NEW DELHI: After beating India in their opening encounter, Pakistan will be facing New Zealand in Sharjah on Tuesday in the ongoing T20 World Cup.
The Pakistani team will be a charged-up unit against the Black Caps, not just because of the high of beating India for the first time ever in a World Cup match, but also because of the Kiwis’ recent withdrawal from a scheduled series against Pakistan citing a security threat which, according to the host country, did not exist.

The pull-out hampered Pakistan’s World Cup preparations which took a further hit when England too withdrew from their scheduled tour of the country.
The format of the current edition of the T20 World Cup is a very tough one. Out of 6 teams in a group, as many as 4 will be knocked out. Only 4 of 12 teams from the Super 12 stage overall will go through to the next round, which are the semi-finals.

It’s no secret that the loss to Pakistan has hurt India’s chances of making the semi-finals. As things stand, if Pakistan and NZ both beat the three lower ranked teams in the group (Namibia, Scotland and Afghanistan), India will have to win all their remaining matches to make it to the semi-finals.
So what do the permutations and combinations look like as far as Group 2 of the Super 12 stage is concerned?
Remember, out of the four teams (Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Namibia and Scotland) which qualified for the Super 12 stage, the two lowest ranked teams – Namibia (19th in the ICC T20 team rankings) and Scotland (14th in the ICC T20I team rankings) are in India and Pakistan’s group.
So the 6 teams in this group are: India, Pakistan, New Zealand, Afghanistan, Namibia and Scotland.

With their 130-run win against Scotland, Afghanistan are at the top of the points table in Group 2 currently with a Net Run Rate of +6.500. Pakistan are in second spot with a Net Run Rate of +0.973. India find themselves in 5th place, behind Afghanistan (1 win in 1 match), Pakistan (1 win in 1 match), Namibia (Yet to start Super 12 campaign) and New Zealand (Yet to start Super 12 campaign) and ahead of only Scotland (1 loss in 1 match), on NRR. India’s NRR is a very low -0.973.
Now, ostensibly, the race for the semi-finals is expected to boil down to one between India, Pakistan and New Zealand. If we take a hypothetical that the three highest ranked teams in this group – India, Pakistan and New Zealand (who are ranked 2nd, 3rd and 4th respectively in the ICC T20I team rankings) all beat Namibia, Scotland and Afghanistan, then these three teams (India, Pak and NZ) will have 6 points each from these three wins.
Now, let’s start adding further points to this. Pakistan have already beaten India. That means their points tally (on the hypothesis that they will beat Namibia, Scotland and Afghanistan) after these 4 games will be 8. If Pakistan beat New Zealand today, that rises to a total of 10. And that is the maximum a team can achieve in the Super 12 stage. Pakistan will of course sail into the semi-finals in this scenario.

Now, if New Zealand beat Pakistan today and taking the hypothesis that they will also beat Namibia, Scotland and Afghanistan, then their points tally after these 4 games will be 8. If they beat India, on Sunday, October 31, then they can reach a total of 10 points and march comfortably into the semis.
However, if Pakistan, who are already on 2 points beat NZ today and India manage to beat the Black Caps on Sunday (which is NZs next match at the World Cup), then the Kiwis stay on 0 points, while India earn 2 precious points and taking the hypothesis that the Men in Blue can beat Namibia, Scotland and Afghanistan, India’s points tally will rise to 8 after their remaining four matches. In that scenario, even if we apply the same hypothesis to NZ (that they can beat Namibia, Scotland and Afghanistan), their points tally stays at 6 and India and Pakistan go through to the next round.
So, essentially taking India, Pakistan and New Zealand as the frontrunners for the two semi-final spots from Group 2, four possible scenarios can arise (assuming these three teams all beat Namibia, Scotland and Afghanistan).

It is imperative of course for India to beat NZ in their next match, but for today’s encounter, Indian fans would do well to hope that Pakistan beat NZ. If the Kiwis can stay on 0 points. Remember, Afghanistan too could well be a tricky opposition for Team India, though the Afghans have never beaten India in this format. The week-long break for India might be a good thing in terms of being able to regroup and re-strategise, but it also means waiting and watching what happens in the other matches which has a direct impact on where they stand on the points table.
Remember in case of two teams being tied on points at the Super 12 stage, the parameters used as a tie-breaker will be: Number of wins, followed by NRR, followed by Head to Head result.