Our tipster Jones Knows assaults the primary Premier League fixtures of 2023…

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Tottenham vs Aston Villa, New Year’s Day 2pm, reside on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £250,000!

Tottenham are at all times one defeat away from a full-blown disaster – one could be coming right here.

I’m an enormous believer in Antonio Conte’s strategies however his contract state of affairs, amid reviews of ongoing negotiations, added to his group’s woeful depth early on in video games goes to chunk them in some unspecified time in the future.

And when assessing the match costs right here, the market is simply too skewed in favour of Spurs, who’re so skinny at 8/13 with Sky Bet to beat an enhancing Aston Villa.

Conte’s males have conceded first in every of their final 9 video games in all competitions and have gone 2-0 down in six of these. That is a dependable set of knowledge pointing to severe flaws in the way in which Tottenham method matches.

Eventually, a savvy and shrewd aspect with good defensive nous goes to make Spurs pay. Villa might be that group below Unai Emery and have proven actually constructive indicators with their efficiency ranges in opposition to Manchester United, Brighton and Liverpool. Emery’s group deserved each their wins in opposition to United and Brighton when assessing the efficiency information and created a wholesome anticipated targets determine of 1.44 in opposition to Liverpool in a sport the place conceding first to Jurgen Klopp’s aspect isn’t perfect from a sport state perspective.

There are plenty of methods to get Aston Villa on aspect together with your cash. Keeping it easy and backing them to keep away from defeat at 5/4 with Sky Bet stands out as the key play however Villa to attain first at 15/8 and Villa to be profitable at half-time at 4/1 are also price contemplating.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Aston Villa to win or draw (5/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea, New Year’s Day 4.30pm, reside on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £250,000!

The match costs look about proper to me with Chelsea prone to get the job carried out at odds-on with that further high quality within the remaining third, particularly with Morgan Gibbs-White lacking for the hosts, however Forest can be digging in and creating issues for the Londoners at numerous factors.

One space that will show fertile for them is set-pieces.

I believed Chelsea appeared shaky when defending their field below strain from corners and free-kicks in opposition to Bournemouth, with the Cherries making a wholesome 0.29 price of anticipated targets by way of set-pieces with Lloyd Kelly and Dominic Solanke each lacking the goal from shut vary. Since Graham Potter took cost, Chelsea’s total defensive metrics from set-pieces are nosediving. They have shipped 33 pictures from such situations to an anticipated targets backdrop of three.18 – solely six groups have a worse output from the day Potter took over.

With that in thoughts, it is definitely price wanting on the Forest centre-backs to threaten.

Since Joe Worrall and Willy Boly have been paired collectively 4 video games in the past, they’ve had eight pictures between them and that is not together with Boly’s disallowed objective in opposition to Manchester United.

Worrall is 13/8 with Sky Bet and Boly is 2/1 to have at the least one shot within the participant pictures market. Both these costs look huge – and I’ll be backing the 4/5 on provide for both to have at the least one shot vs Chelsea as a part of my 3/1 New Year’s Day double.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Either Joe Worrall or Willy Boly to have a shot on goal (4/5 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)