Republican Monica De La Cruz-Hernandez flipped the fifteenth House congressional district in one among Texas’ solely remaining aggressive districts. In this file photograph, she talks in her workplace in Alamo, Texas, July 8, 2021.

Eric Gay/AP

cover caption

toggle caption

Eric Gay/AP

Republican Monica De La Cruz-Hernandez flipped the fifteenth House congressional district in one among Texas’ solely remaining aggressive districts. In this file photograph, she talks in her workplace in Alamo, Texas, July 8, 2021.

Eric Gay/AP

Though extra aggressive than any earlier election cycle, the Rio Grande Valley’s midterm races re-elected a lot of its Democratic representatives.

Republican candidates throughout the Rio Grande Valley in Texas perpetuated a nationwide narrative {that a} “red wave” of GOP help would end up to the polls on November 8. Blaming rising inflation and growing migrant crossings on President Joe Biden’s insurance policies, their stances had been proven in a flurry of assault ads throughout native information networks.

But it appears that evidently is all it was: a story, after the GOP managed to flip just one state home seat and one congressional district. Even within the state’s greatest race, Republican Governor Greg Abbott didn’t carry any of the Rio Grande Valley’s 4 counties.

Mayra Flores, Cassy Garcia and Monica De La Cruz turned the face of the area’s Republican hopes, dubbing themselves the “triple threat.” All campaigned as anti-abortion, border-wall-supporting candidates towards the Democratic Party institution, describing their opponents as corrupt or too radical for South Texas.

Of the three candidates, solely De La Cruz, an insurance coverage agent based mostly in Alamo, was elected. She received in Texas’ fifteenth congressional district and is the primary Republican to be elected to the seat. De La Cruz benefitted from a redrawn district that favored Republicans and would have been carried former President Donald Trump by 2.8 proportion factors. Previously, the district favored President Joe Biden by 1.9 proportion factors.

Flores, the incumbent of Texas’s thirty fourth congressional district, misplaced to three-time Congressman Vicente Gonzalez by 8 proportion factors. Garcia, a former staffer for Senator Ted Cruz, misplaced to nine-term Congressman Henry Cuellar by 13 proportion factors.

Of the three, Flores was the one workplace holder. She was elected throughout a particular election after then-incumbent Filemon Vela left the seat to work with a Washington, D.C., lobbying agency. Flores’ election towards average, pro-life Democrat Dan Sanchez signaled to the GOP a doable turning of the voters within the RGV, after it had already invested closely into De La Cruz’s race at the start of the yr.

But the margin of Flores’ win in June was small, securing solely 50.9% of the vote.

So, too, are the margins of GOP voting will increase within the Rio Grande Valley throughout this midterm, in comparison with the 2020 election. According to the Secretary of State’s voter information, the area noticed solely small will increase, and even decreases, in GOP voter turnout in comparison with 2020.

Like Abbott, not one of the Republican candidates carried a Rio Grande Valley county of their races.

GOP weighs wins amid losses in South Texas

The GOP’s heavy funding within the space, although, was not with out some positive aspects within the historically Democratic districts. Though turnout could have been restricted from 2020 to current, in comparison with the 2018 midterms, all 4 Rio Grande Valley counties noticed GOP voter turnout enhance between 10 and 18 proportion factors.

Republicans did have some victories down the poll, although not in lots of the excessive profile congressional races. Some of these wins got here in districts that beforehand favored Democrats which have been redrawn to lean in direction of Republicans. As reported by the McAllen Monitor, these redistricting efforts had been paramount to the GOP’s successes within the Rio Grande Valley.

Cameron County GOP Chair and Texas Republican Party State Committeewoman Morgan Cisneros Graham wasn’t shocked by the outcomes, contemplating how the districts had been drawn. De La Cruz and Flores’ campaigns additionally had extra nationwide and state funding, in comparison with native races.

Graham says the “red wave” narrative–a time period she says she’s by no means been a fan of–was useful for the nationwide and state GOP to fundraise from. But hardly any of that funding made it to native races.

“When people saw all this money getting pumped into our area, it was only being pumped into two federal races,” Graham mentioned.

She continued, “we did not see that (investment) going down at all into those local offices. On top of that, because the focus is at the top of the ticket, it always hurts your down ballot.”

Democrats push again towards notion of rising GOP energy

When it got here to native races within the Rio Grande Valley, many of the Democratic incumbents had been reelected. Regardless, the GOP’s positive aspects within the RGV involved the state’s Democratic occasion.

In an inner memo acquired by the Texas Tribune, the Texas Democratic Party blamed GOP darkish cash, gerrymandering, voting restrictions from Senate Bill 1 and lack of help from nationwide Democratic organizations for the occasion not “making even larger gains” in the course of the election.

“Not only did their insidious cracking-and-packing strategy simply make several seats more Republican-leaning, it also intentionally made ‘safe Democratic’ districts–ones Republicans knew they could afford to lose–even bluer,” Texas Democratic Party govt director Jamarr Brown mentioned within the memo. “These less competitive races means less money invested and less overall Democratic campaigning–which, as we saw, results in lower awareness and lower turnout across the board.”

But the GOP’s positive aspects within the space usually are not solely sudden. The Republican Party’s funding within the space, within the type of heavy marketing campaign contributions, opening a “Hispanic Community Center,” and grassroots organizing have immediately engaged a base that has felt ignored by the Democratic Party.

“Those Democratic leaders that have been in power in the Valley for a long time, they haven’t traditionally worked very hard to expand the electorate,” Cecilia Ballí, cultural anthropologist and journalist, advised NPR. “So I don’t think it’s only the national Democratic party that has been taking Latinos for granted: I think that the local Democratic establishment has done the same. And so you have some disaffected voters who are willing to try something different.”

Flores capitalized on this sense in her marketing campaign, saying the Democratic Party had deserted South Texas.

After the election, Texas Democratic Party Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa noticed the GOP’s positive aspects within the Rio Grande Valley as a “fluke,” calling De La Cruz’s election as an indication of the GOP gaining floor “complete bullshit.”

“There was no red wave in South Texas,” Hinojosa mentioned in a press release. “Republicans in Austin and D.C. should understand that if–even in a year where Republicans were supposed to win across the country in a landslide, they could barely eke out this one win here–they should probably pack up their bags and get the hell out of our region.”

Hinojosa’s confidence comes from Democrats managing to carry onto many of the Rio Grande Valley seats up for election. Still, within the closely Latino Rio Grande Valley, Democrats noticed slender wins – and slender losses – that some say ought to give them pause.

“The thing that we’re not going back to is this notion that the Democratic party automatically has Latino voter support because they are ethnically ‘other,’ and because they are working class,” Ballí mentioned.

Local GOP Chair Morgan Cisneros Graham says the occasion is now wanting in direction of the 2024 main elections, specializing in native, judicial and college board elections within the Rio Grande Valley. Claiming the metric for what constitutes a “red wave” in Texas politics was by no means outlined, she says the GOP’s positive aspects had been a optimistic for the occasion.

“If somebody’s more oriented towards foundational races, which I tend to be, then the impression would be that there was no red wave in the RGV,” Graham mentioned. “But if you’re somebody who looks more at the impactful, more legislative-type offices, some would argue, well, it was more of a purple wave and there was progress.”