their offensive success has come in garbage time. Jalen Hurts squats on like seven fantasy points and somehow comes home with 30 because he’s chucking it around and scrambling late. The Lions are garbage time too, but that’s more of a reason to take them because you’re catching points. 

The Pick: Lions 24, Eagles 21

Bets: Nope

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)    

Latest Odds:

Chicago Bears
+4

What a game this is. The 49ers last game was a disaster in a Bomb Cyclone. The Bears simply haven’t been good all year. Their offense is a complete disaster. Justin Fields doesn’t have a fair chance behind Chicago’s offensive line. But what’s going on with the young skill guys for San Francisco is tough to fathom. Brandon Aiyuk looked like a budding superstar last season and now isn’t getting run on offense. Trey Sermon was a third-round pick who just doesn’t get carries despite tons of injuries. And Trey Lance apparently looked “normal and spry” in practice, but isn’t going to start for the 2-4 Niners. This should be a smash spot for the 49ers but even their most ardent supporters (hi!) have to be worried about what’s happening with this team. Khalil Mack is out — if Akiem Hicks is also out I’d love San Francisco here simply because of the run game. 

The Pick: 49ers 24, Bears 17

Bets: Elijah Mitchell over carries and rush yards

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Seattle Seahawks
-3

Geno Smith versus the Jaguars less than seven days after we saw Geno versus Jameis. What a world. The immediate gut reaction to seeing the Seahawks as a short home favorite against the Jags is to assume Seattle will roll. But, again, Geno Smith. The best bet here is the under. Urban Meyer might like running more than Pete Carroll and both coaches likely skew conservative here. The only concern there is if Jacksonville starts slinging it around late but we should be far enough below 40 to not worry about that. If Seattle *wanted* to throw the ball at all, they could do it against this Jaguars secondary. But they won’t. 

The Pick: Seahawks 17, Jaguars 10

Bets: Under 43

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Los Angeles Chargers
-5

Brandon Staley off a bye? Given how quickly he’s become adored by the analytics community, I’m curious to see how he looks in his first week after a bye. But before we crown a new king, it’s probably best to pay respect to the guy who’s been doing this for 20+ years. Bill Belichick’s team isn’t great. The Patriots have three wins and two are against the Jets. The other is against the Texans. It’s not ideal! The Chargers showed before the bye they’re susceptible to the run and the Pats love to run. The Chargers are also not an uptempo team, so the under is a good look here too. It’s a surprisingly big number given these two teams, but it probably factors in Belichick dropping a 50-burger on the Jets last week. If the Chargers get a big lead early taking the Pats is a problem but given how New England defended Justin Herbert last year I’m willing to take the points against a team without an actual homefield advantage.

The Pick: Patriots 24, Chargers 21

Bets: Under 49

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

New Orleans Saints
+5.5

The game of the week somehow features a five-point road fave. The first underrated aspect of this game is it’s on Halloween, in the Superdome and in prime-ish time. It’s not standalone but eyeballs will be on it. The second underrated aspect of this game? The Buccaneers might be taking this personally just like they did last week. Chicago humiliated Tampa last year and Devin White talked openly about it after beating the Eagles, 10 days before the Week 7 matchup. The Saints swept the Bucs last year and won the division. That’s Drew Brees/Sean Payton 2, Tom Brady 0. There is no chance Brady’s OK with that and now Payton doesn’t have Brees. It’s a tough environment and the Saints defense is good but Brady is on a 2007 style Vengeance Tour. New Orleans is going to feed Alvin Kamara in the pass game here, so look that way for props. 

The Pick: Buccaneers 35, Saints 28

Bets: Kamara over receptions, receiving yards

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: FOX | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Denver Broncos
-3

Look at this gem of a game. What’s amazing about both of these teams is the defenses have cratered completely. Everyone expected both of these clubs to have top-10 defenses and they’re just not good. The over is a great look here with potential deep shots against bad defenses and several big downfield playmakers like Terry McLaurin and Courtland Sutton. Jerry Jeudy back for the Broncos makes me nervous but Teddy Bridgewater didn’t look right last week. There’s definitely some Drew Lock possibility here and there’s too much turnover potential to back the Broncos, even at home.

The Pick: Washington 27, Broncos 21

Bets: Over 43, Terry McLaurin over receiving yards

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Minnesota Vikings
+1.5

Massive shootout potential here despite the fact both teams want to run the ball a ton. If the Cowboys start firing off scores — and they should given the lack of the Vikings ability to stop the run — Minnesota will dive right into cranking up the play total if the Cowboys score early. They will, because this offense was averaging 39 points per game in the four games before the bye and they weren’t even elite in red zone conversion. The Vikings pass offense can sling it around when they’re enticed to; if you get a good number on a live over in this game it’s a great bet. 

The Pick: Cowboys 38, Vikings 31

Bets: Over

Giants at Chiefs

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Kansas City Chiefs
-9.5

The Chiefs have played the worst football they’ve ever played with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in town. And they’re still 10-point faves over the Giants on Monday Night Football. I don’t really love jumping on the Giants here but the Chiefs defense is bad enough they could easily cough up three or four touchdowns to Daniel Jones.

The Pick: Chiefs 24, Giants 17

Bets: TBD

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