Nearly 1,000 Victorian healthcare workers currently have COVID-19, raising concerns about the capacity of the workforce and health system to deal with the continuing coronavirus crisis.

Of the 7,808 active infections confirmed by Saturday, 998 were healthcare workers — a huge jump of 140 since Friday and a doubling in cases in less than a fortnight.

A further 1,688 active cases are linked to aged care settings; a mix of workers, residents and some close contacts.

“The rate of growth is something that is of profound concern,” emergency physician Stephen Parnis said.

“Health workers … have been infected with the virus in a number of settings, in the community as well. But my worry is that the numbers getting infected at work now are going up.

“We need to understand how and why and where we’re getting infected as a matter of absolute urgency.”

The most recent data, provided by the Victorian Government on Thursday, showed nurses accounted for about 42 per cent of the cases.

Just over 50 per cent were “other healthcare” workers — which includes disability workers, pharmacists, paramedics and other allied health professionals.

What was not reflected in the daily numbers is how the infections were contracted, or the healthcare workers taken out of the workforce to isolate for 14 days after possibly being exposed to the virus.

Victoria recorded 466 cases on Saturday, 450 on Friday and 471 on Thursday — down from an all-time high of 725 on Wednesday.

Community transmission cases, where the source of the infection cannot be traced back to a known source, rose by 130 on Saturday.

While health authorities and experts believe there are signs Victoria’s coronavirus numbers are stabilising, Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said infections needed to be driven down more.

“We can’t have 500 cases every single day and the associated morbidity, hospitalisation, intensive care requirements and debts that are associated with that number every day,” Professor Sutton said on Saturday.

Hospitals under pressure even as ‘better news’ emerges

Professor Sutton said the estimate for the effective reproduction rate was sitting below 1 at around 0.9 — meaning on average, each active case infects 0.9 people.

He said the stage 3 restrictions imposed on Melbourne had averted an estimated 20,000 cases, but that it could be more than a week before stage 4 restrictions have an impact.

“It’s better news than we had last week and the week before, that’s for sure,” said Nancy Baxter, head of the Melbourne School of Population and Global Health at Melbourne University.

Professor Baxter said she was confident the stage 4 lockdown in Melbourne and stage 3 stay-at-home orders across the rest of Victoria would drive the numbers down.

However, a portion of each day’s positive cases is likely to become unwell, possibly requiring hospitalisation, even as numbers trend downwards.

There were 592 people with COVID-19 in Victorian hospitals on Saturday, including 44 in intensive care.

The state has been preparing surge capacity since the pandemic began in January, and has cut non-urgent elective surgeries to free up space.

Professor Baxter said while she did not predict the state would reach its ICU capacity, the current level of infection was still “straining the healthcare system”.

“It means basically, the hospital has to focus on COVID, and basically COVID only,” she said.

“And that’s not tenable. So even if we don’t have every ICU bed taken up, we need to get these numbers down to allow these hospitals to do things other than treat COVID patients.”

Concerns have also been raised that aged care residents being transferred to hospitals could place further strain on the emergency system.

Dr Parnis said with 400 to 500 cases per day in Victoria, “that is something that is putting enormous pressure on the healthcare system at the moment”.

“What concerns me is if we are feeling the pressure, the strain on resources, people and ill-health workers with 44 intensive care patients, what would that be like as numbers increase?” he said.

He said with thousands of cases averted, Victorians should take some credit for what they had already done, but that the “harsh, painful lockdown is absolutely necessary” to prevent a further surge.

Coronavirus ‘exploits the weak and frail’ in health systems

There have been recurring concerns about the personal protective equipment (PPE) available to healthcare workers during the pandemic.

Responding to concerns about a shortage, Premier Daniel Andrews said with tens of millions of gloves and millions of surgical masks and face shields in the state, there is more than enough PPE for those on the front line.

Dr Parnis said while access to PPE was one thing, another key element was making sure it was used appropriately in healthcare settings.

He said there were common reports of people having to take potentially infected clothing home to wash it, or inadequate space in break rooms for people to safely distance.

“Coronavirus, in the same way it exploits the weak and frail in our community … it does the same thing to our health system,” he said.

Dr Parnis said the other obvious concern was the number of healthcare workers who would become very sick as a result of their illness.

A number of doctors have spent time in intensive care units, including a doctor in his 30s.

“When you’re a health worker, you’ve got that knowledge about what the virus is capable of doing. You’ve seen it,” he said.

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Other than the immediate physical health risks, Dr Parnis said one of the biggest dangers faced by the community was deteriorating mental health.

Dr Parnis said he himself had been dreaming about the virus, “where I am anxious or worried about being in close proximity to people”.

“Now, if I’m doing that as a senior medical professional, I worry about every other Melburnian and Victorian,” he said.

“And I think continual attention and care to our mental health as well as our physical health is one of the highest priorities that we can have at the moment.”